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Eductive stability in real business cycle models

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  • George W. Evans

    (Université d'Oregon - University of Oregon, University of St. Andrews - University of St. Andrews)

  • Roger Guesnerie

    (CDF - Collège de France - Collège de France, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - École normale supérieure [ENS] - Paris - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)

  • Bruce Mcgough

    (Oregon State University - Oregon State University)

Abstract

We re-examine issues of coordination in the standard RBC model. Can the unique rational expectations equilibrium be “educed” by rational agents who contemplate the possibility of small deviations from equilibrium? Surprisingly, we find that coordination along this line cannot be expected. Rational agents anticipating small but possibly persistent deviations have to face the existence of retroactions that necessarily invalidate any initial tentative “common knowledge” of the future. This "impossibility" theorem for eductive learning is not fully overcome when adaptive learning is incorporated into the framework.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series PSE Working Papers with number halshs-00565011.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00565011

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Keywords: standard RBC model ; coordination;

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  1. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 14181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Pearce, David G, 1984. "Rationalizable Strategic Behavior and the Problem of Perfection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 1029-50, July.
  3. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  4. Hommes, Cars & Wagener, Florian, 2010. "Does eductive stability imply evolutionary stability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 25-39, July.
  5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
  6. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1984. "Rationalizable Strategic Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 1007-28, July.
  7. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  8. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Multivariate Models," DELTA Working Papers 2003-28, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  9. R. Guesnerie, 2002. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 439-480, March.
  10. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  11. Evans, G.W. & Guesnerie, R., 1992. "Rationalizability, Strong Rationality and Expectational Stability," DELTA Working Papers 92-03, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  12. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
  13. Bao, Te & Duffy, John, 2014. "Adaptive vs. eductive learning: Theory and evidence," Research Report 14002-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  14. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
  15. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  16. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  17. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, October.
  18. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  19. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
  20. Matsui, Akihiko & Oyama, Daisuke, 2006. "Rationalizable foresight dynamics," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-322, August.
  21. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Learning and Macroeconomics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 421-451, 05.
  22. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  23. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 8340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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