Eductive stability in real business cycle models
AbstractWe re-examine issues of coordination in the standard RBC model. Can the unique rational expectations equilibrium be “educed” by rational agents who contemplate the possibility of small deviations from equilibrium? Surprisingly, we find that coordination along this line cannot be expected. Rational agents anticipating small but possibly persistent deviations have to face the existence of retroactions that necessarily invalidate any initial tentative “common knowledge” of the future. This "impossibility" theorem for eductive learning is not fully overcome when adaptive learning is incorporated into the framework.
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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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standard RBC model ; coordination;
Other versions of this item:
- George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie & Bruce McGough, 2010. "Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-16, University of Oregon Economics Department.
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-02-19 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CIS-2011-02-19 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-DGE-2011-02-19 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
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- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011.
"Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
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