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A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

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  • Gambhir, Ajay
  • Schulz, Niels
  • Napp, Tamaryn
  • Tong, Danlu
  • Munuera, Luis
  • Faist, Mark
  • Riahi, Keywan

Abstract

This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a “hypothetical counterfactual baseline” (HCB) scenario and low carbon (“abatement”) scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important.

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  • Gambhir, Ajay & Schulz, Niels & Napp, Tamaryn & Tong, Danlu & Munuera, Luis & Faist, Mark & Riahi, Keywan, 2013. "A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 614-632.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:59:y:2013:i:c:p:614-632
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.04.022
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    2. Lucas, Paul L. & Nielsen, Jens & Calvin, Katherine & L. McCollum, David & Marangoni, Giacomo & Strefler, Jessica & van der Zwaan, Bob C.C. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2015. "Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 705-717.
    3. Wenhui Tian & Pascal da Costa & Jean-Claude Bocquet, 2015. "Inequalities of Sectors CO 2 emissions in China, USA and France, 2010-2050," Working Papers hal-01219769, HAL.
    4. Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhou, Nan & Karali, Nihan & Zhang, Jingjing & Feng, Wei, 2019. "Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 12-26.
    5. Li, Jun & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Cassen, Christophe, 2017. "Aligning domestic policies with international coordination in a post-Paris global climate regime: A case for China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 258-274.
    6. Ying Wang & Peipei Shang & Lichun He & Yingchun Zhang & Dandan Liu, 2018. "Can China Achieve the 2020 and 2030 Carbon Intensity Targets through Energy Structure Adjustment?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-32, October.
    7. Zheng Guo & Pei Liu & Linwei Ma & Zheng Li, 2015. "Effects of Low-Carbon Technologies and End-Use Electrification on Energy-Related Greenhouse Gases Mitigation in China by 2050," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-24, July.
    8. Jing Lin & Boqiang Lin, 2016. "How Much CO 2 Emissions Can Be Reduced in China’s Heating Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-16, July.
    9. Liu, Junling & Yin, Mingjian & Xia-Hou, Qinrui & Wang, Ke & Zou, Ji, 2021. "Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Wang, H. & Ang, B.W. & Su, Bin, 2017. "Assessing drivers of economy-wide energy use and emissions: IDA versus SDA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 585-599.
    11. Xu, Guangyue & Schwarz, Peter & Yang, Hualiu, 2019. "Determining China's CO2 emissions peak with a dynamic nonlinear artificial neural network approach and scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 752-762.
    12. Child, Michael & Breyer, Christian, 2017. "Transition and transformation: A review of the concept of change in the progress towards future sustainable energy systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 11-26.
    13. Huo, Tengfei & Ma, Yuling & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2022. "Carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector through 2060: A dynamic scenario simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    14. Ang, B.W. & Goh, Tian, 2019. "Index decomposition analysis for comparing emission scenarios: Applications and challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 74-87.

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    Keywords

    China; CO2 emissions; Low-carbon technology;
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