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Future bio-energy potential under various natural constraints

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  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.
  • van Vliet, Jasper
  • Stehfest, Elke
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    Abstract

    Potentials for bio-energy have been estimated earlier on the basis of estimates of potentially available land, excluding certain types of land use or land cover (land required for food production and forests). In this paper, we explore how such estimates may be influenced by other factors such as land degradation, water scarcity and biodiversity concerns. Our analysis indicates that of the original bio-energy potential estimate of 150, 80Â EJ occurs in areas classified as from mild to severe land degradation, water stress, or with high biodiversity value. Yield estimates were also found to have a significant impact on potential estimates. A further 12.5% increase in global yields would lead to an increase in bio-energy potential of about 50%. Changes in bio-energy potential are shown to have a direct impact on bio-energy use in the energy model TIMER, although the relevant factor is the bio-energy potential at different cost levels and not the overall potential.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 11 (November)
    Pages: 4220-4230

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:11:p:4220-4230

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    Keywords: Bio-energy Bio-energy potential Integrated assessment;

    References

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    1. Smakhtin, Vladimir U. & Revenga, C. & Doll, P., 2004. "Taking into account environmental water requirements in global-scale water resources assessments," IWMI Books, Reports H031758, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Hoogwijk, Monique & de Vries, Bert & Turkenburg, Wim, 2004. "Assessment of the global and regional geographical, technical and economic potential of onshore wind energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 889-919, September.
    3. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:
    1. J. F. Mercure & P. Salas, 2012. "An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials," Papers 1205.4693, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2012.
    2. Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas, 2012. "On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities," Papers 1209.0708, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2013.
    3. Måns Nilsson & Paul Lucas & Tetsuro Yoshida, 2013. "Towards an Integrated Framework for SDGs: Ultimate and Enabling Goals for the Case of Energy," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(10), pages 4124-4151, September.
    4. Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas, 2013. "An assessment of energy resources for global decarbonisation," 4CMR Working Paper Series 002, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research.
    5. Pablo Salas, 2013. "Literature Review of Energy-Economics Models, Regarding Technological Change and Uncertainty," 4CMR Working Paper Series 003, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research.
    6. Selosse, Sandrine & Ricci, Olivia & Maïzi, Nadia, 2013. "Fukushima's impact on the European power sector: The key role of CCS technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 305-312.
    7. Lauri, Pekka & Havlík, Petr & Kindermann, Georg & Forsell, Nicklas & Böttcher, Hannes & Obersteiner, Michael, 2014. "Woody biomass energy potential in 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 19-31.
    8. Massimo Tavoni & Shoibal Chakravarty & Robert Socolow, 2011. "Safe vs. Fair: A Formidable Trade-off in Tackling Climate Change," Working Papers 2011.61, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Derek Lemoine & Sabine Fuss & Jana Szolgayova & Michael Obersteiner & Daniel Kammen, 2012. "The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 141-162, July.

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