Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ou, Xunmin
  • Zhang, Xiliang
  • Chang, Shiyan
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4YRGJHV-3/2/c77edd904fe689e7dcc12142203c2b14
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 8 (August)
    Pages: 3943-3956

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:8:p:3943-3956

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Alternative fuel Road transport China;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Jaramillo, Paulina & Samaras, Constantine & Wakeley, Heather & Meisterling, Kyle, 2009. "Greenhouse gas implications of using coal for transportation: Life cycle assessment of coal-to-liquids, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2689-2695, July.
    2. Yan, Xiaoyu & Crookes, Roy J., 2009. "Life cycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for road transportation fuels in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2505-2514, December.
    3. Zhao, Jimin & Melaina, Marc W., 2006. "Transition to hydrogen-based transportation in China: Lessons learned from alternative fuel vehicle programs in the United States and China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1299-1309, July.
    4. Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang & Chang, Shiyan, 2010. "Alternative fuel buses currently in use in China: Life-cycle fossil energy use, GHG emissions and policy recommendations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 406-418, January.
    5. Schafer, Andreas, 1998. "The global demand for motorized mobility," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 455-477, August.
    6. Yan, Xiaoyu & Crookes, Roy J., 2009. "Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 658-668, February.
    7. Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang & Chang, Shiyan & Guo, Qingfang, 2009. "Energy consumption and GHG emissions of six biofuel pathways by LCA in (the) People's Republic of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(Supplemen), pages S197-S208, November.
    8. World Bank, 2007. "World Development Indicators 2007," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 8150, October.
    9. Wang, GuoHong & Wang, YunXia & Zhao, Tao, 2008. "Analysis of interactions among the barriers to energy saving in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1879-1889, June.
    10. He, Kebin & Huo, Hong & Zhang, Qiang & He, Dongquan & An, Feng & Wang, Michael & Walsh, Michael P., 2005. "Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status, future trends, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1499-1507, August.
    11. Xingjun Zhao & Yanrui Wu, 2007. "Determinants of China’s Energy Imports: An Empirical Analysis," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 07-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    12. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Lu, Xuedu, 2008. "Comparison of CO2 emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China's five sectors in 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1181-1194, March.
    13. Hu, Zhiyuan & Tan, Piqiang & Yan, Xiaoyu & Lou, Diming, 2008. "Life cycle energy, environment and economic assessment of soybean-based biodiesel as an alternative automotive fuel in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1654-1658.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Kamal Soundararajan & Elspeth Thomson, 2013. "Asia and European transport biofuels stalled at the same place?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 247-263, September.
    2. Liu, Wen & Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2013. "Modelling the transport system in China and evaluating the current strategies towards the sustainable transport development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 347-357.
    3. Zhang, Yong & Yu, Yifeng & Zou, Bai, 2011. "Analyzing public awareness and acceptance of alternative fuel vehicles in China: The case of EV," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7015-7024.
    4. He, Ling-Yun & Chen, Yu, 2013. "Thou shalt drive electric and hybrid vehicles: Scenario analysis on energy saving and emission mitigation for road transportation sector in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 30-40.
    5. Ma, Linwei & Geng, Jia & Li, Weqi & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2013. "The development of natural gas as an automotive fuel in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 531-539.
    6. Bueno, Gorka, 2012. "Analysis of scenarios for the reduction of energy consumption and GHG emissions in transport in the Basque Country," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 1988-1998.
    7. Ferreira, João-Pedro & Barata, Eduardo & Ramos, Pedro Nogueira & Cruz, Luis, 2014. "Economic, social, energy and environmental assessment of inter-municipality commuting: The case of Portugal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 411-418.
    8. Mahlia, T.M.I. & Tohno, S. & Tezuka, T., 2012. "History and current status of the motor vehicle energy labeling and its implementation possibilities in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 1828-1844.
    9. Zhang, Chuanguo & Nian, Jiang, 2013. "Panel estimation for transport sector CO2 emissions and its affecting factors: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 918-926.
    10. Yao, Mingfa & Liu, Haifeng & Feng, Xuan, 2011. "The development of low-carbon vehicles in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5457-5464, September.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:8:p:3943-3956. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.