IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v242y2019icp12-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Khanna, Nina
  • Fridley, David
  • Zhou, Nan
  • Karali, Nihan
  • Zhang, Jingjing
  • Feng, Wei

Abstract

Energy efficiency has played an important role in helping China achieve its domestic and international energy and climate change mitigation targets, but more significant near-term actions to decarbonize are needed to help China and the world meet the Paris Agreement goals. Accelerating electrification and maximizing supply-side and demand-side renewable adoption are two recent strategies being considered in China, but few bottom-up modeling studies have evaluated the potential near-term impacts of these strategies across multiple sectors. To fill this research gap, we use a bottom-up national end-use model that integrates energy supply and demand systems and conduct scenario analysis to evaluate even lower CO2 emissions strategies and subsequent pathways for China to go beyond cost-effective efficiency and fuel switching. We find that maximizing non-conventional electric and renewable technologies can help China peak its national CO2 emissions as early as 2025, with significant additional CO2 emission reductions on the order of 7 Gt CO2 annually by 2050. Beyond potential CO2 reductions from power sector decarbonization, significant potential lies in fossil fuel displaced by renewable heat in industry. These results suggest accelerating the utilization of non-conventional electric and renewable technologies present additional CO2 reduction opportunities for China, but new policies and strategies are needed to change technology choices in the demand sectors. Managing the pace of electrification in tandem with the pace of decarbonization of the power sector will also be crucial to achieving CO2 reductions from the power sector in a scenario of increased electrification.

Suggested Citation

  • Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhou, Nan & Karali, Nihan & Zhang, Jingjing & Feng, Wei, 2019. "Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 12-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:242:y:2019:i:c:p:12-26
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919305240
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.116?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuan, Xinmei & Li, Lili & Gou, Huadong & Dong, Tingting, 2015. "Energy and environmental impact of battery electric vehicle range in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 75-84.
    2. Shakeel, Shah Rukh & Takala, Josu & Zhu, Lian-Dong, 2017. "Commercialization of renewable energy technologies: A ladder building approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 855-867.
    3. Hong, Lixuan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhao, Yongqiang & Sandholt, Kaare, 2016. "Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 47-55.
    4. Peng, Wei & Yang, Junnan & Lu, Xi & Mauzerall, Denise L., 2018. "Potential co-benefits of electrification for air quality, health, and CO2 mitigation in 2030 China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 511-519.
    5. Nan Zhou & Nina Khanna & Wei Feng & Jing Ke & Mark Levine, 2018. "Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 978-984, November.
    6. Zeng, Ming & Yang, Yongqi & Wang, Lihua & Sun, Jinghui, 2016. "The power industry reform in China 2015: Policies, evaluations and solutions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 94-110.
    7. Mekhilef, S. & Saidur, R. & Safari, A., 2011. "A review on solar energy use in industries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 1777-1790, May.
    8. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Bahn, Olivier & Frenette, Erik & Sigvaldason, Oskar, 2017. "Exploring deep decarbonization pathways to 2050 for Canada using an optimization energy model framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 774-785.
    9. Hannu Suopajärvi & Timo Fabritius, 2013. "Towards More Sustainable Ironmaking—An Analysis of Energy Wood Availability in Finland and the Economics of Charcoal Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-20, March.
    10. Qi, Tianyu & Winchester, Niven & Karplus, Valerie J. & Zhang, Da & Zhang, Xiliang, 2016. "An analysis of China's climate policy using the China-in-Global Energy Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 650-660.
    11. Shi, Jingcheng & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang, 2016. "Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1303-1312.
    12. Peng, Tianduo & Ou, Xunmin & Yuan, Zhiyi & Yan, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Xiliang, 2018. "Development and application of China provincial road transport energy demand and GHG emissions analysis model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 313-328.
    13. McNeil, Michael A. & Feng, Wei & de la Rue du Can, Stephane & Khanna, Nina Zheng & Ke, Jing & Zhou, Nan, 2016. "Energy efficiency outlook in China’s urban buildings sector through 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 532-539.
    14. Davis, Matthew & Ahiduzzaman, Md. & Kumar, Amit, 2018. "How will Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions change by 2050? A disaggregated analysis of past and future greenhouse gas emissions using bottom-up energy modelling and Sankey diagrams," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 754-786.
    15. Tan, Xianchun & Lai, Haiping & Gu, Baihe & Zeng, Yuan & Li, Hui, 2018. "Carbon emission and abatement potential outlook in China's building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 429-439.
    16. Zhao, Weigang & Cao, Yunfei & Miao, Bo & Wang, Ke & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2018. "Impacts of shifting China's final energy consumption to electricity on CO2 emission reduction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 359-369.
    17. Gambhir, Ajay & Schulz, Niels & Napp, Tamaryn & Tong, Danlu & Munuera, Luis & Faist, Mark & Riahi, Keywan, 2013. "A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 614-632.
    18. Kranzl, Lukas & Kalt, Gerald & Müller, Andreas & Hummel, Marcus & Egger, Christiane & Öhlinger, Christine & Dell, Gerhard, 2013. "Renewable energy in the heating sector in Austria with particular reference to the region of Upper Austria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 17-31.
    19. Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru & Fujimori, Shinichiro, 2011. "Assessment of China's climate commitment and non-fossil energy plan towards 2020 using hybrid AIM/CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2875-2887, May.
    20. Khanna, Nina Zheng & Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & Ke, Jing, 2016. "Quantifying the potential impacts of China's power-sector policies on coal input and CO2 emissions through 2050: A bottom-up perspective," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 128-138.
    21. Weigang Zhao & Yunfei Cao & Bo Miao & Ke Wang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2018. "Impacts of shifting China¡¯s final energy consumption to electricity on CO2 emission reduction," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 115, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    22. Ebrahimi, Siavash & Mac Kinnon, Michael & Brouwer, Jack, 2018. "California end-use electrification impacts on carbon neutrality and clean air," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 435-449.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Manfren, Massimiliano & Nastasi, Benedetto & Groppi, Daniele & Astiaso Garcia, Davide, 2020. "Open data and energy analytics - An analysis of essential information for energy system planning, design and operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    2. Fan, Jing-Li & Wang, Jia-Xing & Hu, Jia-Wei & Wang, Yu & Zhang, Xian, 2019. "Optimization of China’s provincial renewable energy installation plan for the 13th five-year plan based on renewable portfolio standards," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    3. Yue, Hui & Worrell, Ernst & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2021. "Impacts of regional industrial electricity savings on the development of future coal capacity per electricity grid and related air pollution emissions – A case study for China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PB).
    4. Cui, Qi & He, Ling & Han, Guoyi & Chen, Hao & Cao, Juanjuan, 2020. "Review on climate and water resource implications of reducing renewable power curtailment in China: A nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    5. Shi, Peng & Wang, Lin-Shu & Schwartz, Paul & Hofbauer, Peter, 2020. "State-wide comparative analysis of the cost saving potential of Vuilleumier heat pumps in residential houses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    6. Zwickl-Bernhard, Sebastian & Auer, Hans, 2022. "Demystifying natural gas distribution grid decommissioning: An open-source approach to local deep decarbonization of urban neighborhoods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    7. Hannan, M.A. & Faisal, M. & Jern Ker, Pin & Begum, R.A. & Dong, Z.Y. & Zhang, C., 2020. "Review of optimal methods and algorithms for sizing energy storage systems to achieve decarbonization in microgrid applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Zhang, Boling & Wang, Qian & Wang, Sixia & Tong, Ruipeng, 2023. "Coal power demand and paths to peak carbon emissions in China: A provincial scenario analysis oriented by CO2-related health co-benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    9. Laha, Priyanka & Chakraborty, Basab, 2021. "Cost optimal combinations of storage technologies for maximizing renewable integration in Indian power system by 2040: Multi-region approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 233-247.
    10. Wang, Xiaokui & Bamisile, Olusola & Chen, Shuheng & Xu, Xiao & Luo, Shihua & Huang, Qi & Hu, Weihao, 2022. "Decarbonization of China's electricity systems with hydropower penetration and pumped-hydro storage: Comparing the policies with a techno-economic analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 65-83.
    11. Wei Wei & Ling He & Xiaofan Li & Qi Cui & Hao Chen, 2022. "The Effectiveness and Trade-Offs of Renewable Energy Policies in Achieving the Dual Decarbonization Goals in China: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-18, May.
    12. Chen, Chao & Lu, Yangsiyu & Banares-Alcantara, Rene, 2019. "Direct and indirect electrification of chemical industry using methanol production as a case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 71-90.
    13. Anselma, Pier Giuseppe, 2022. "Computationally efficient evaluation of fuel and electrical energy economy of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles with smooth driving constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    14. Stefan N. Petrović & Oleksandr Diachuk & Roman Podolets & Andrii Semeniuk & Fabian Bühler & Rune Grandal & Mourad Boucenna & Olexandr Balyk, 2021. "Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    15. Liu, Xiaodong & Chen, Zheng & Si, Yulin & Qian, Peng & Wu, He & Cui, Lin & Zhang, Dahai, 2021. "A review of tidal current energy resource assessment in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Zou, Chenchen & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & You, Kairui & Zhang, Shufan, 2023. "Toward carbon free by 2060: A decarbonization roadmap of operational residential buildings in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    17. Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Cai, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2020. "Low carbon roadmap of residential building sector in China: Historical mitigation and prospective peak," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Junling & Yin, Mingjian & Xia-Hou, Qinrui & Wang, Ke & Zou, Ji, 2021. "Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 813-833.
    3. Huo, Tengfei & Ma, Yuling & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2022. "Carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector through 2060: A dynamic scenario simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    4. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Liu, Bingsheng & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei, 2022. "China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    5. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Zhu, Chen & Li, Xiaodong & Zhu, Weina & Gong, Wei, 2022. "Embodied carbon emissions and mitigation potential in China's building sector: An outlook to 2060," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Gouveia, João Pedro & Seixas, Júlia, 2019. "Electricity, the silver bullet for the deep decarbonisation of the energy system? Cost-effectiveness analysis for Portugal," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 292-303.
    8. Wei Zhou & Alice Moncaster & David M Reiner & Peter Guthrie, 2019. "Estimating Lifetimes and Stock Turnover Dynamics of Urban Residential Buildings in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-18, July.
    9. Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    10. Guo, Siyue & Yan, Da & Hu, Shan & Zhang, Yang, 2021. "Modelling building energy consumption in China under different future scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    11. Tang, Bao-Jun & Guo, Yang-Yang & Yu, Biying & Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2021. "Pathways for decarbonizing China’s building sector under global warming thresholds," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    12. Chen, Huadun & Du, Qianxi & Huo, Tengfei & Liu, Peiran & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2023. "Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    13. Zhang, Xi & Geng, Yong & Shao, Shuai & Wilson, Jeffrey & Song, Xiaoqian & You, Wei, 2020. "China’s non-fossil energy development and its 2030 CO2 reduction targets: The role of urbanization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    14. Yanyan Ke & Lu Zhou & Minglei Zhu & Yan Yang & Rui Fan & Xianrui Ma, 2023. "Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emission Peak of Urban Residential Buildings in China’s Coastal Region: A Case of Fujian Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.
    15. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie & Zhang, Hongzhi, 2017. "The impact of electric vehicles and CCS in the context of emission trading scheme in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 800-816.
    16. Zhang, Shicong & Xu, Wei & Wang, Ke & Feng, Wei & Athienitis, Andreas & Hua, Ge & Okumiya, Masaya & Yoon, Gyuyoung & Cho, Dong woo & Iyer-Raniga, Usha & Mazria, Edward & Lyu, Yanjie, 2020. "Scenarios of energy reduction potential of zero energy building promotion in the Asia-Pacific region to year 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    17. Anselma, Pier Giuseppe, 2022. "Computationally efficient evaluation of fuel and electrical energy economy of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles with smooth driving constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    18. Guang, Fengtao & Wen, Le & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "Energy efficiency improvements and industry transition: An analysis of China's electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    19. Li, Yan & Feng, Tian-tian & Liu, Li-li & Zhang, Meng-xi, 2023. "How do the electricity market and carbon market interact and achieve integrated development?--A bibliometric-based review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    20. Dong, Qichen & Lin, Yongyi & Huang, Jieyu & Chen, Zhongfei, 2020. "Has urbanization accelerated PM2.5 emissions? An empirical analysis with cross-country data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:242:y:2019:i:c:p:12-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.