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Pathways for decarbonizing China’s building sector under global warming thresholds

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  • Tang, Bao-Jun
  • Guo, Yang-Yang
  • Yu, Biying
  • Harvey, L.D. Danny

Abstract

To achieve the long-term climate targets of limiting global warming to well below 2 ℃ and 1.5 ℃ relative to pre-industry levels, China’s building sector must be deeply decarbonized considering its potential of substantial emissions increase. However, how to deploy the energy technologies and how much we need to pay for China’s building sector for achieving the global warming targets remain unknown. Here, we develop a bottom-up national energy technology model for building sector (NET-Building) to explore the optimal energy technology pathways, energy demands as well as costs and benefits for decarbonizing China’s building sector under 2 ℃ and 1.5 ℃ targets. The results show that to meet the 2 ℃ target, most of fossil fuel-fired end-use devices and all traditional biomass-fired end-use devices need to be significantly reduced for the whole building sector. To pursue a more aggressive 1.5 ℃ climate goal, both proportions of the ground source heat pump and solar thermal water heater need to be drastically boosted and reach 100% in commercial sector by 2050. The decarbonization of China’s building sector under 2 ℃ and 1.5 ℃ targets can obtain 44 and 137 trillion CNY net incomes until 2050, respectively.

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  • Tang, Bao-Jun & Guo, Yang-Yang & Yu, Biying & Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2021. "Pathways for decarbonizing China’s building sector under global warming thresholds," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:298:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921006371
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117213
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    2. Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Chen, Liming & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili, 2022. "Historical decarbonization of global commercial building operations in the 21st century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    3. Wang, Xiaoyang & Yu, Biying & An, Runying & Sun, Feihu & Xu, Shuo, 2022. "An integrated analysis of China’s iron and steel industry towards carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    4. Zou, Chenchen & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & You, Kairui & Zhang, Shufan, 2023. "Toward carbon free by 2060: A decarbonization roadmap of operational residential buildings in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    5. Huo, Tengfei & Du, Qianxi & Xu, Linbo & Shi, Qingwei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cai, Weiguang, 2023. "Timetable and roadmap for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China's building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    6. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Liu, Bingsheng & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei, 2022. "China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    7. Weiwei Chen & Yibo Wang & Jia Zhang & Wei Dou & Yaxuan Jiao, 2022. "Planning and Energy–Economy–Environment–Security Evaluation Methods for Municipal Energy Systems in China under Targets of Peak Carbon Emissions and Carbon Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-20, October.

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