IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i22p7731-d681958.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan N. Petrović

    (Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Oleksandr Diachuk

    (Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Roman Podolets

    (Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Andrii Semeniuk

    (Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Fabian Bühler

    (Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Rune Grandal

    (Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Mourad Boucenna

    (Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Olexandr Balyk

    (MaREI, The SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, T23 XE10 Cork, Ireland
    School of Engineering, University College Cork, T12 HW58 Cork, Ireland)

Abstract

This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited academic literature analysing long-term development of the Ukrainian energy system. This study utilises the TIMES-Ukraine model of the whole Ukrainian energy system to address this knowledge gap and to analyse how the energy system may develop until 2050, taking into current and future policies. The results show the development of the Ukrainian energy system based on energy efficiency improvements, electrification and renewable energy. The share of renewables in electricity production is predicted to reach between 45% and 57% in 2050 in the main scenarios with moderate emission reduction ambitions and ~80% in the ambitious alternative scenarios. The cost-optimal solution includes reduction of space heating demand in buildings by 20% in frozen policy and 70% in other scenarios, while electrification of industries leads to reductions in energy intensity of 26–36% in all scenarios except frozen policy. Energy efficiency improvements and emission reductions in the transport sector are achieved through increased use of electricity from 2020 in all scenarios except frozen policy, reaching 40–51% in 2050. The stated policies present a cost-efficient alternative for keeping Ukraine’s greenhouse gas emissions at today’s level.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan N. Petrović & Oleksandr Diachuk & Roman Podolets & Andrii Semeniuk & Fabian Bühler & Rune Grandal & Mourad Boucenna & Olexandr Balyk, 2021. "Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:22:p:7731-:d:681958
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/22/7731/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/22/7731/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petrović, Stefan N. & Karlsson, Kenneth B., 2016. "Residential heat pumps in the future Danish energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 787-797.
    2. Scott, Ian J. & Carvalho, Pedro M.S. & Botterud, Audun & Silva, Carlos A., 2021. "Long-term uncertainties in generation expansion planning: Implications for electricity market modelling and policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Pizarro-Alonso, Amalia & Ravn, Hans & Münster, Marie, 2019. "Uncertainties towards a fossil-free system with high integration of wind energy in long-term planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential for hydrogen and Power-to-Liquid in a low-carbon EU energy system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 617-639.
    5. Ichinohe, Masayuki & Endo, Eiichi, 2006. "Analysis of the vehicle mix in the passenger-car sector in Japan for CO2 emissions reduction by a MARKAL model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(10), pages 1047-1061, October.
    6. Dominković, D.F. & Bačeković, I. & Ćosić, B. & Krajačić, G. & Pukšec, T. & Duić, N. & Markovska, N., 2016. "Zero carbon energy system of South East Europe in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1517-1528.
    7. Andersen, Kristoffer Steen & Wiese, Catharina & Petrovic, Stefan & McKenna, Russell, 2020. "Exploring the role of households’ hurdle rates and demand elasticities in meeting Danish energy-savings target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential of Power-to-Methane in the EU energy transition to a low carbon system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 323-340.
    9. Føyn, T. Helene Ystanes & Karlsson, Kenneth & Balyk, Olexandr & Grohnheit, Poul Erik, 2011. "A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 526-534, February.
    10. Lund, H. & Möller, B. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Dyrelund, A., 2010. "The role of district heating in future renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1381-1390.
    11. Gota, Dan-Ioan & Lund, Henrik & Miclea, Liviu, 2011. "A Romanian energy system model and a nuclear reduction strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6413-6419.
    12. Blesl, Markus & Das, Anjana & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe, 2007. "Role of energy efficiency standards in reducing CO2 emissions in Germany: An assessment with TIMES," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 772-785, February.
    13. Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2018. "Solar driven net zero emission electricity supply with negligible carbon cost: Israel as a case study for Sun Belt countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 87-104.
    14. Petrović, Stefan & Colangelo, Alessandro & Balyk, Olexandr & Delmastro, Chiara & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Simonsen, Mikkel Bosack & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2020. "The role of data centres in the future Danish energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    15. Maurizio Gargiulo & Brian Ó Gallachóir, 2013. "Long-term energy models: Principles, characteristics, focus, and limitations," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 158-177, March.
    16. Hugues, Paul & Assoumou, Edi & Maizi, Nadia, 2016. "Assessing GHG mitigation and associated cost of French biofuel sector: Insights from a TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 288-300.
    17. Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhou, Nan & Karali, Nihan & Zhang, Jingjing & Feng, Wei, 2019. "Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 12-26.
    18. Fernandes, Liliana & Ferreira, Paula, 2014. "Renewable energy scenarios in the Portuguese electricity system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 51-57.
    19. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Gouveia, João Pedro & Seixas, Júlia, 2019. "Electricity, the silver bullet for the deep decarbonisation of the energy system? Cost-effectiveness analysis for Portugal," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 292-303.
    20. Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik & Connolly, David, 2012. "Limiting biomass consumption for heating in 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 160-168.
    21. Amorim, Filipa & Pina, André & Gerbelová, Hana & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia & Vasconcelos, Jorge & Martins, Victor, 2014. "Electricity decarbonisation pathways for 2050 in Portugal: A TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) based approach in closed versus open systems modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-112.
    22. Ćosić, Boris & Krajačić, Goran & Duić, Neven, 2012. "A 100% renewable energy system in the year 2050: The case of Macedonia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 80-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dolf Gielen, 2022. "Energy Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-6, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    3. Borasio, M. & Moret, S., 2022. "Deep decarbonisation of regional energy systems: A novel modelling approach and its application to the Italian energy transition," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Ma, Weiwu & Xue, Xinpei & Liu, Gang, 2018. "Techno-economic evaluation for hybrid renewable energy system: Application and merits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 385-409.
    5. Mikulčić, Hrvoje & Ridjan Skov, Iva & Dominković, Dominik Franjo & Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah & Manan, Zainuddin Abdul & Tan, Raymond & Duić, Neven & Hidayah Mohamad, Siti Nur & Wang, Xuebin, 2019. "Flexible Carbon Capture and Utilization technologies in future energy systems and the utilization pathways of captured CO2," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Sorknæs, Peter & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Chang, Miguel & Madsen, Poul Thøis & Kany, Mikkel Strunge & Skov, Iva Ridjan, 2022. "Smart energy Denmark. A consistent and detailed strategy for a fully decarbonized society," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Toktarova, Alla & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Transition towards 100% renewable power and heat supply for energy intensive economies and severe continental climate conditions: Case for Kazakhstan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Connolly, D. & Wenzel, H. & Østergaard, P.A. & Möller, B. & Nielsen, S. & Ridjan, I. & Karnøe, P. & Sperling, K. & Hvelplund, F.K., 2015. "Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 139-154.
    9. Lake, Andrew & Rezaie, Behanz & Beyerlein, Steven, 2017. "Review of district heating and cooling systems for a sustainable future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 417-425.
    10. Bramstoft, Rasmus & Pizarro-Alonso, Amalia & Jensen, Ida Græsted & Ravn, Hans & Münster, Marie, 2020. "Modelling of renewable gas and renewable liquid fuels in future integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    11. David Maya-Drysdale & Louise Krog Jensen & Brian Vad Mathiesen, 2020. "Energy Vision Strategies for the EU Green New Deal: A Case Study of European Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, May.
    12. Margarida Casau & Diana C. M. Cancela & João C. O. Matias & Marta Ferreira Dias & Leonel J. R. Nunes, 2021. "Coal to Biomass Conversion as a Path to Sustainability: A Hypothetical Scenario at Pego Power Plant (Abrantes, Portugal)," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    13. Bühler, Fabian & Petrović, Stefan & Holm, Fridolin Müller & Karlsson, Kenneth & Elmegaard, Brian, 2018. "Spatiotemporal and economic analysis of industrial excess heat as a resource for district heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 715-728.
    14. Raffaele Salvucci & Stefan Petrović & Kenneth Karlsson & Markus Wråke & Tanu Priya Uteng & Olexandr Balyk, 2019. "Energy Scenario Analysis for the Nordic Transport Sector: A Critical Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Hagos, Dejene Assefa & Gebremedhin, Alemayehu & Zethraeus, Björn, 2014. "Towards a flexible energy system – A case study for Inland Norway," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 41-50.
    16. Bamisile, Olusola & Huang, Qi & Xu, Xiao & Hu, Weihao & Liu, Wen & Liu, Zhou & Chen, Zhe, 2020. "An approach for sustainable energy planning towards 100 % electrification of Nigeria by 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    17. Christian Calvillo, 2023. "The Impacts of Energy Efficiency Modelling in Policy Making," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, February.
    18. Behnam Zakeri & Samuli Rinne & Sanna Syri, 2015. "Wind Integration into Energy Systems with a High Share of Nuclear Power—What Are the Compromises?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-35, March.
    19. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E., 2019. "Review of models for integrating renewable energy in the generation expansion planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1573-1587.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:22:p:7731-:d:681958. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.