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Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China

Author

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  • Hong, Lixuan
  • Zhou, Nan
  • Feng, Wei
  • Khanna, Nina
  • Fridley, David
  • Zhao, Yongqiang
  • Sandholt, Kaare

Abstract

China hosts a large amount of building stocks, which is nearly 50 billion square meters. Moreover, annual new construction is growing fast, representing half of the world's total. The trend is expected to continue through the year 2050. Impressive demand for new residential and commercial construction, relative shorter average building lifetime, and higher material intensities have driven massive domestic production of energy intensive building materials such as cement and steel. This paper developed a bottom-up building stock turnover model to project the growths, retrofits and retirements of China's residential and commercial building floor space from 2010 to 2050. It also applied typical material intensities and energy intensities to estimate building materials demand and energy consumed to produce these building materials. By conducting scenario analyses of building lifetime, it identified significant potentials of building materials and energy demand conservation. This study underscored the importance of addressing building material efficiency, improving building lifetime and quality, and promoting compact urban development to reduce energy and environment consequences in China.

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  • Hong, Lixuan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhao, Yongqiang & Sandholt, Kaare, 2016. "Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 47-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:94:y:2016:i:c:p:47-55
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.03.024
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Zhou & Alice Moncaster & David M Reiner & Peter Guthrie, 2019. "Estimating Lifetimes and Stock Turnover Dynamics of Urban Residential Buildings in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Ling Zhang & Qingqing Lu & Zengwei Yuan & Songyan Jiang & Huijun Wu, 2023. "A bottom‐up modeling of metabolism of the residential building system in China toward 2050," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(2), pages 587-600, April.
    3. Jing Guo & Tomer Fishman & Yao Wang & Alessio Miatto & Wendy Wuyts & Licheng Zheng & Heming Wang & Hiroki Tanikawa, 2021. "Urban development and sustainability challenges chronicled by a century of construction material flows and stocks in Tiexi, China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(1), pages 162-175, February.
    4. Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhou, Nan & Karali, Nihan & Zhang, Jingjing & Feng, Wei, 2019. "Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 12-26.
    5. Jiayi Jia & Zhenyu Huang & Jianying Deng & Fang Hu & Lin Li, 2022. "Government Performance Evaluation in the Context of Carbon Neutrality: Energy-Saving of New Residential Building Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Burleyson, Casey D. & Iyer, Gokul & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Sonny & Kyle, Page & Rice, Jennie S. & Smith, Amanda D. & Taylor, Z. Todd & Voisin, Nathalie & Xie, Yulong, 2020. "Future western U.S. building electricity consumption in response to climate and population drivers: A comparative study of the impact of model structure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    7. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2019. "Material-energy-water-carbon nexus in China’s electricity generation system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Qiance Liu & Litao Liu & Xiaojie Liu & Shenggong Li & Gang Liu, 2021. "Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1631-1643, December.
    9. Zhou, Wei & O'Neill, Eoghan & Moncaster, Alice & Reiner, David M. & Guthrie, Peter, 2020. "Forecasting urban residential stock turnover dynamics using system dynamics and Bayesian model averaging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    10. Liang Yuan & Weisheng Lu & Yijie Wu, 2023. "Characterizing the spatiotemporal evolution of building material stock in China's Greater Bay Area: A statistical regression method," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(6), pages 1553-1566, December.
    11. Ruirui Zhang & Jing Guo & Dong Yang & Hiroaki Shirakawa & Feng Shi & Hiroki Tanikawa, 2022. "What matters most to the material intensity coefficient of buildings? Random forest‐based evidence from China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1809-1823, October.
    12. Zhou, Wei & Moncaster, Alice & O'Neill, Eoghan & Reiner, David M. & Wang, Xinke & Guthrie, Peter, 2022. "Modelling future trends of annual embodied energy of urban residential building stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    13. Hui Li & Yanan Zheng & Guan Gong & Hongtao Guo, 2023. "A Simulation Study on Peak Carbon Emission of Public Buildings—In the Case of Henan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.
    14. Julien Pedneault & Guillaume Majeau‐Bettez & Stefan Pauliuk & Manuele Margni, 2022. "Sector‐specific scenarios for future stocks and flows of aluminum: An analysis based on shared socioeconomic pathways," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1728-1746, October.
    15. Bischof, Julian & Duffy, Aidan, 2022. "Life-cycle assessment of non-domestic building stocks: A meta-analysis of current modelling methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    16. Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    17. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    18. Linwei Pan & Minglei Zhu & Ningning Lang & Tengfei Huo, 2020. "What Is the Amount of China’s Building Floor Space from 1996 to 2014?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-17, August.
    19. Zhu, Chen & Li, Xiaodong & Zhu, Weina & Gong, Wei, 2022. "Embodied carbon emissions and mitigation potential in China's building sector: An outlook to 2060," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    20. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Liu, Bingsheng & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei, 2022. "China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    21. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2023. "The implications of material and energy efficiencies for the climate change mitigation potential of global energy transition scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    22. Zhang, Qi & Xu, Jin & Wang, Yujie & Hasanbeigi, Ali & Zhang, Wei & Lu, Hongyou & Arens, Marlene, 2018. "Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation in China’s iron and steel industry based on dynamic material flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 251-265.
    23. Volk, Rebekka & Müller, Richard & Reinhardt, Joachim & Schultmann, Frank, 2019. "An Integrated Material Flows, Stakeholders and Policies Approach to Identify and Exploit Regional Resource Potentials," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 292-320.

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