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How will Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions change by 2050? A disaggregated analysis of past and future greenhouse gas emissions using bottom-up energy modelling and Sankey diagrams

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  • Davis, Matthew
  • Ahiduzzaman, Md.
  • Kumar, Amit

Abstract

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are currently at the crux of political, environmental, technological, and cultural discussions due to climate change. A drastic reduction of GHG emissions is needed in order to mitigate potentially catastrophic climate change impacts. Thus, thoroughly understanding emission sources is imperative. A disaggregated analysis of Canada’s future GHG emission projections has not yet been conducted. The objectives in this paper are to assess disaggregated GHG emissions in Canada for the years 2014, 2030, and 2050, and analyze the results through Sankey diagrams. Emissions are calculated using a bottom-up multi-regional accounting-based Long-range Energy Alternative Planning systems model. Each major economic sector in Canada is analyzed including the electricity generation, residential, commercial and institutional, industrial, transportation, and agriculture sectors. The emissions released in these sectors are traced to the resources and end-uses responsible. Results are presented for Canada and for provinces individually. GHG emissions contained in exported resources are evaluated. Results show that Canada’s business-as-usual GHG emissions will grow from 732 million tonnes in 2014 to 780 and 798 million tonnes in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Canada exports more emissions contained in resources than it emits. Per capita emissions intensity will fall by 14% between 2014 and 2050. Results are compared to climate targets and key areas of GHG mitigation potential are identified. Alberta’s oil and gas sector and Ontario’s transportation sector are the two single largest sectoral sources of emissions by 2050. This research can help policy makers, innovators, and the public better understand GHG emissions, which can lead to more effective GHG mitigation.

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  • Davis, Matthew & Ahiduzzaman, Md. & Kumar, Amit, 2018. "How will Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions change by 2050? A disaggregated analysis of past and future greenhouse gas emissions using bottom-up energy modelling and Sankey diagrams," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 754-786.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:220:y:2018:i:c:p:754-786
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.064
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    Cited by:

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    4. Talaei, Alireza & Pier, David & Iyer, Aishwarya V. & Ahiduzzaman, Md & Kumar, Amit, 2019. "Assessment of long-term energy efficiency improvement and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation options for the cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1051-1066.
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    9. Janet Music & Sylvain Charlebois & Louise Spiteri & Shannon Farrell & Alysha Griffin, 2021. "Increases in Household Food Waste in Canada as a Result of COVID-19: An Exploratory Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-11, November.
    10. Gupta, Ankit & Davis, Matthew & Kumar, Amit, 2021. "An integrated assessment framework for the decarbonization of the electricity generation sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
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    12. Tian, Xuelin & An, Chunjiang & Chen, Zhikun, 2023. "The role of clean energy in achieving decarbonization of electricity generation, transportation, and heating sectors by 2050: A meta-analysis review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    13. Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhou, Nan & Karali, Nihan & Zhang, Jingjing & Feng, Wei, 2019. "Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 12-26.
    14. Xu, Chao & Haase, Dagmar & Su, Meirong & Yang, Zhifeng, 2019. "The impact of urban compactness on energy-related greenhouse gas emissions across EU member states: Population density vs physical compactness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    15. Puertas, R. & Marti, L., 2021. "International ranking of climate change action: An analysis using the indicators from the Climate Change Performance Index," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    16. Suresh Neethirajan, 2023. "Innovative Strategies for Sustainable Dairy Farming in Canada amidst Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-37, December.
    17. Davis, M. & Okunlola, A. & Di Lullo, G. & Giwa, T. & Kumar, A., 2023. "Greenhouse gas reduction potential and cost-effectiveness of economy-wide hydrogen-natural gas blending for energy end uses," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    18. Mohamad Issa & Adrian Ilinca & Daniel R. Rousse & Loïc Boulon & Philippe Groleau, 2023. "Renewable Energy and Decarbonization in the Canadian Mining Industry: Opportunities and Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-22, October.
    19. Hui Wang & Guifen Liu & Kaifang Shi, 2019. "What Are the Driving Forces of Urban CO 2 Emissions in China? A Refined Scale Analysis between National and Urban Agglomeration Levels," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-19, September.

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