IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v93y2015ip2p2423-2435.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

Author

Listed:
  • Perwez, Usama
  • Sohail, Ahmed
  • Hassan, Syed Fahad
  • Zia, Usman

Abstract

The long-term forecasting of electricity demand and supply has assumed significant importance in fundamental research to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity issues. In this article, we provide an overview of structure of electric power sector of Pakistan and a summary of historical electricity demand & supply data, current status of divergent set of energy policies as a framework for development and application of a LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternate Planning) model of Pakistan's electric power sector. Pakistan's LEAP model is used to analyze the supply policy selections and demand assumptions for future power generation system on the basis of economics, technicality and implicit environmental implications. Three scenarios are enacted over the study period (2011–2030) which include BAU (Business-As-Usual), NC (New Coal) & GF (Green Future). The results of these scenarios are compared in terms of projected electricity demand & supply, net present cost analysis (discount rate at 4%, 7% and 10%) and GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reductions, along with sensitivity analysis to study the effect of varying parameters on total cost. A concluding section illustrates the policy implications of model for futuristic power generation and environmental policies in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:93:y:2015:i:p2:p:2423-2435
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.10.103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544215014802
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2015.10.103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2012. "The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 146-153.
    2. Jamil, Faisal & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2010. "The relationship between electricity consumption, electricity prices and GDP in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6016-6025, October.
    3. Ghanadan, Rebecca & Koomey, Jonathan G., 2005. "Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1117-1142, June.
    4. Farooqui, Suhail Zaki, 2014. "Prospects of renewables penetration in the energy mix of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 693-700.
    5. Shin, Ho-Chul & Park, Jin-Won & Kim, Ho-Seok & Shin, Eui-Soon, 2005. "Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas electricity generation in Korea using LEAP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1261-1270, July.
    6. Dagher, Leila & Ruble, Isabella, 2011. "Modeling Lebanon’s electricity sector: Alternative scenarios and their implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4315-4326.
    7. Mulugetta, Yacob & Mantajit, Nathinee & Jackson, Tim, 2007. "Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3256-3269, June.
    8. repec:pid:wpaper:2012:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kale, Rajesh V. & Pohekar, Sanjay D., 2014. "Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
    10. Afia Malik, 2012. "Power Crisis in Pakistan: A Crisis in Governance?," PIDE Monograph Series 2012:1, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    11. Giatrakos, Georgios P. & Tsoutsos, Theocharis D. & Zografakis, Nikos, 2009. "Sustainable power planning for the island of Crete," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1222-1238, April.
    12. Farooq, Muhammad Khalid & Kumar, S., 2013. "An assessment of renewable energy potential for electricity generation in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 240-254.
    13. McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2014. "Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 146-157.
    14. Özer, Betül & Görgün, Erdem & İncecik, Selahattin, 2013. "The scenario analysis on CO2 emission mitigation potential in the Turkish electricity sector: 2006–2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 395-403.
    15. Zhang, Qingyu & Weili, Tian & Yumei, Wei & Yingxu, Chen, 2007. "External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4295-4304, August.
    16. Zhang, Qi & Ishihara, Keiichi N. & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Tezuka, Tetsuo, 2012. "Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 376-385.
    17. Bautista, Santiago, 2012. "A sustainable scenario for Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050 and its costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 331-340.
    18. Rashid Amjad & Musleh Ud Din & Idrees Khawaja & Nasir Iqbal & Ahmad Waqar Qasim, 2012. "Fiscal Federalism In Pakistan," PIDE Monograph Series 2012:4, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    19. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6445-6456, December.
    20. Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq & Ramli, Ahmad Termizi & Saleh, Muneer Aziz, 2013. "Nigeria electricity crisis: Power generation capacity expansion and environmental ramifications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 354-367.
    21. Park, Nyun-Bae & Yun, Sun-Jin & Jeon, Eui-Chan, 2013. "An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 288-296.
    22. Kessides, Ioannis N., 2013. "Chaos in power: Pakistan's electricity crisis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 271-285.
    23. Mahmood, Anzar & Javaid, Nadeem & Zafar, Adnan & Ali Riaz, Raja & Ahmed, Saeed & Razzaq, Sohail, 2014. "Pakistan's overall energy potential assessment, comparison of LNG, TAPI and IPI gas projects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 182-193.
    24. Shabbir, Rabia & Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed, 2010. "Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2323-2332.
    25. Takase, Kae & Suzuki, Tatsujiro, 2011. "The Japanese energy sector: Current situation, and future paths," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6731-6744.
    26. Amirnekooei, K. & Ardehali, M.M. & Sadri, A., 2012. "Integrated resource planning for Iran: Development of reference energy system, forecast, and long-term energy-environment plan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 374-385.
    27. Gómez, Antonio & Dopazo, César & Fueyo, Norberto, 2014. "The causes of the high energy intensity of the Kazakh economy: A characterization of its energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 556-568.
    28. Zaman, Khalid & Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq & Ahmad, Mehboob & Rustam, Rabiah, 2012. "The relationship between agricultural technology and energy demand in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 268-279.
    29. Bhutto, Abdul Waheed & Bazmi, Aqeel Ahmed & Zahedi, Gholamreza, 2013. "Greener energy: Issues and challenges for Pakistan—wind power prospective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 519-538.
    30. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Lu, Xuedu & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2320-2335, April.
    31. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13191, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Scenario analysis on greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Southeast Balkans' energy system," MPRA Paper 65280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    3. Kale, Rajesh V. & Pohekar, Sanjay D., 2014. "Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
    4. Ahanchian, Mohammad & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel, 2014. "Energy demand, emissions forecasts and mitigation strategies modeled over a medium-range horizon: The case of the land transportation sector in Metro Manila," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 615-629.
    5. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Assessing greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia's energy system," MPRA Paper 66105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kachoee, Mohammad Sadegh & Salimi, Mohsen & Amidpour, Majid, 2018. "The long-term scenario and greenhouse gas effects cost-benefit analysis of Iran's electricity sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 585-596.
    7. Park, Nyun-Bae & Yun, Sun-Jin & Jeon, Eui-Chan, 2013. "An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 288-296.
    8. Valasai, Gordhan Das & Uqaili, Muhammad Aslam & Memon, HafeezUr Rahman & Samoo, Saleem Raza & Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Harijan, Khanji, 2017. "Overcoming electricity crisis in Pakistan: A review of sustainable electricity options," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 734-745.
    9. Sana Bashir & Iftikhar Ahmad & Sajid Rashid Ahmad, 2018. "Low-Emission Modeling for Energy Demand in the Household Sector: A Study of Pakistan as a Developing Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.
    10. Vicente Sebastian Espinoza & Veronica Guayanlema & Javier Mart nez-G mez, 2018. "Energy Efficiency Plan Benefits in Ecuador: Long-range Energy Alternative Planning Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 52-54.
    11. McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2014. "Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 146-157.
    12. Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Uqaili, Mohammad Aslam & Harijan, Khanji & Valasai, Gordhan Das & Shaikh, Faheemullah & Waris, M., 2017. "A review of energy and power planning and policies of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 110-127.
    13. Nawaz, Saima & Iqbal, Nasir & Anwar, Saba, 2014. "Modelling electricity demand using the STAR (Smooth Transition Auto-Regressive) model in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 535-542.
    14. Qunli Wu & Chenyang Peng, 2016. "Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, November.
    15. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2016. "Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 275-289.
    16. Awopone, Albert K. & Zobaa, Ahmed F. & Banuenumah, Walter, 2017. "Techno-economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion plan of Ghana," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 13-22.
    17. Kumar, Subhash, 2016. "Assessment of renewables for energy security and carbon mitigation in Southeast Asia: The case of Indonesia and Thailand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 63-70.
    18. Liu, Lei & Wang, Ke & Wang, Shanshan & Zhang, Ruiqin & Tang, Xiaoyan, 2018. "Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 382-396.
    19. Karunanithi, K. & Saravanan, S. & Prabakar, B.R. & Kannan, S. & Thangaraj, C., 2017. "Integration of Demand and Supply Side Management strategies in Generation Expansion Planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 966-982.
    20. Shakeel, Shah Rukh & Takala, Josu & Shakeel, Waqas, 2016. "Renewable energy sources in power generation in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 421-434.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:93:y:2015:i:p2:p:2423-2435. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.