IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v9y2016i12p988-d83771.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Qunli Wu

    (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Chenyang Peng

    (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

Abstract

In this paper, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is constructed to simulate six scenarios for forecasting national electricity demand in China. The results show that in 2020 the total electricity demand will reach 6407.9~7491.0 billion KWh, and will be 6779.9~10,313.5 billion KWh in 2030. Moreover, under the assumption of power production just meeting the social demand and considering the changes in the scale and technical structure of power industry, this paper simulates two scenarios to estimate carbon emissions and carbon intensity till 2030, with 2012 as the baseline year. The results indicate that the emissions intervals are 4074.16~4692.52 million tCO 2 in 2020 and 3948.43~5812.28 million tCO 2 in 2030, respectively. Carbon intensity is 0.63~0.64 kg CO 2 /KWh in 2020 and 0.56~0.58 kg CO 2 /KWh in 2030. In order to accelerate carbon reduction, the future work should focus on making a more stringent criterion on the intensity of industrial power consumption and expanding the proportion of power generation using clean energy, large capacity, and high efficiency units.

Suggested Citation

  • Qunli Wu & Chenyang Peng, 2016. "Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:12:p:988-:d:83771
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/12/988/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/12/988/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Lu, Xuedu, 2008. "Comparison of CO2 emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China's five sectors in 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1181-1194, March.
    2. Bala, B.K., 1997. "Computer modelling of the rural energy system and of CO2 emissions for Bangladesh," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 999-1003.
    3. Shin, Ho-Chul & Park, Jin-Won & Kim, Ho-Seok & Shin, Eui-Soon, 2005. "Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas electricity generation in Korea using LEAP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1261-1270, July.
    4. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Chen-Qi He & Hua-Nan Li & Xiao-Chen Yuan & Hua Liao, 2017. "Regional efforts to mitigate climate change in China: a multi-criteria assessment approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, January.
    5. Bin Ye & Jingjing Jiang & Lixin Miao & Peng Yang & Ji Li & Bo Shen, 2015. "Feasibility Study of a Solar-Powered Electric Vehicle Charging Station Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Mi, Zhifu & Zhang, Yunkun & Guan, Dabo & Shan, Yuli & Liu, Zhu & Cong, Ronggang & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Consumption-based emission accounting for Chinese cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1073-1081.
    7. Yi-Ming Wei & Gang Wu & Ying Fan & Lan-Cui Liu, 2006. "Progress in energy complex system modelling and analysis," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 25(1/2), pages 109-128.
    8. Song, Ho-Jun & Lee, Seungmoon & Maken, Sanjeev & Ahn, Se-Woong & Park, Jin-Won & Min, Byoungryul & Koh, Wongun, 2007. "Environmental and economic assessment of the chemical absorption process in Korea using the LEAP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 5109-5116, October.
    9. Cheng, Beibei & Dai, Hancheng & Wang, Peng & Xie, Yang & Chen, Li & Zhao, Daiqing & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Impacts of low-carbon power policy on carbon mitigation in Guangdong Province, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 515-527.
    10. Kale, Rajesh V. & Pohekar, Sanjay D., 2014. "Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
    11. Roinioti, Argiro & Koroneos, Christopher & Wangensteen, Ivar, 2012. "Modeling the Greek energy system: Scenarios of clean energy use and their implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 711-722.
    12. Bowen Xiao & Dongxiao Niu & Xiaodan Guo & Xiaomin Xu, 2015. "The Impacts of Environmental Tax in China: A Dynamic Recursive Multi-Sector CGE Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-28, July.
    13. Jiahai Yuan & Chunning Na & Zheng Hu & Ping Li, 2016. "Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction in China’s Power Sector: Alternative Scenarios Up to 2020," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-16, April.
    14. Lin, Jianyi & Cao, Bin & Cui, Shenghui & Wang, Wei & Bai, Xuemei, 2010. "Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5123-5132, September.
    15. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6445-6456, December.
    16. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomos F., 2009. "Integrated assessment of energy policies: Decomposing top-down and bottom-up," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1648-1661, September.
    17. Takase, Kae & Suzuki, Tatsujiro, 2011. "The Japanese energy sector: Current situation, and future paths," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6731-6744.
    18. Amirnekooei, K. & Ardehali, M.M. & Sadri, A., 2012. "Integrated resource planning for Iran: Development of reference energy system, forecast, and long-term energy-environment plan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 374-385.
    19. Chen, Wenying & Wu, Zongxin & He, Jiankun & Gao, Pengfei & Xu, Shaofeng, 2007. "Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 59-72.
    20. Hao Yu & Su-Yan Pan & Bao-Jun Tang & Zhi-Fu Mi & Yan Zhang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2014. "Urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Beijing: Current and Future," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 70, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    21. Yuanying Chi & Zhengquan Guo & Yuhua Zheng & Xingping Zhang, 2014. "Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Song, Yan & Sun, Junjie & Zhang, Ming & Su, Bin, 2020. "Using the Tapio-Z decoupling model to evaluate the decoupling status of China's CO2 emissions at provincial level and its dynamic trend," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-129.
    2. Pedro Gerber Machado & Ana Carolina Rodrigues Teixeira & Flavia Mendes de Almeida Collaço & Adam Hawkes & Dominique Mouette, 2020. "Assessment of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutant Emissions in the Road Freight Transport Sector: A Case Study for São Paulo State, Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-26, October.
    3. Ma, Jia-Jun & Du, Gang & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2019. "CO2 emission changes of China's power generation system: Input-output subsystem analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Ayuketah, Yvan & Gyamfi, Samuel & Diawuo, Felix Amankwah & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2023. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of a low-carbon power generation system in Cameroon," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    5. Peng Wang & Meng Li, 2019. "Scenario Analysis in the Electric Power Industry under the Implementation of the Electricity Market Reform and a Carbon Policy in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-26, June.
    6. Li, Jingming & Li, Nianping & Peng, Jinqing & Cui, Haijiao & Wu, Zhibin, 2019. "Energy consumption of cryptocurrency mining: A study of electricity consumption in mining cryptocurrencies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 160-168.
    7. Demetriou, E. & Hadjistassou, C., 2021. "Can China decarbonize its electricity sector?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    8. Lin Zhu & Lichun He & Peipei Shang & Yingchun Zhang & Xiaojun Ma, 2018. "Influencing Factors and Scenario Forecasts of Carbon Emissions of the Chinese Power Industry: Based on a Generalized Divisia Index Model and Monte Carlo Simulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-26, September.
    9. Natalia Iwaszczuk & Jacek Wolak & Aleksander Iwaszczuk, 2021. "Turkmenistan’s Gas Sector Development Scenarios Based on Econometric and SWOT Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Yue Ma & Xiaodong Chu, 2022. "Optimizing Low-Carbon Pathway of China’s Power Supply Structure Using Model Predictive Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    11. Wang, Juan & Hu, Mingming & Tukker, Arnold & Rodrigues, João F.D., 2019. "The impact of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries on China's CO2 emissions and emission goals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 512-523.
    12. Fei Ye & Xinxiu Xie & Li Zhang & Xiaoling Hu, 2018. "An Improved Grey Model and Scenario Analysis for Carbon Intensity Forecasting in the Pearl River Delta Region of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, January.
    13. Feng, Zhiying & Tang, Wenhu & Niu, Zhewen & Wu, Qinghua, 2018. "Bi-level allocation of carbon emission permits based on clustering analysis and weighted voting: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1122-1135.
    14. Rodrigues, João F.D. & Wang, Juan & Behrens, Paul & de Boer, Paul, 2020. "Drivers of CO2 emissions from electricity generation in the European Union 2000–2015," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    2. Kumar, Subhash, 2016. "Assessment of renewables for energy security and carbon mitigation in Southeast Asia: The case of Indonesia and Thailand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 63-70.
    3. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Scenario analysis on greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Southeast Balkans' energy system," MPRA Paper 65280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    5. Ahanchian, Mohammad & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel, 2014. "Energy demand, emissions forecasts and mitigation strategies modeled over a medium-range horizon: The case of the land transportation sector in Metro Manila," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 615-629.
    6. Kale, Rajesh V. & Pohekar, Sanjay D., 2014. "Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
    7. Park, Nyun-Bae & Yun, Sun-Jin & Jeon, Eui-Chan, 2013. "An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 288-296.
    8. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Assessing greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia's energy system," MPRA Paper 66105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kumar, Subhash & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "CO2 emission reduction potential assessment using renewable energy in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 273-282.
    10. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie & Zhang, Hongzhi, 2017. "The impact of electric vehicles and CCS in the context of emission trading scheme in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 800-816.
    11. George Halkos & Nickolaos Tzeremes & Panayiotis Tzeremes, 2015. "A nonparametric approach for evaluating long-term energy policy scenarios: an application to the Greek energy system," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Chen, Han & Yang, Lei & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Modelling national, provincial and city-level low-carbon energy transformation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Kumar, Subhash & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "A Least-Cost Assessment of the CO2 Mitigation Potential Using Renewable Energies in the Indian Electricity Supply Sector," FCN Working Papers 14/2014, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    14. Lixiao Zhang & Yueyi Feng & Bin Chen, 2011. "Alternative Scenarios for the Development of a Low-Carbon City: A Case Study of Beijing, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(12), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2016. "Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 275-289.
    16. Hasan Volkan Oral & Hasan Saygin, 2019. "Simulating the future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of Turkish cement industry up to 2030 in a global context," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 1461-1482, December.
    17. Liu, Lei & Wang, Ke & Wang, Shanshan & Zhang, Ruiqin & Tang, Xiaoyan, 2018. "Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 382-396.
    18. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    19. Vicente Sebastian Espinoza & Veronica Guayanlema & Javier Mart nez-G mez, 2018. "Energy Efficiency Plan Benefits in Ecuador: Long-range Energy Alternative Planning Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 52-54.
    20. McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2014. "Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 146-157.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:12:p:988-:d:83771. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.