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Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials

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Author Info

  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.
  • Hoogwijk, Monique
  • Barker, Terry
  • Riahi, Keywan
  • Boeters, Stefan
  • Chateau, Jean
  • Scrieciu, Serban
  • van Vliet, Jasper
  • Masui, Toshihiko
  • Blok, Kornelis
  • Blomen, Eliane
  • Kram, Tom

Abstract

The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC reports that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by about 30-50% in 2030 at costs below 100 US$/tCO2 based on an assessment of both bottom-up and top-down studies. Here, we have looked in more detail into the outcomes of specific models and also analyzed the economic potentials at the sectoral and regional level. At the aggregated level, the findings of the IPCC report are confirmed. However, substantial differences are found at the sectoral level. At the same time, there seems to be no systematic difference in the reduction potential reported by top-down and bottom-up approaches. The largest reduction potential as a response to carbon prices exists in the energy supply sector. Reduction potential in the building sector may carry relatively low costs. Although uncertainties are considerable, the modeling results and the bottom-up analyses all suggest that at the global level around 50% of greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced at carbon price (costs) below 100$/tCO2-eq--but with a wide range of 30-60%. At a carbon price (costs) less than 20$/tCO2-eq, still 10-35% of emissions may be abated. The variation of results is higher at low carbon-price levels than at high levels.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
Pages: 5125-5139

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:12:p:5125-5139

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Related research

Keywords: Emission reduction potential Energy models Top-down models;

References

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  1. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Weyant, John & de la Chesnaye, Francisco, 2006. "Multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 102-120, January.
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  4. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Jean Chateau, 2008. "An Overview of the OECD ENV-Linkages Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 653, OECD Publishing.
  5. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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  7. Shilpa Rao and Keywan Riahi, 2006. "The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Change Mitigation: Long-term Scenarios for the 21st Century," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 177-200.
  8. Terry Barker, Haoran Pan, Jonathan Kohler, Rachel Warren, and Sarah Winne, 2006. "Decarbonizing the Global Economy with Induced Technological Change: Scenarios to 2100 using E3MG," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 241-258.
  9. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & de Vries, Bert & Eickhout, Bas & Kram, Tom, 2004. "Responses to technology and taxes in a simulated world," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 579-601, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. C. Wilson & A. Grubler & N. Bauer & V. Krey & K. Riahi, 2013. "Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 381-395, May.
  2. Kok, Robert & Annema, Jan Anne & van Wee, Bert, 2011. "Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation in transport: A review of methodological approaches and their impact," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7776-7793.
  3. Mendoza Beltran, Angelica & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper, 2011. "Exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political, economic and environmental considerations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7361-7371.
  4. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Kram, Tom, 2011. "Comment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-647, July.
  5. Michel Elzen & Angelica Beltran & Andries Hof & Bas Ruijven & Jasper Vliet, 2013. "Reduction targets and abatement costs of developing countries resulting from global and developed countries’ reduction targets by 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 491-512, April.
  6. Hoogwijk, Monique & Rue du Can, Stephane de la & Novikova, Aleksandra & Urge-Vorsatz, Diana & Blomen, Eliane & Blok, Kornelis, 2010. "Assessment of bottom-up sectoral and regional mitigation potentials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3044-3057, June.
  7. Steckel, Jan Christoph & Jakob, Michael & Marschinski, Robert & Luderer, Gunnar, 2011. "From carbonization to decarbonization?--Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3443-3455, June.
  8. Kesicki, Fabian, 2013. "What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 142-151.
  9. Dagoumas, [alpha].S. & Barker, T.S., 2010. "Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3067-3077, June.
  10. Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Piontek, Franziska & Bertram, Christoph & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term climate policy implications of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 882-894.
  11. Charlie Wilson:, 2010. "Growth dynamics of energy technologies: using historical patterns to validate low carbon scenarios," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 32, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

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