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Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?

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  • Lochner, Stefan
  • Dieckhöner, Caroline

Abstract

The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not affected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports into several European countries. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable. The analysis thereby highlights the importance of taking the political stability of supply countries into account when assessing the security of European gas imports.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 45 (2012)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 167-175

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:45:y:2012:i:c:p:167-175

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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Keywords: Natural gas; Security of supply; North Africa;

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References

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  1. Weisser, Hellmuth, 2007. "The security of gas supply--a critical issue for Europe?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-5, January.
  2. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
  3. Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2008. "Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 823, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Lochner, Stefan, 2011. "Identification of congestion and valuation of transport infrastructures in the European natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2483-2492.
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Cited by:
  1. Growitsch, Christian & Hecking, Harald & Panke, Timo, 2013. "Supply disruptions and regional price effects in a spatial oligopoly - an application to the global gas market," EWI Working Papers 2013-8, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  2. Lorenz Casimir & Gerbaulet Clemens & Holz Franziska & Abrell Jan & Hannes Weigt, 2013. "Combining Energy Networks: The Impact of Europe's Natural Gas Network on Electricity Markets until 2050," Working papers 2013/10, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  3. Lilliestam, Johan, 2014. "Vulnerability to terrorist attacks in European electricity decarbonisation scenarios: Comparing renewable electricity imports to gas imports," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 234-248.
  4. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2013. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices? - A Structural VAR Approach," EWI Working Papers 2013-2, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.

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