IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v44y2015icp785-796.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Flouri, Maria
  • Karakosta, Charikleia
  • Kladouchou, Charikleia
  • Psarras, John

Abstract

Nowadays, the European natural gas production has declined having, as a consequence, increased import dependence, which is estimated to reach 85% by 2030. Therefore, the implementation of a European energy policy, towards the viability, competitiveness and security of energy supply, is more than essential. Necessary parameter for the elaboration of such a policy is the diversification of natural gas supply sources and corridors, in order to eliminate growing dependences. Moreover, the recent cases of natural gas supply interruptions to the EU, due to international geopolitical conflicts, further underline the above, indicating the necessity towards an assessment of the potential impact that a natural gas supply disruption would cause to the European natural gas security. To this end and, given the political uprising in the area of North Africa, main objective of this paper is to investigate how a natural gas supply interruption from Algeria, the EU’s third largest supplier, would affect the European natural gas security, in terms of natural gas demand satisfaction. Monte Carlo simulation was applied, producing results on the more affected countries and underlining the importance of supplies diversification, reserves and production, when applicable, towards the enhancement of natural gas security.

Suggested Citation

  • Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:44:y:2015:i:c:p:785-796
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2014.12.029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032114010818
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2014.12.029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cohen, Gail & Joutz, Frederick & Loungani, Prakash, 2011. "Measuring energy security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4860-4869, September.
    2. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhöner, Caroline, 2012. "Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 167-175.
    3. Boussena, S. & Locatelli, C., 2013. "Energy institutional and organisational changes in EU and Russia: Revisiting gas relations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 180-189.
    4. Sadek Boussena & Catherine Locatelli, 2013. "Energy institutional and organisational changes in EU and Russia: Revisiting gas relations," Post-Print halshs-00785127, HAL.
    5. Söderbergh, Bengt & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Aleklett, Kjell, 2010. "European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7827-7843, December.
    6. Börjesson, Martin & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2012. "Cost-effective biogas utilisation – A modelling assessment of gas infrastructural options in a regional energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 212-226.
    7. Mathias Reymond, 2012. "Measuring vulnerability to shocks in the gas market in South America," Post-Print hal-02878042, HAL.
    8. Cabalu, Helen, 2010. "Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 218-225, January.
    9. Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2012. "Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 642-650.
    10. Shaffer, Brenda, 2013. "Natural gas supply stability and foreign policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 114-125.
    11. Patterson, Tim & Esteves, Sandra & Dinsdale, Richard & Guwy, Alan, 2011. "An evaluation of the policy and techno-economic factors affecting the potential for biogas upgrading for transport fuel use in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1806-1816, March.
    12. Bilgin, Mert, 2009. "Geopolitics of European natural gas demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4482-4492, November.
    13. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
    14. Stefan Lochner & Caroline Dieckhöner, 2011. "European gas imports from North Africa," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 46(3), pages 143-147, June.
    15. Reymond, Mathias, 2012. "Measuring vulnerability to shocks in the gas market in South America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 754-761.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, Weiwei & Su, Meirong & Fath, Brian D. & Zhang, Mingqi & Hao, Yan, 2016. "A systematic method of evaluation of the Chinese natural gas supply security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 858-867.
    2. Dastan, Seyit Ali & Selcuk, Orhun, 2016. "Review of the security of supply in Turkish energy markets: Lessons from the winter shortages," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 958-971.
    3. Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    4. Girma T. Chala & Abd Rashid Abd Aziz & Ftwi Y. Hagos, 2018. "Natural Gas Engine Technologies: Challenges and Energy Sustainability Issue," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-44, October.
    5. Corey Johnson & Tim Boersma, 2015. "The politics of energy security: contrasts between the United States and the European Union," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 171-177, March.
    6. Cardinale, Roberto, 2019. "The profitability of transnational energy infrastructure: A comparative analysis of the Greenstream and Galsi gas pipelines," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 347-357.
    7. Vivoda, Vlado, 2022. "LNG export diversification and demand security: A comparative study of major exporters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    8. Ruble, Isabella, 2017. "European Union energy supply security: The benefits of natural gas imports from the Eastern Mediterranean," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 341-353.
    9. Mathias Reymond, 2014. "Why ECO countries could become energy-dependent?," 2nd International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-Economic Development 7722, EcoMod.
    10. J. Magnier, Hamza & Jrad, Asmaa, 2019. "A minimal simplified model for assessing and devising global LNG equilibrium trade portfolios while maximizing energy security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1221-1233.
    11. Psarras, John, 2016. "Multicriteria decision support to evaluate potential long-term natural gas supply alternatives: The case of GreeceAuthor-Name: Androulaki, Stella," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 791-810.
    12. Kateryna Yakovenko & Matúš Mišík, 2020. "Cooperation and Security: Examining the Political Discourse on Natural Gas Transit in Ukraine and Slovakia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-14, November.
    13. Long Zhang & Wuliyasu Bai, 2020. "Risk Assessment of China’s Natural Gas Importation: A Supply Chain Perspective," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(3), pages 21582440209, July.
    14. Guych Nuryyev & Tomasz Korol & Ilia Tetin, 2021. "Hold-Up Problems in International Gas Trade: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
    15. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    16. Dubský, Zbyněk & Tichý, Lukáš & Pavliňák, Daniel, 2021. "A quantifiable approach to the selection of criteria and indexation for comparison of the gas pipeline projects leading to the EU: Diversification rationality against securitisation?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    17. Kangyin Dong & Yalin Han & Yue Dou & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2022. "Moving toward carbon neutrality: Assessing natural gas import security and its impact on CO2 emissions," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 751-770, August.
    18. Erahman, Qodri Febrilian & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu & Sudibandriyo, Mahmud & Hidayatno, Akhmad, 2016. "An assessment of Indonesia's energy security index and comparison with seventy countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 364-376.
    19. Filip Božić & Daria Karasalihović Sedlar & Ivan Smajla & Ivana Ivančić, 2021. "Analysis of Changes in Natural Gas Physical Flows for Europe via Ukraine in 2020," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-22, August.
    20. Mingqi Zhang & Meirong Su & Weiwei Lu & Chunhua Su, 2015. "An Assessment of the Security of China’s Natural Gas Supply System Using Two Network Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-16, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:44:y:2015:i:c:p:785-796. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.