IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v165y2016icp858-867.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A systematic method of evaluation of the Chinese natural gas supply security

Author

Listed:
  • Lu, Weiwei
  • Su, Meirong
  • Fath, Brian D.
  • Zhang, Mingqi
  • Hao, Yan

Abstract

As a relatively clean energy, natural gas will be increasingly in demand to meet short-term low-carbon targets. The gap between the demand and supply of natural gas will be increasingly scrutinized, which highlights the significance of natural gas supply security. Considering the extensive connections among various aspects related to natural gas supply and the complex interactions behind these connections, ecological network analysis was applied to simulate the natural gas supply system in China and systematically measure its overall security level. Network Information Analysis, Structural Analysis, and Utility Analysis were conducted. It is found that the Chinese natural gas supply security increased during 2000–2011. In terms of the influence of different compartments on the whole natural gas supply system, in order from the largest to smallest influence they are: supply sources, consumption sector, refining, and reserve sectors. And the relationships among compartments became stronger in the later stage than that in the earlier stage of the study period. Suggestions on improving China’s natural gas supply security were proposed based on the results and further scenario analysis. The network model developed herein is a new perspective for natural gas supply security assessment, which can be used as guidance for policy making.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Weiwei & Su, Meirong & Fath, Brian D. & Zhang, Mingqi & Hao, Yan, 2016. "A systematic method of evaluation of the Chinese natural gas supply security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 858-867.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:165:y:2016:i:c:p:858-867
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.12.120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916000064
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.12.120?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wright, Philip, 2005. "Liberalisation and the security of gas supply in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(17), pages 2272-2290, November.
    2. Cohen, Gail & Joutz, Frederick & Loungani, Prakash, 2011. "Measuring energy security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4860-4869, September.
    3. Fath, Brian D., 2007. "Network mutualism: Positive community-level relations in ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 56-67.
    4. Villada, Juan & Olaya, Yris, 2013. "A simulation approach for analysis of short-term security of natural gas supply in Colombia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 11-26.
    5. repec:cty:dpaper:11/04 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhöner, Caroline, 2012. "Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 167-175.
    7. Johnson, Corey & Boersma, Tim, 2013. "Energy (in)security in Poland the case of shale gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 389-399.
    8. Wang, Ting & Lin, Boqiang, 2014. "China's natural gas consumption and subsidies—From a sector perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 541-551.
    9. Praks, Pavel & Kopustinskas, Vytis & Masera, Marcelo, 2015. "Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 254-264.
    10. Qadrdan, Meysam & Chaudry, Modassar & Jenkins, Nick & Baruah, Pranab & Eyre, Nick, 2015. "Impact of transition to a low carbon power system on the GB gas network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 1-12.
    11. Chuang, Ming Chih & Ma, Hwong Wen, 2013. "An assessment of Taiwan’s energy policy using multi-dimensional energy security indicators," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 301-311.
    12. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2010. "Bypassing Russia: Nabucco project and its implications for the European gas security," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 2936-2945, December.
    13. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "A framework for evaluating Singapore’s energy security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 314-325.
    14. Chi, K.C. & Reiner, D.M. & Nuttall, W.J., 2009. "Dynamics of the UK Natural Gas Industry: System Dynamics Modelling and Long-Term Energy Policy Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0922, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Mathias Reymond, 2012. "Measuring vulnerability to shocks in the gas market in South America," Post-Print hal-02878042, HAL.
    16. Costantini, Valeria & Gracceva, Francesco & Markandya, Anil & Vicini, Giorgio, 2007. "Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 210-226, January.
    17. Zhang, Yan & Yang, Zhifeng & Fath, Brian D. & Li, Shengsheng, 2010. "Ecological network analysis of an urban energy metabolic system: Model development, and a case study of four Chinese cities," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(16), pages 1865-1879.
    18. Lafrancois, Becky A., 2012. "A lot left over: Reducing CO2 emissions in the United States’ electric power sector through the use of natural gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 428-435.
    19. Cabalu, Helen, 2010. "Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 218-225, January.
    20. Abada, Ibrahim & Massol, Olivier, 2011. "Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market.: Some model-based insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4077-4088, July.
    21. Lu, Weiwei & Su, Meirong & Zhang, Yan & Yang, Zhifeng & Chen, Bin & Liu, Gengyuan, 2014. "Assessment of energy security in China based on ecological network analysis: A perspective from the security of crude oil supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 406-413.
    22. Weisser, Hellmuth, 2007. "The security of gas supply--a critical issue for Europe?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-5, January.
    23. Shaffer, Brenda, 2013. "Natural gas supply stability and foreign policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 114-125.
    24. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2014. "A dynamic analysis on global natural gas trade network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 23-33.
    25. Goerner, Sally J. & Lietaer, Bernard & Ulanowicz, Robert E., 2009. "Quantifying economic sustainability: Implications for free-enterprise theory, policy and practice," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 76-81, November.
    26. Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    27. Siddig, Khalid & Grethe, Harald, 2014. "No more gas from Egypt? Modeling offshore discoveries and import uncertainty of natural gas in Israel," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 312-324.
    28. Bilgin, Mert, 2009. "Geopolitics of European natural gas demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4482-4492, November.
    29. Biresselioglu, Mehmet Efe & Yelkenci, Tezer & Oz, Ibrahim Onur, 2015. "Investigating the natural gas supply security: A new perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 168-176.
    30. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Ting, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas supply in China: Production peak and import trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 225-233.
    31. Fath, Brian D. & Scharler, Ursula M. & Ulanowicz, Robert E. & Hannon, Bruce, 2007. "Ecological network analysis: network construction," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 49-55.
    32. Gnansounou, Edgard, 2008. "Assessing the energy vulnerability: Case of industrialised countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3734-3744, October.
    33. Sagen, Eirik Lund & Tsygankova, Marina, 2008. "Russian natural gas exports--Will Russian gas price reforms improve the European security of supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 867-880, February.
    34. Damigos, D. & Tourkolias, C. & Diakoulaki, D., 2009. "Households' willingness to pay for safeguarding security of natural gas supply in electricity generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 2008-2017, May.
    35. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Zhao, Lin & Snowden, Simon, 2013. "China's natural gas: Resources, production and its impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 690-698.
    36. Zhao, Chunfu & Chen, Bin, 2014. "China’s oil security from the supply chain perspective: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 269-279.
    37. Zhang, Yan & Yang, Zhifeng & Yu, Xiangyi, 2009. "Ecological network and emergy analysis of urban metabolic systems: Model development, and a case study of four Chinese cities," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(11), pages 1431-1442.
    38. Chester, Lynne, 2010. "Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 887-895, February.
    39. Reymond, Mathias, 2012. "Measuring vulnerability to shocks in the gas market in South America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 754-761.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mingqi Zhang & Meirong Su & Weiwei Lu & Chunhua Su, 2015. "An Assessment of the Security of China’s Natural Gas Supply System Using Two Network Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Su, Meirong & Zhang, Mingqi & Lu, Weiwei & Chang, Xin & Chen, Bin & Liu, Gengyuan & Hao, Yan & Zhang, Yan, 2017. "ENA-based evaluation of energy supply security: Comparison between the Chinese crude oil and natural gas supply systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 888-899.
    3. Borrett, Stuart R. & Sheble, Laura & Moody, James & Anway, Evan C., 2018. "Bibliometric review of ecological network analysis: 2010–2016," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 382(C), pages 63-82.
    4. Dastan, Seyit Ali & Selcuk, Orhun, 2016. "Review of the security of supply in Turkish energy markets: Lessons from the winter shortages," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 958-971.
    5. Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    6. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1077-1093.
    7. Long Zhang & Wuliyasu Bai, 2020. "Risk Assessment of China’s Natural Gas Importation: A Supply Chain Perspective," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(3), pages 21582440209, July.
    8. Lu, Weiwei & Su, Meirong & Zhang, Yan & Yang, Zhifeng & Chen, Bin & Liu, Gengyuan, 2014. "Assessment of energy security in China based on ecological network analysis: A perspective from the security of crude oil supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 406-413.
    9. J. Magnier, Hamza & Jrad, Asmaa, 2019. "A minimal simplified model for assessing and devising global LNG equilibrium trade portfolios while maximizing energy security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1221-1233.
    10. Wang, Qiang & Zhou, Kan, 2017. "A framework for evaluating global national energy security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 19-31.
    11. Mingjing Guo & Yan Bu & Jinhua Cheng & Ziyu Jiang, 2018. "Natural Gas Security in China: A Simulation of Evolutionary Trajectory and Obstacle Degree Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Gasser, Patrick, 2020. "A review on energy security indices to compare country performances," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik, 2018. "Approaches to Methods of Risk Analysis and Assessment Regarding the Gas Supply to a City," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, November.
    14. Wang, Deqing & Tian, Sihua & Fang, Lei & Xu, Yan, 2020. "A functional index model for dynamically evaluating China's energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    16. Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik & Marek Urbanik & Janusz R. Rak, 2018. "Approaches for Safety Analysis of Gas-Pipeline Functionality in Terms of Failure Occurrence: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-13, June.
    17. Honorata Nyga-Łukaszewska & Kentaka Aruga & Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj, 2020. "Energy Security of Poland and Coal Supply: Price Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    18. Thauan Santos & Amaro Olímpio Pereira Júnior & Emilio Lèbre La Rovere, 2017. "Evaluating Energy Policies through the Use of a Hybrid Quantitative Indicator-Based Approach: The Case of Mercosur," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Böhringer, Christoph & Bortolamedi, Markus, 2015. "Sense and no(n)-sense of energy security indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 359-371.
    20. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, Haiyan & Zhou, Qingping & Wu, Jie & Qin, Shanshan, 2016. "China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1149-1167.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:165:y:2016:i:c:p:858-867. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.