Civil Unrest in North Africa – Risks for Natural Gas Supply?
AbstractThe uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not aﬀected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln in its series EWI Working Papers with number 2011-1.
Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: 11 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Vogelsanger Str. 321, Alte Wagenfabrik, 50827 Köln
Phone: ++ 49 (0) 221 277 29 100
Fax: ++ 49 (0) 221 277 29 400
Web page: http://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/
More information through EDIRC
Natural gas; security of supply; network modelling; North Africa;
Other versions of this item:
- Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhöner, Caroline, 2012. "Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 167-175.
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
- Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-07-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2011-07-21 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-ENE-2011-07-21 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Claudia Kemfert, 2009.
"Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 137-150.
- Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2008. "Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 823, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
- Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2013. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices? - A Structural VAR Approach," EWI Working Papers 2013-2, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
- Jan Abrell & Clemens Gerbaulet & Franziska Holz & Casimir Lorenz & Hannes Weigt, 2013.
"Combining Energy Networks: The Impact of Europe's Natural Gas Network on Electricity Markets until 2050,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
1317, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Lorenz Casimir & Gerbaulet Clemens & Holz Franziska & Abrell Jan & Hannes Weigt, 2013. "Combining Energy Networks: The Impact of Europe's Natural Gas Network on Electricity Markets until 2050," Working papers 2013/10, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
- Growitsch, Christian & Hecking, Harald & Panke, Timo, 2013. "Supply disruptions and regional price effects in a spatial oligopoly - an application to the global gas market," EWI Working Papers 2013-8, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Monika Schmid).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.