Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025
AbstractWe apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic severallayer model of European gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate the European imports (~ share of 1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain a feature of the European gas markets, but less than in the current situation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 823.
Length: 14 p.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in: The Energy Journal 30 (2009), Special Issue, 137-150
Natural gas; Europe; modeling; LNG; supply security;
Other versions of this item:
- Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Claudia Kemfert, 2009. "Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 137-150.
- L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
- L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-10-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2008-10-07 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-EEC-2008-10-07 (European Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2008-10-07 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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