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Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025

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  • Franziska Holz
  • Christian von Hirschhausen
  • Claudia Kemfert

Abstract

We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic severallayer model of European gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate the European imports (~ share of 1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain a feature of the European gas markets, but less than in the current situation.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.89229.de/dp823.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 823.

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Length: 14 p.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp823

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Keywords: Natural gas; Europe; modeling; LNG; supply security;

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References

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  1. Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2006. "A Strategic Model of European Gas Supply (GASMOD)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 551, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Ferris, Michael C. & Munson, Todd S., 2000. "Complementarity problems in GAMS and the PATH solver," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 165-188, February.
  3. Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
  4. SMEERS, Yves, 2008. "Gas models and three difficult objectives," CORE Discussion Papers, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) 2008009, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Egging, Rudolf G. & Gabriel, Steven A., 2006. "Examining market power in the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2762-2778, November.
  6. Maroeska G. Boots, Fieke A.M. Rijkers and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2004. "Trading in the Downstream European Gas Market: A Successive Oligopoly Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-102.
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Cited by:
  1. Kristine Grimsrud & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Halvor Briseid Storrøsten & Marina Tsygankova, 2013. "Short run effects of bleaker prospects for oligopolistic producers of a non-renewable resource," Discussion Papers, Research Department of Statistics Norway 733, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  2. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhöner, Caroline, 2012. "Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 167-175.

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