IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v160y2022ics030142152100522x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on aviation demand: An empirical comparison with the impact of ticket taxes

Author

Listed:
  • Oesingmann, Katrin

Abstract

To regulate the rising environmental impact of flying, the EU integrated aviation into the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) in 2012. This study gives an empirical ex-post evaluation on the effect of the EU ETS on aviation demand using a gravity model approach. The results of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimates suggest that the EU ETS has so far had no statistically significant effects on intra-EEA (European Economic Area) air passenger flows. This study additionally controls for the impact of the Austrian and German air transportation tax on aviation demand. The ticket tax brings about statistically significant and robust demand reductions on the affected country-pairs. But although the tax reduces demand, this policy may still not be the adequate measure as the aviation taxes that are in place do not relate to the amount of CO2 emitted by air travel. Generally, policy instruments are preferred that incentivize emission reductions, as is the case with kerosene taxes or emissions trading systems (ETS).

Suggested Citation

  • Oesingmann, Katrin, 2022. "The effect of the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on aviation demand: An empirical comparison with the impact of ticket taxes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:160:y:2022:i:c:s030142152100522x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112657
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142152100522X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112657?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barbot, Cristina & Betancor, Ofelia & Socorro, M. Pilar & Viecens, M. Fernanda, 2014. "Trade-offs between environmental regulation and market competition: Airlines, emission trading systems and entry deterrence," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 65-72.
    2. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. Matsumoto, Hidenobu, 2007. "International air network structures and air traffic density of world cities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 269-282, May.
    5. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    6. Roberta Piermartini & Linda Rousov?, 2013. "The Sky Is Not Flat: How Discriminatory Is the Access to International Air Services?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 287-319, August.
    7. Markham, Francis & Young, Martin & Reis, Arianne & Higham, James, 2018. "Does carbon pricing reduce air travel? Evidence from the Australian ‘Clean Energy Future’ policy, July 2012 to June 2014," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 206-214.
    8. Boonekamp, Thijs & Zuidberg, Joost & Burghouwt, Guillaume, 2018. "Determinants of air travel demand: The role of low-cost carriers, ethnic links and aviation-dependent employment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 18-28.
    9. Meleo, Linda & Nava, Consuelo R. & Pozzi, Cesare, 2016. "Aviation and the costs of the European Emission Trading Scheme: The case of Italy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 138-147.
    10. Brons, Martijn & Pels, Eric & Nijkamp, Peter & Rietveld, Piet, 2002. "Price elasticities of demand for passenger air travel: a meta-analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 165-175.
    11. Anger, Annela, 2010. "Including aviation in the European emissions trading scheme: Impacts on the industry, CO2 emissions and macroeconomic activity in the EU," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 100-105.
    12. Marie M. Stack, 2009. "Regional Integration and Trade: Controlling for Varying Degrees of Heterogeneity in the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 772-789, May.
    13. J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 51-74, September.
    14. Lu, Cherie, 2009. "The implications of environmental costs on air passenger demand for different airline business models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 158-165.
    15. Yahua Zhang & Faqin Lin & Anming Zhang, 2018. "Gravity models in air transport research: a survey and an application," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 4, pages 141-158, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Anca D. Cristea & Russell Hillberry & Aaditya Mattoo, 2015. "Open Skies over the Middle East," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(11), pages 1650-1681, November.
    17. Cui, Qiang & Li, Ye & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Exploring the impacts of EU ETS on the pollution abatement costs of European airlines: An application of Network Environmental Production Function," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 131-142.
    18. Sergio Correia & Paulo Guimarães & Tom Zylkin, 2020. "Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 20(1), pages 95-115, March.
    19. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2013. "The Effect of the Kyoto Protocol on Carbon Emissions," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 731-757, September.
    20. Li, Ye & Wang, Yan-zhang & Cui, Qiang, 2016. "Has airline efficiency affected by the inclusion of aviation into European Union Emission Trading Scheme? Evidences from 22 airlines during 2008–2012," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 8-22.
    21. Pagoni, Ioanna & Psaraki-Kalouptsidi, Voula, 2016. "The impact of carbon emission fees on passenger demand and air fares: A game theoretic approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 41-51.
    22. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.
    23. Cecília Hornok, 2011. "Gravity or Dummies? The Limits of Identification in Gravity Estimations," CeFiG Working Papers 15, Center for Firms in the Global Economy, revised 26 Sep 2011.
    24. Morrell, Peter, 2007. "An evaluation of possible EU air transport emissions trading scheme allocation methods," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5562-5570, November.
    25. Hazledine, Tim, 2009. "Border effects for domestic and international Canadian passenger air travel," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-13.
    26. Nava, Consuelo R. & Meleo, Linda & Cassetta, Ernesto & Morelli, Giovanna, 2018. "The impact of the EU-ETS on the aviation sector: Competitive effects of abatement efforts by airlines," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 20-34.
    27. Vespermann, Jan & Wald, Andreas, 2011. "Much Ado about Nothing? – An analysis of economic impacts and ecologic effects of the EU-emission trading scheme in the aviation industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1066-1076.
    28. Baldwin, Richard, 2007. "Trade Effects of the Euro: a Comparison of Estimators," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 780-818.
    29. Grosche, Tobias & Rothlauf, Franz & Heinzl, Armin, 2007. "Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 175-183.
    30. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    31. Scheelhaase, Janina D. & Grimme, Wolfgang G., 2007. "Emissions trading for international aviation—an estimation of the economic impact on selected European airlines," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 253-263.
    32. James A. Brander & Anming Zhang, 1990. "Market Conduct in the Airline Industry: An Empirical Investigation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 21(4), pages 567-583, Winter.
    33. Koopmans, Carl & Lieshout, Rogier, 2016. "Airline cost changes: To what extent are they passed through to the passenger?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-11.
    34. Cui, Qiang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Li, Ye, 2016. "Exploring the impacts of the EU ETS emission limits on airline performance via the Dynamic Environmental DEA approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 984-994.
    35. Lucas M Z Mendes & Georgina Santos, 2008. "Using Economic Instruments to Address Emissions from Air Transport in the European Union," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 40(1), pages 189-209, January.
    36. Geloso Grosso, Massimo & Shepherd, Ben, 2011. "Air cargo transport in APEC: Regulation and effects on merchandise trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 203-212, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wozny, Florian, 2024. "Tax Incidence in Heterogeneous Markets: The Pass-through of Air Passenger Taxes on Airfares," IZA Discussion Papers 16783, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Hu, Yucai & Li, Ranran & Du, Lei & Ren, Shenggang & Chevallier, Julien, 2022. "Could SO2 and CO2 emissions trading schemes achieve co-benefits of emissions reduction?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Tillmann, Andreas M. & Joormann, Imke & Ammann, Sabrina C.L., 2023. "Reproducible air passenger demand estimation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Yu Wang & Kaibo Yuan & Mengyuan Zhu & Shuijin Li, 2023. "A Time-and-Space-Network-Based Green Fleet Planning Model and Its Application for a Hub-and-Spoke Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-26, March.
    5. Lyu, Chen & Liu, Xiaoman & Wang, Zhen & Yang, Lu & Liu, Hao & Yang, Nan & Xu, Shaodong & Cao, Libin & Zhang, Zhe & Pang, Lingyun & Zhang, Li & Cai, Bofeng, 2023. "An emissions inventory using flight information reveals the long-term changes of aviation CO2 emissions in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    6. Chen, Shangrong & Bravo-Melgarejo, Sai & Mongeau, Romain & Malavolti, Estelle, 2023. "Adopting and diffusing hydrogen technology in air transport: An evolutionary game theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Helmers, Viola & van der Werf, Edwin, 2022. "Did the German Aviation Tax Affect Passenger Numbers? New Evidence Employing Difference-in-differences," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264118, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katrin Oesingmann, 2022. "The determinants of air cargo flows and the role of multinational agreements: An empirical comparison with trade and air passenger flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2370-2393, August.
    2. Nava, Consuelo R. & Meleo, Linda & Cassetta, Ernesto & Morelli, Giovanna, 2018. "The impact of the EU-ETS on the aviation sector: Competitive effects of abatement efforts by airlines," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 20-34.
    3. Lavinia Rotili, 2014. "The Euro effects on intermediate and final exports," Working Papers 7/14, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    4. Kang, Yicheng & Liao, Sha & Jiang, Changmin & D’Alfonso, Tiziana, 2022. "Synthetic control methods for policy analysis: Evaluating the effect of the European Emission Trading System on aviation supply," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 236-252.
    5. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2022. "ECOWAS single currency: Prospective effects on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & Jordi Paniagua, 2021. "Has the Euro paid off? A study of the trade-induced welfare effects of the EMU," Working Papers 2103, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    7. Maria Cipollina & Luca De Benedictis & Luca Salvatici & Claudio Vicarelli, 2016. "Policy Measurement And Multilateral Resistance In Gravity Models," Working Papers LuissLab 16130, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    8. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    9. Maria Cipollina & David Laborde Debucquet & Luca Salvatici, 2017. "The tide that does not raise all boats: an assessment of EU preferential trade policies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 199-231, February.
    10. Weidner, Martin & Zylkin, Thomas, 2021. "Bias and consistency in three-way gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    12. Wu, Xiaokang & Yu, Jinping, 2023. "Does dialect difference impede patent transaction? Evidence from China's inter-city patent license data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    13. Suárez-Varela, Marta & Rodríguez-Crespo, Ernesto, 2022. "Is dirty trade concentrating in more polluting countries? Evidence from Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 728-744.
    14. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    15. Abate, Megersa, 2016. "Economic effects of air transport market liberalization in Africa," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 326-337.
    16. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Randolph Luca Bruno & Nauro Ferreira Campos & Saul Estrin, 2021. "The Effect on Foreign Direct Investment of Membership in the European Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 802-821, July.
    19. Cui, Qiang & Li, Ye & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Exploring the impacts of EU ETS on the pollution abatement costs of European airlines: An application of Network Environmental Production Function," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 131-142.
    20. Oliver Reiter & Robert Stehrer, 2018. "Trade Policies and Integration of the Western Balkans," wiiw Working Papers 148, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    21. Cui, Qiang, 2019. "The online pricing strategy of low-cost carriers when carbon tax and competition are considered," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 420-432.
    22. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:160:y:2022:i:c:s030142152100522x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.