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Gravity models in air transport research: a survey and an application

In: Handbook of International Trade and Transportation

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  • Yahua Zhang
  • Faqin Lin
  • Anming Zhang

Abstract

For more than 50 years, the gravity model has performed well in empirical studies on international trade flows. Its strong economic theoretical foundations have been acknowledged in the last 20 years. Its applications in air transport research remain relatively sparse. A review of the air transport literature employing gravity models in the last ten years shows that most of the studies have not accounted for the advances in empirical estimation techniques developed in international economics. We apply the gravity model in China’s aviation market using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) approach with fixed effects. The results indicate an enormous positive effect of the continuous liberalisation in the air transport sector in promoting the demand for air travel. The emergence of high-speed rail (HSR) has been a serious threat to China’s airline industry and could result in a significant reduction in the number of air passengers when given controls for other factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Yahua Zhang & Faqin Lin & Anming Zhang, 2018. "Gravity models in air transport research: a survey and an application," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 4, pages 141-158, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:17028_4
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Tao & Rong, Lili, 2021. "Impacts of service feature on vulnerability analysis of high-speed rail network," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 238-253.
    2. Alessio Baldassarre & Danilo Carullo & Paolo Di Caro & Elisa Fusco & Pasquale Giacobbe & Carlo Orecchia, 2023. "Bilateral Regional Trade Flows in Italy: an Origin-Destination-Commodity GWR-SAR approach," Working Papers wp2023-18, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance.
    3. Kang, Yicheng & Liao, Sha & Jiang, Changmin & D’Alfonso, Tiziana, 2022. "Synthetic control methods for policy analysis: Evaluating the effect of the European Emission Trading System on aviation supply," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 236-252.
    4. Cheng, Junmei & Chen, Zhenhua, 2021. "Impact of high-speed rail on the operational capacity of conventional rail in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 354-367.
    5. Wong, Collin WH & Cheung, Tommy King Yin & Zhang, Anming, 2023. "A connectivity-based methodology for new air route identification," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Bernardo, Valeria & Fageda, Xavier, 2020. "Impacts of competition on connecting travelers: Evidence from the transatlantic aviation market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 141-151.
    7. Zhang, Linfeng & Hou, Meng & Liu, Yichen & Wang, Kun & Yang, Hangjun, 2022. "Measuring Beijing's international air connectivity and suggestions for improvement post COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 132-143.
    8. Klophaus, Richard & Grosche, Tobias, 2020. "Consumer surplus analysis of selected long-haul air transport routes connecting Germany with California and China," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Jo, Ah-Hyun & Chang, Young-Tae, 2023. "The effect of airport efficiency on air traffic, using DEA and multilateral resistance terms gravity models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    10. Tillmann, Andreas M. & Joormann, Imke & Ammann, Sabrina C.L., 2023. "Reproducible air passenger demand estimation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    11. Oesingmann, Katrin, 2022. "The effect of the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on aviation demand: An empirical comparison with the impact of ticket taxes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    12. Bridgelall, Raj, 2023. "Forecasting market opportunities for urban and regional air mobility," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    13. Button, Kenneth & Martini, Gianmaria & Scotti, Davide & Volta, Nicola, 2019. "Airline regulation and common markets in Sub-Saharan Africa," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 81-91.

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