IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v104y2021ics0140988321004072.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does oil price aggravate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank performance in India?

Author

Listed:
  • Nguyen, Thanh Pham Thien
  • Nghiem, Son
  • Tripe, David

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and bank performance in India over the period 2000–2016. We investigate the role of international crude oil price in this relationship that previous studies have ignored. We also investigate whether the effect of oil prices depends on inflationary conditions. Using a sample of Indian commercial banks from 2000 to 2016, we find that an increase in the Indian EPU is associated with increased risk-taking (insolvency, credit and liquidity risks), but improved cost management efficiency and profitability. The EPU and risk-taking relationships are aggravated by higher international oil prices. These effects of oil prices are not conditional on the inflation level in India. The results are robust to alternative Indian EPU calculations and estimation methods. We also investigate the role of international oil prices in the spillover of the US EPU to Indian banks' performance. We find that the US EPU affects Indian banks' credit risk, cost efficiency and profitability in the same sign as the Indian EPU, but the two latter effects are amplified by oil price rises, and the amplification effects are conditional on Indian inflation. The findings have important implications for policies for financial reform and financial stability in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Thanh Pham Thien & Nghiem, Son & Tripe, David, 2021. "Does oil price aggravate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank performance in India?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:104:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321004072
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105529
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321004072
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105529?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2013. "WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1032-1052, October.
    2. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2019. "Oil price shocks and Chinese banking performance: Do country risks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 46-53.
    3. Jingyu Chen & Faqi Jin & Guangda Ouyang & Jian Ouyang & Fenghua Wen, 2019. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industrial economic growth in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Zhao, Lin & Zhang, Xun & Wang, Shouyang & Xu, Shanying, 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 101-110.
    5. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    6. Padamja Khandelwal & Mr. Ken Miyajima & Mr. Andre O Santos, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC," IMF Working Papers 2016/161, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate risk-taking: International evidence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.
    8. LeBlanc, Michael & Chinn, Menzie David, 2004. "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4wt4m7hg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    9. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2012. "Do bank characteristics influence the effect of monetary policy on bank risk?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 220-222.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    11. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    12. Jeffrey Ng & Walid Saffar & Janus Jian Zhang, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and loan loss provisions in the banking industry," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 726-777, June.
    13. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Mirzaei, Ali, 2017. "The impact of oil price movements on bank non-performing loans: Global evidence from oil-exporting countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 193-208.
    14. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Rong Li & Sufang Li & Di Yuan & Keming Yu, 2020. "Does economic policy uncertainty in the U.S. influence stock markets in China and India? Time-frequency evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(39), pages 4300-4316, August.
    16. Klößner, Stefan & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2014. "International spillovers of policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 508-512.
    17. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    18. Ratti, Ronald A. & Seol, Youn & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2011. "Relative energy price and investment by European firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 721-731, September.
    19. Hooker, Mark A, 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 540-561, May.
    20. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Ersan, Oguz & Demir, Ender, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank credit growth: Evidence from European banks," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    21. Su, Chi-Wei & Huang, Shi-Wen & Qin, Meng & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Does crude oil price stimulate economic policy uncertainty in BRICS?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    22. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty and economic activity in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(21), pages 1517-1520, December.
    23. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2020. "Global spillover effects of US uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 71-89.
    24. Mirko Abbritti & Juan Equiza-Goñi & Fernando Perez Gracia & Tommaso Trani, 2020. "The effect of oil price shocks on economic activity: a local projections approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 708-723, October.
    25. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
    26. S. M. Woahid Murad & Ruhul Salim & Md. Golam Kibria, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 451-470, September.
    27. Jose de Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 155-208, January.
    28. Xiuwen Chen & Xiaolei Sun & Jianping Li, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty react to oil price shocks? A multi-scale perspective," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 188-193, February.
    29. Barraza, Santiago & Civelli, Andrea, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    30. Hu, Shiwei & Gong, Di, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 373-378.
    31. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    32. Ilyas, Muhammad & Khan, Aamir & Nadeem, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks and corporate investment: Evidence from the oil industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    33. Saleh Alodayni, 2016. "Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-14, November.
    34. Umer Iqbal & Christopher Gan & Muhammad Nadeem, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm performance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(10), pages 765-770, June.
    35. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Bermpei, Theodora, 2016. "What is the effect of unconventional monetary policy on bank performance?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 239-263.
    36. Álvarez, Luis J. & Hurtado, Samuel & Sánchez, Isabel & Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 422-431.
    37. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and bank loan contracting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 281-286.
    38. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O. & Oyewole, Oluwatomisin J. & Akanni, Lateef O., 2017. "Modelling oil price-inflation nexus: The role of asymmetries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 97-106.
    39. Adrian, Tobias & Song Shin, Hyun, 2010. "Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 601-650, Elsevier.
    40. Zafar Ahmad Sultan & Tarek Tawfek Yousef Alkhateeb & Mahmoud Mohamed Fawaz, 2020. "Empirical Investigation of Relationship between Oil Price and Inflation: The case of India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 90-94.
    41. Stojan Davidovic & Amit Kothiyal & Mirta Galesic & Konstantinos Katsikopoulos & Nimalan Arinaminpathy, 2019. "Liquidity Hoarding in Financial Networks: The Role of Structural Uncertainty," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-16, January.
    42. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Nguyen, Dat Thanh, 2019. "Crude oil price uncertainty and corporate investment: New global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 54-65.
    43. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Figueres, Juan Manuel, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 31-34.
    44. Yong Tan & Christos Floros, 2012. "Bank profitability and inflation: the case of China," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(6), pages 675-696, October.
    45. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    46. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    47. Salih Katırcıoglu & Nesrin Ozatac & Nigar Taspınar, 2020. "The role of oil prices, growth and inflation in bank profitability," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7-8), pages 565-584, June.
    48. Mallick, Hrushikesh & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sahoo, Manoranjan, 2018. "Is crude oil price detrimental to domestic private investment for an emerging economy? The role of public sector investment and financial sector development in an era of globalization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 307-324.
    49. Juthathip Jongwanich & Donghyun Park, 2011. "Inflation in developing Asia: pass‐through from global food and oil price shocks," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 25(1), pages 79-92, May.
    50. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2021. "Inflation expectations of households in India: Role of oil prices, economic policy uncertainty, and spillover of global financial uncertainty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 230-251, April.
    51. Zhang, Guangli & Han, Jianlei & Pan, Zheyao & Huang, Haozhi, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital structure choice: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 439-457.
    52. Fang, Jianchun & Lau, Chi-Keung Marco & Lu, Zhou & Tan, Yong & Zhang, Hua, 2019. "Bank performance in China: A Perspective from Bank efficiency, risk-taking and market competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 290-309.
    53. Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from BRIC countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 189-200.
    54. Wagner, Wolf, 2007. "The liquidity of bank assets and banking stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 121-139, January.
    55. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111427 is not listed on IDEAS
    56. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Cunado, Juncal & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Oil price-inflation pass-through in the United States over 1871 to 2018: A wavelet coherency analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-55.
    57. Berg, Tobias & Saunders, Anthony & Schäfer, Larissa & Steffen, Sascha, 2021. "Brexit and the contraction of syndicated lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 66-82.
    58. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Ozili, Peterson, 2021. "Loan loss provisioning of US banks: Economic policy uncertainty and discretionary behavior," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 923-935.
    59. Nilavongse, Rachatar & Rubaszek, Michał, & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty shocks, economic activity, and exchange rate adjustments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    60. John Oliver, 2020. "The Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm Investment in Germany," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 34-41.
    61. Christian Gillitzer & Nalini Prasad & Tim Robinson, 2021. "Political Attitudes and Inflation Expectations: Evidence and Implications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 605-634, June.
    62. Anh‐Tuan Doan & Anh‐Tuan Le & Quan Tran, 2020. "Economic uncertainty, ownership structure and small and medium enterprises performance," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 102-137, June.
    63. Ameni Ghenimi & Hasna Chaibi & Mohamed Ali Brahim Omri, 2017. "The effects of liquidity risk and credit risk on bank stability: Evidence from the MENA region," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 17(4), pages 238-248, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hasan, Mostafa Monzur & Wong, Jin Boon & Al Mamun, Mohammed Abdullah, 2022. "Oil shocks and corporate social responsibility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Chen, Lin & Wen, Fenghua & Zhang, Yun & Miao, Xiao, 2023. "Oil supply expectations and corporate social responsibility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    3. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Deng, Wei & Gao, Lei & Xing, Fei & Yang, Ming, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank deposits, and liability structure," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Dang, Van Dan & Nguyen, Hoang Chung, 2022. "Bank profitability under uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-134.
    6. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    7. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Le, Thai-Ha & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in banking: a literature review," MPRA Paper 108017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.
    10. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate risk-taking: International evidence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.
    11. Wang, Yilei & Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty respond to the global oil price fluctuations? Evidence from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Huang, Xuan & Liu, Xueyong, 2022. "The time-frequency evolution of multidimensional relations between global oil prices and China's general price level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    13. Duan, Yuejiao & Fan, Xiaoyun & Wang, Yu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A cross-country analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Youshu Li & Junjie Guo, 2022. "The asymmetric impacts of oil price and shocks on inflation in BRICS: a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 1377-1395, March.
    15. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    16. Ozili, Peterson K, 2021. "Financial reporting under economic policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 105089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Hamza Almustafa & Imad Jabbouri & Ploypailin Kijkasiwat, 2023. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Leverage, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from U.S. Firms," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, January.
    18. Ilyas, Muhammad & Khan, Aamir & Nadeem, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks and corporate investment: Evidence from the oil industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    19. Klayme, Tania & Gokmenoglu, Korhan K. & Rustamov, Bezhan, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, COVID-19 and corporate investment: Evidence from the gold mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    20. Jun Wen & Samia Khalid & Hamid Mahmood & Xiuyun Yang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and growth nexus in Pakistan: a new evidence using NARDL model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1701-1715, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; Oil price; Bank performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:104:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321004072. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.