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The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation

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  • Luis J. Álvarez

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Samuel Hurtado

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Isabel Sánchez

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Carlos Thomas

    ()
    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation. We find, consistently with recent international evidence, that the inflationary effect of oil price changes is limited, even though crude oil price fluctuations are a major driver of inflation variability. The impact on Spanish inflation is found to be somewhat higher than in the euro area. Direct effects are increasing over time, reflecting the higher spending of households on refined oil products, whereas indirect ones, defined in broad terms, are losing importance.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/09/Fic/do0904e.pdf
File Function: First version, October 2009
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers with number 0904.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:0904

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Keywords: oil prices; consumer price infl ation; Spanish and Euro area inflation; DSGE models;

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References

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  1. Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Ángel Estrada, 2006. "BEMOD: a DSGE model for the Spanish economy and the rest of the Euro area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0631, Banco de Espa�a.
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  9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," Economics Working Papers 1045, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008.
  10. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Alvarez & Herve Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lunnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 171-192, Spring.
  11. Javier Andrés & Samuel Hurtado & Eva Ortega & Carlos Thomas, 2009. "Spain in the euro: a general equilibrium analysis," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0927, Banco de Espa�a.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
  2. Spencer, Thomas & Lucas, Chancel & Emmanuel, Guerin, 2012. "Exiting the crisis in the right direction: A sustainable and shared prosperity plan for Europe," MPRA Paper 38802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. KARGI, Bilal, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Prices On Inflation and Growth: Time Series Analysis In Turkish Economy For 1988:01-2013:04 Period," MPRA Paper 55704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "Inflation Persistence or the Protracted Effects of Commodity Price Changes?," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.
  5. Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Montañés, Antonio & Gadea, M. Dolores, 2011. "The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1070-1081.
  6. Javier Andrés & Samuel Hurtado & Eva Ortega & Carlos Thomas, 2009. "Spain in the euro: a general equilibrium analysis," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0927, Banco de Espa�a.
  7. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi, 2011. "Does crude oil move stock markets in Europe? A sector investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1716-1725, July.
  8. Moya-Martínez, Pablo & Ferrer-Lapeña, Román & Escribano-Sotos, Francisco, 2014. "Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 280-290.
  9. Xiao, Wei-Lin & Zhang, Wei-Guo & Yao, Zheng & Wang, Xiao-Hui, 2013. "The impact of issuing warrant and debt on behavior of the firm's stock," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 635-641.

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