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Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Stagflation of the 1970s: Some Insights from GEM

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  • Benjamin Hunt
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    Abstract

    Using a variant of the IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM), featuring energy as both an intermediate input into production and a final consumption good, this paper examines the macroeconomic implications of large increases in the price of energy. Within a fully optimizing framework with nominal and real rigidities arising from costly adjustment, large increases in energy prices can generate inflation persistence similar to that seen in the 1970s if the monetary authority misperceives the economyÕs supply capacity and workers are able to temporarily resist some of the erosion in their real consumption wages resulting from the energy price increase. In the absence of these two responses, the model suggests that energy price shocks cannot generate the type of stagflation witnessed in the 1970s. The analysis goes some way toward reconciling the results found in the empirical literature on the changing nature of the macroeconomic implications of oil price shocks.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

    Volume (Year): Volume 27 (2006)
    Issue (Month): Number 4 ()
    Pages: 61-80

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    Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2006v27-04-a03

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    Cited by:
    1. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Xinwei Zheng, 2010. "Gold and Oil Futures Markets: Are Markets Efficient?," Economics Series 2010_13, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
    2. AydIn, Levent & Acar, Mustafa, 2011. "Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1722-1731, March.
    3. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 130-137.
    4. Álvarez, Luis J. & Hurtado, Samuel & Sánchez, Isabel & Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 422-431, January.
    5. Lorde, Troy & Jackman, Mahalia & Thomas, Chrystol, 2009. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country: The case of Trinidad and Tobago," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2708-2716, July.
    6. Jozef Barunik & Evzen Kocenda & Lukas Vacha, 2013. "Gold, Oil, and Stocks," Papers 1308.0210, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.
    7. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2013. "Volatility transmission between gold and oil futures under structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 113-121.
    8. Thai-Ha Le & Youngho Chang, 2012. "Oil Price Shocks and Gold Returns," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 131, pages 71-104.

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