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Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence

In: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements

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  • KYLE HANDLEY
  • NUNO LIMÃO

Abstract

In a dynamic model with sunk export costs, a firm’s export investment is lower under trade policy uncertainty, and credible preferential trade agreements (PTAs) increase trade even if current tariffs are low. Exploring Portugal’s accession to the European Community as a policy uncertainty shock we find that the trade reform accounted for a large fraction of Portuguese exporting firms’ entry and sales; the accession removed uncertainty about future EC trade policies; and this uncertainty channel accounted for a large fraction of the predicted growth. Our approach can be applied to other PTAs and sources of policy uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789813147980_0004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; International Trade; WTO; World Trade Organization; Investment; Globalization; Externality; Policy; Cooperation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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