IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v102y2021ics0140988321003716.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China-to-FOB price transmission in the rare earth elements market and the end of Chinese export restrictions

Author

Listed:
  • Seiler, Volker

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the end of the export quota system (EQS) on China-to-export price transmission in the rare earth elements market, taking into account threshold effects and price transmission asymmetries. The results indicate that export prices became more responsive to changes of Chinese prices after the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) abandoned the exort quota policy. While price shocks wash out much quicker in the Post-EQS period, we do not find evidence for rockets and feathers-type of behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Seiler, Volker, 2021. "China-to-FOB price transmission in the rare earth elements market and the end of Chinese export restrictions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:102:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321003716
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321003716
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105485?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schmalensee, Richard, 2015. "The future of solar energy: A personal assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 142-148.
    2. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    3. Charlier, Christophe & Guillou, Sarah, 2014. "Distortion effects of export quota policy: an analysis of the China-Raw Materials dispute," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 320-338.
    4. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera, 2007. "Econometric Models Of Asymmetric Price Transmission," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 349-415, April.
    5. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J., "undated". "Level Shifts and Purchasing Power Parity," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics levshift, Boston College Department of Economics.
    6. Ahrens, Steffen & Pirschel, Inske & Snower, Dennis J., 2017. "A theory of price adjustment under loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 78-95.
    7. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1991. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1039-1061.
    8. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 145-159, Supplemen.
    9. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
    10. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    11. Raphael Schoenle, 2017. "International Menu Costs and Price Dynamics," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 578-606, August.
    12. Alan S. Blinder, 1994. "On Sticky Prices: Academic Theories Meet the Real World," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 117-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Proelss, Juliane & Schweizer, Denis & Seiler, Volker, 2020. "The economic importance of rare earth elements volatility forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Jochen Meyer & Stephan von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 581-611, November.
    15. Keilhacker, Michael L. & Minner, Stefan, 2017. "Supply chain risk management for critical commodities: A system dynamics model for the case of the rare earth elements," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 349-362.
    16. Proelss, Juliane & Schweizer, Denis & Seiler, Volker, 2018. "Do announcements of WTO dispute resolution cases matter? Evidence from the rare earth elements market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-23.
    17. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    18. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    19. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
    20. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Maximilian A. Müller & Denis Schweizer & Volker Seiler, 2016. "Wealth Effects of Rare Earth Prices and China’s Rare Earth Elements Policy," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 138(4), pages 627-648, November.
    22. Brown, Maxwell & Eggert, Roderick, 2018. "Simulating producer responses to selected chinese rare earth policies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 31-48.
    23. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
    24. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    25. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    26. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    27. Apergis, Emmanuel & Apergis, Nicholas, 2017. "The role of rare earth prices in renewable energy consumption: The actual driver for a renewable energy world," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-42.
    28. Golev, Artem & Scott, Margaretha & Erskine, Peter D. & Ali, Saleem H. & Ballantyne, Grant R., 2014. "Rare earths supply chains: Current status, constraints and opportunities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 52-59.
    29. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    30. Patricia B. Reagan, 1982. "Inventory and Price Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(1), pages 137-142.
    31. Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ballester, Laura & Barbopoulos, Leonidas & Brzeszczynski, Janusz & Carchano, Oscar & Dimic, Nebojsa & Fernandez, Viviana & Gogolin, Fabian & González-Urteaga, Ana , 2018. "Future directions in international financial integration research - A crowdsourced perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 35-49.
    32. Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 1991. "Sticky Prices as Coordination Failure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 539-552, June.
    33. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    34. Yuzhou Shen & Ruthann Moomy & Roderick G. Eggert, 2020. "China’s public policies toward rare earths, 1975–2018," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 127-151, July.
    35. J. K. Galbraith, 1936. "Monopoly Power and Price Rigidities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 50(3), pages 456-475.
    36. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs & Satija, Gaurav & Zhao, Fu, 2017. "Sustainability of solar electricity: The role of endogenous resource substitution and cross-sectoral responses," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 218-232.
    37. Sun, Changyou, 2011. "Price dynamics in the import wooden bed market of the United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 479-487, July.
    38. ZHANG, Lu & GUO, Qing & ZHANG, Junbiao & HUANG, Yong & XIONG, Tao, 2015. "Did China׳s rare earth export policies work? — Empirical evidence from USA and Japan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 82-90.
    39. Schalck, Christophe & Chenavaz, Régis, 2015. "Oil commodity returns and macroeconomic factors: A time-varying approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 290-303.
    40. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    41. Vigne, Samuel A. & Lucey, Brian M. & O’Connor, Fergal A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2017. "The financial economics of white precious metals — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 292-308.
    42. Sam Peltzman, 2000. "Prices Rise Faster than They Fall," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 466-502, June.
    43. Richard Damania & Bill Z. Yang, 1998. "Price Rigidity and Asymmetric Price Adjustment in a Repeated Oligopoly," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 154(4), pages 659-659, December.
    44. Bacon, Robert W., 1991. "Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of UK retail gasoline prices to cost changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-218, July.
    45. Robert J. Barro, 1972. "A Theory of Monopolistic Price Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 39(1), pages 17-26.
    46. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    47. Schmid, Marc, 2019. "Mitigating supply risks through involvement in rare earth projects: Japan's strategies and what the US can learn," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    48. Al-Abri, Almukhtar S. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2009. "Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 142-161, January.
    49. Marc Schmid, 2019. "Rare Earths in the Trade Dispute Between the US and China: A Déjà Vu," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(6), pages 378-384, November.
    50. Eytan Sheshinski & Yoram Weiss, 1977. "Inflation and Costs of Price Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(2), pages 287-303.
    51. Jun Lee & Miguel I. Gómez, 2013. "Impacts of the End of the Coffee Export Quota System on International-to-Retail Price Transmission," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 343-362, June.
    52. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammad J Alam & Raghbendra Jha, 2016. "Asymmetric threshold vertical price transmission in wheat and flour markets in Dhaka (Bangladesh): seemingly unrelated regression analysis," ASARC Working Papers 2016-03, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    2. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "On The Term Structure of South African Interest Rates: Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," MPRA Paper 67681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "On the term structure of South African interest rates: cointegration and threshold adjustment," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(4), pages 300-321.
    4. Chanjin Chung & Johnna Rushin & Prasanna Surathkal, 2018. "Impact of the livestock mandatory reporting act on the vertical price transmission within the beef supply chain," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 562-578, June.
    5. Zouheir Ahmed Mighri & Majid Ibrahim Alsaggaf, 2019. "Asymmetric Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Adjustment between Oil Prices and Financial Stress," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 87-105.
    6. Rather, Sartaj Rasool & Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Ramachandran, M., 2015. "Asymmetric price adjustment – evidence for India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 73-79.
    7. Asane-Otoo, Emmanuel & Schneider, Jan, 2015. "Retail fuel price adjustment in Germany: A threshold cointegration approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-10.
    8. Gonzalo, Jesùs & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2005. "Threshold effects In multivariate error correction models," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0501, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    9. Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2016. "Asymmetric price transmission within the Argentinean stock market: an asymmetric threshold cointegration approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1115-1149, November.
    10. Ben Kaabia, Monia & Gil, Jose Maria, 2005. "Asymetric Price Transmission in the Spanish Lamb Sector," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24631, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Mallick, Lingaraj & Behera, Smruti Ranjan & Murthy, R.V. Ramana, 2021. "Does the twin deficit hypothesis exist in India? Empirical evidence from an asymmetric non-linear cointegration approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    12. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2020. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 242248, October.
    13. Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2015. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in Nigeria: A revisit of the energy-growth debate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 166-176.
    14. Bairagi, S. & Mohanty, S., 2018. "Analysis of Price Transmission along the Cambodian Rice Value Chain," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277022, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2018. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 251114, October.
    16. Kourtzidis, Stavros A. & Tzeremes, Panayiotis & Tzeremes, Nickolaos G., 2018. "Re-evaluating the energy consumption-economic growth nexus for the United States: An asymmetric threshold cointegration analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 537-545.
    17. Bagnai, Alberto & Mongeau Ospina, Christian Alexander, 2015. "Long- and short-run price asymmetries and hysteresis in the Italian gasoline market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 41-50.
    18. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    19. Sun, Changyou, 2011. "Price dynamics in the import wooden bed market of the United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 479-487, July.
    20. Lusine Lusinyan & John Thornton, 2011. "Unit roots, structural breaks and cointegration in the UK public finances, 1750-2004," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2583-2592.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rare earth elements; Export quotas; Asymmetric price transmission; Threshold autoregression (TAR); Threshold error correction model (TECM);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:102:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321003716. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.