The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions
AbstractWe consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a two-year horizon.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 90 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
Other versions of this item:
- Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions," Working Papers 2004-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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