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Recession and recovery across the nation: lessons from history

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  • Chad R. Wilkerson
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    Abstract

    The U.S. economy officially fell into recession in December 2007, but the timing of the downturn varied widely across regions of the country. In some regions, employment began to erode much earlier in 2007, while in other regions economic activity stayed strong well into the second half of 2008. Do regions typically vary this much in the timing and circumstances of their recessions? If so, perhaps past experience can also shed light on whether some regions can be expected to rebound earlier or stronger than others from this recession. ; To explore these possibilities, Wilkerson looks at job growth trends across the 12 districts of the Federal Reserve System in recent business cycles. He finds that the timing and depth of regional recessions typically vary widely, with several districts regularly outperforming others. The same generally holds true for the timing and strength of economic recoveries and expansions across the country. Some of these differences can be explained by the unique industrial structures of the districts, but other factors also play a role.

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    File URL: http://www.kansascityfed.org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/pdf/09q2Wilkerson.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its journal Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): (2009)
    Issue (Month): Q II ()
    Pages: 5-24

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2009:i:qii:p:5-24:n:v.94no.2

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    1. Jane Katz, 1999. "When the Economy Goes South," Regional Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q3, pages 24--31.
    2. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
    3. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. " Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-89, August.
    4. Michael T. Owyang & David E. Rapach & Howard J. Wall, 2008. "States and the business cycle," Working Papers 2007-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Gerald A. Carlino, 2007. "The great moderation in economic volatility: a view from the states," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 11-20.
    6. Garcia-Mila, Teresa & McGuire, Therese J., 1993. "Industrial mix as a factor in the growth and variability of states' economies," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 731-748, December.
    7. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
    8. Chad R. Wilkerson & Megan D. Williams, 2007. "The Tenth District's defining industries: how are they changing?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 59-81.
    9. Chad Wilkerson, 2005. "What do expected changes in U.S. job structure mean for states and workers in the Tenth District?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 59-93.
    10. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2005. "Regional cyclical asymmetries in an optimal currency area: an analysis using US state data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 373-397, July.
    11. Troy Davig, 2008. "Detecting recessions in the Great Moderation: a real-time analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-33.
    12. Michael Porter, 2003. "The Economic Performance of Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6-7), pages 549-578.
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