IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v40y2017i1p116-139.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Labour Migration and Economic Growth in East and South-East Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Terrie Walmsley
  • Angel Aguiar
  • Syud Amer Ahmed

Abstract

East and Southeast Asia face major demographic changes over the next few decades as many countries'labor forces will start to decline, while others will experience higher labor force growth as populations and participation rates increase. A well-managed labor migration strategy presents itself as a mechanism for ameliorating the impending labor shortages in some East-Asia Pacific countries, while providing an opportunity for other countries with excess labor to provide migrant workers that will contribute to the development of the home country through greater remittance flows. Although migration would be unable to offset the economic impacts of the declining labor forces in the countries with shrinking populations, a more flexible migration policy, allowing migrants to respond to the major demographic changes occurring in Asia over the next 50 years, would be beneficial to most economies in the region in terms of real incomes and real gross domestic product over the 2007-2050 period. Such a policy could deeply affect the net migration position of a country. Countries that were net recipients under current migration policies might become net senders under the more liberal policy regime.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Terrie Walmsley & Angel Aguiar & Syud Amer Ahmed, 2017. "Labour Migration and Economic Growth in East and South-East Asia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 116-139, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:1:p:116-139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/twec.12334
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    2. Antonio Spilimbergo & Gordon H. Hanson, 1999. "Illegal Immigration, Border Enforcement, and Relative Wages: Evidence from Apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico Border," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1337-1357, December.
    3. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-32, Spring.
    4. Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
    5. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2006. "International Labour Migration in East Asia: trends, patterns and policy issues," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 20, pages 18-39, May.
    6. Blume, Kraen & Verner, Mette, 2007. "Welfare dependency among Danish immigrants," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 453-471, June.
    7. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2007. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 537-566, April.
    8. Takao KOMINE & Shigesaburo KABE, 2009. "Long‐term Forecast of the Demographic Transition in Japan and Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 19-38, June.
    9. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    10. Borjas, George J, 1999. "Immigration and Welfare Magnets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 607-637, October.
    11. Ianchovichina, Elena & McDougall, Robert, 2000. "Theoretical Structure Of Dynamic Gtap," Technical Papers 28723, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    13. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2006. "International Labour Migration in East Asia: trends, patterns and policy issues," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 20(1), pages 18-39, May.
    14. Takashi INOGUCHI, 2009. "Demographic Change and Asian Dynamics: Social and Political Implications," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 142-157, June.
    15. Walmsley, Terrie L. & Winters, L. Alan & Ahmed, S. Amer & Parsons, Christopher R., 2005. "Measuring the Impact of the Movement of Labour Using a Model of Bilateral Migration Flows," Conference papers 331440, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Chris Manning & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2007. "The Regulation of Professional Migration: Insights from the Health and IT Sectors in ASEAN," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(7), pages 1084-1113, July.
    17. Pissarides, Christopher A & McMaster, Ian, 1990. "Regional Migration, Wages and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 812-831, October.
    18. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    19. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    20. Massey, Douglas S. & Taylor, J. Edward (ed.), 2004. "International Migration: Prospects and Policies in a Global Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199269006.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, S. Amer & Go,Delfin Sia & Willenbockel,Dirk Andreas, 2016. "Global migration revisited : short-term pains, long-term gains, and the potential of south-south migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7628, The World Bank.
    2. Minh Tam T. Bui, 2019. "International migration and foreign direct investment within Southeast Asia," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 731-755, October.
    3. Standardi, Gabriele, 2014. "Endogenous determination of migration flows between Africa and European Union by interlinking demographic dynamics and labor market liberalization in a modified version of the GTAP model," Conference papers 332438, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, 2014. "How significant is Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7134, The World Bank.
    5. Jean Foure & Angel Aguiar & Ruben Bibas & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Julien Lefevre & Marian Leimbach & Luis Rey-Los-Santos & Hugo Valin, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Baseline Scenarios in Dynamic CGE models: Review and Guidelines Proposal," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 28-62, June.
    6. Kris Hartley & Jun Jie Woo & Sun Kyo Chung, 2018. "Urban innovation policy in the postdevelopmental era: Lessons from Singapore and Seoul," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 599-614, September.
    7. Khalid M. Kisswani & Saleheen Khan, 2023. "Immigration and GDP nexus: is the association asymmetric?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 215-236, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mueller, Marc, 2010. "Conceptual Challenges for the Integration of Agricultural Sector and General Equilibrium Models: the databases of CAPRI and GTAP," Conference papers 331937, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. E. J. Wilson & K. Jayanthakumaran & R. Verma, 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," Development Economics Working Papers 23348, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    4. Michele Tuccio, 2017. "Determinants of Intra-ASEAN Migration," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 34(1), pages 144-166, March.
    5. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    6. Peter Huber & Doris A. Oberdabernig & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an Ageing Europe: What are the Challenges? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 79," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57886, April.
    7. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Ken Itakura, . "Assessing the Economic Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on ASEAN Member States," Chapters, in: Lili Yan Ing (ed.), East Asian Integration (First Edition), chapter 1, pages 1-24, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    9. Takatoshi ITO & Akira KOJIMA & Colin McKENZIE & Shujiro URATA, 2009. "Editors’ Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, June.
    10. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
    11. Aguiar, Angel H. & Walmsley, Terrie L., 2014. "The importance of timing in the U.S. response to undocumented immigrants: A recursive dynamic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-262.
    12. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    13. Nifo, Annamaria & Pagnotta, Stefano & Scalera, Domenico, 2011. "The best and brightest. Selezione positiva e brain drain nelle migrazioni interne italiane [The best and brightest. Positive selection and brain drain in Italian internal migrations]," MPRA Paper 34506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    15. Mellado, Aida Gonzalez & Ferrari, Emanuele, 2011. "A CGE model analysis of reducing obstacles to trade in Kenya: a focus on the agro-food sector," Conference papers 332119, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2007. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 537-566, April.
    17. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.
    18. Hajamini, Mehdi, 2015. "The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 43-58.
    19. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2010. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Financial Reform," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 592-610, August.
    20. Fabien Prieur & Ingmar Schumacher, 2016. "The role of conflict for optimal climate and immigration policy," Working Papers 2016.27, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:1:p:116-139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.