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Long-term Forecast of the Demographic Transition in Japan and Asia

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  • Takao KOMINE
  • Shigesaburo KABE
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    Abstract

    The demographic structure of Asia is expected to change rapidly from around 2020 up to around 2050. Following Japan, which is already at an advanced stage of aging and birthrate decline, China, South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore will also witness a further decline in their birthrates and an aging of their populations. Next in line will be the remaining countries of the Association of South-East Asian Nations as well as India. Such changes, accompanied by a decline in the labor force, will not only adversely affect economic growth, but also have a major impact on voting structures, savings rates, and social security systems. Moreover, the process of demographic aging in Asia will be faster than in Japan, and its extent will be substantial, both of which exacerbates the negative effects. On positive side, these trends will give rise to the emergence of new markets. Copyright (c) 2009 The Authors. Journal Compilation (c) 2009 Japan Center for Economic Research.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Japan Center for Economic Research in its journal Asian Economic Policy Review.

    Volume (Year): 4 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 19-38

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:4:y:2009:i:1:p:19-38

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    Cited by:
    1. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2012. "Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?," NBER Working Papers 18287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Walmsley, Terrie & Aguiar, Angel & Ahmed, S. Amer, 2013. "Labor migration and economic growth in east and southeast Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6643, The World Bank.

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