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Labor migration and economic growth in east and southeast Asia

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  • Walmsley, Terrie
  • Aguiar, Angel
  • Ahmed, S. Amer

Abstract

East and Southeast Asia face major demographic changes over the next few decades as many countries'labor forces will start to decline, while others will experience higher labor force growth as populations and participation rates increase. A well-managed labor migration strategy presents itself as a mechanism for ameliorating the impending labor shortages in some East-Asia Pacific countries, while providing an opportunity for other countries with excess labor to provide migrant workers that will contribute to the development of the home country through greater remittance flows. Although migration would be unable to offset the economic impacts of the declining labor forces in the countries with shrinking populations, a more flexible migration policy, allowing migrants to respond to the major demographic changes occurring in Asia over the next 50 years, would be beneficial to most economies in the region in terms of real incomes and real gross domestic product over the 2007-2050 period. Such a policy could deeply affect the net migration position of a country. Countries that were net recipients under current migration policies might become net senders under the more liberal policy regime.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6643.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2013
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6643

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Keywords: Population Policies; Labor Markets; Banks&Banking Reform; Labor Policies; Economic Growth;

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  1. Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  2. Chris Manning & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2007. "The Regulation of Professional Migration: Insights from the Health and IT Sectors in ASEAN," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(7), pages 1084-1113, 07.
  3. Pissarides, Christopher A & McMaster, Ian, 1990. "Regional Migration, Wages and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 812-31, October.
  4. Ozden, Caglar & Parsons, Christopher R. & Schiff, Maurice & Walmsley, Terrie L., 2011. "Where on earth is everybody ? the evolution of global bilateral migration 1960-2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5709, The World Bank.
  5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 13221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Takao KOMINE & Shigesaburo KABE, 2009. "Long-term Forecast of the Demographic Transition in Japan and Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 19-38.
  7. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Walmsley, Terrie & Alan Winters & Syud Amer Ahmed, 2007. "Measuring the Impact of the Movement of Labor Using a Model of Bilateral Migration Flows," GTAP Technical Papers 2529, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  9. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2006. "International Labour Migration in East Asia: trends, patterns and policy issues," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 20, pages 18-39, 05.
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