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Terrorism and Cabinet Duration: An Empirical Analysis

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Author Info
Martin Gassebner () (Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich)
Richard Jong-A-Pin () (University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business, The Netherlands)
Jochen O. Mierau () (University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business, The Netherlands)

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Abstract

We examine the relationship between terrorism and cabinet duration. Our data set includes more than 2,400 cabinets in over 150 countries in the period 1968-2002. We find a small, but significant effect of terrorism on the probability of government failure. Furthermore, we find that the impact of terrorism depends on the type of attack and is larger in case of more severe attacks. Marginal effect calculations show that the impact of terror on cabinet duration is larger than the impact of economic variables such as economic growth, but less than the impact of a civil war or a government crisis. Our results suggest that cabinets in countries with high levels of terrorism are particularly vulnerable to terrorist attacks.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series Working papers with number 07-181.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:07-181

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Related research
Keywords: terror political stability cabinet dissolution

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
F59 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - Other
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models

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  2. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2002. "New Evidence on the Politics and Economics of Multiparty Cabinets Duration," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(3), pages 249-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Axel Dreher & Justina A.V. Fischer, 2008. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? An empirical test," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-01, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
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