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On the Optimal Lifetime of Nuclear Power Plants

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  • Rothwell, Geoffrey
  • Rust, John

Abstract

The authors present an empirical model of optimal operation of nuclear power plants. The optimal lifetime is the solution to an optimal stopping problem: the plant is closed when the expected discounted losses from continued operation exceed the discounted costs of decommissioning. The authors forecast the evolution of the nuclear power industry under the current regime of forty-year operating licenses and for a policy allowing twenty-year license extensions. They conclude that the extension would double the expected discounted value of U.S. nuclear power plants and double the undiscounted electrical power output of the U.S. nuclear industry over its remaining lifetime.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 15 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 195-208

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:15:y:1997:i:2:p:195-208

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References

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  1. Geoffrey Rothwell & John Rust, 1995. "A Dynamic Programming Model of U.S. Nuclear Power Plant Operations," Microeconomics 9502001, EconWPA, revised 06 Feb 1995.
  2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1988. "Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests for Econometric Models: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1419-53, November.
  3. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
  4. Rothwell, Geoffrey, 1990. "Utilization and service : Decomposing nuclear reactor capacity factors," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 215-229, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2008. "Pseudo-likelihood estimation and bootstrap inference for structural discrete Markov decision models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 92-106, September.
  2. Jensen, J. Bradford & Rothwell, Geoffrey S., 1998. "Transaction costs, regulation, and subcontracting at nuclear power plants," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 369-381, August.
  3. Sanghamitra Das & Ramprasad Sengupta, 2004. "Projection pursuit regression and disaggregate productivity effects: the case of the Indian blast furnaces," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 397-418.
  4. Le-Yu Chen, 2009. "Identification of structural dynamic discrete choice models," CeMMAP working papers CWP08/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  5. Arcidiacono, Peter, 2004. "Ability sorting and the returns to college major," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 343-375.
  6. George C. Bitros & Elias Flytzanis, 2003. "A Rehabilitation of Economic Replacement Theory," Macroeconomics 0303009, EconWPA.

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