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How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets

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Author Info
John Rust (Yale University)
Christopher Phelan (Northwestern University)

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Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of how the U.S. Social Security and Medicare insurance system affect the labor supply of older males in the presence of incomplete markets for loans, annuities, and health insurance. Using data from the Retirement History Survey, we estimate a detailed dynamic programming (DP) model of the joint labor supply and Social Security acceptance decision, focusing on a sample of males in the low to middle income brackets whose only pension is Social Security. Comparisons of actual vs. predicted behavior show that the DP model is able to account for wide variety of phenomena observed in the data, including the pronounced peaks in the distribution of retirement ages at 62 and 65 (the ages of early and normal eligibility for Social Security benefits, respectively). The peak at 62 is a result of borrowing constraints that prevent individuals with relatively little tangible net worth from retiring prior to the age of first eligibility for early retirement benefits. The peak at age 65 is a result of incomplete markets for annuities and health insurance and the fact that Social Security benefit formula is actuarially unfair for retirements after age 65.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Public Economics with number 9406005.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 30 Jun 1994
Date of revision: 06 Jul 1994
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwppe:9406005

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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
H - Public Economics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kahn, James A., 1988. "Social security, liquidity, and early retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 97-117, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. repec:att:wimass:19916 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Roger H. Gordon & Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Market Wages, Reservation Wages, and Retirement Decisions," NBER Working Papers 0513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1994. "The Solution and Estimation of Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Models by Simulation and Interpolation: Monte Carlo Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 648-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Burtless, Gary, 1986. "Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increases, and the Timing of Retirement," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 781-805, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Berkovec, James & Stern, Steven, 1991. "Job Exit Behavior of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 189-210, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Social Security Benefits: An Empirical Study of Expectations and Realizations," NBER Working Papers 2257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Boskin, Michael J. & Hurd, Michael D., 1978. "The effect of social security on early retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 361-377, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1986. "A Structural Retirement Model," NBER Working Papers 1237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Crawford, Vincent P & Lilien, David M, 1981. "Social Security and the Retirement Decision," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(3), pages 505-29, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Michael D. Hurd, 1993. "The Effect of Labor Market Rigidities on the Labor Force Behavior of Older Workers," NBER Working Papers 4462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Gustman, Alan L & Steinmeier, Thomas L, 1986. "A Structural Retirement Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 555-84, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Boskin, Michael J, 1977. "Social Security and Retirement Decisions," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 1-25, January.
  15. Bernheim, B Douglas & Bagwell, Kyle, 1988. "Is Everything Neutral?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 308-38, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. John Bound, 1989. "The Health and Earnings of Rejected Disability Insurance Applicants," NBER Working Papers 2816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Stock, James H & Wise, David A, 1990. "Pensions, the Option Value of Work, and Retirement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1151-80, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Lundberg, Shelly J, 1985. "Tied Wage-Hours Offers and the Endogeneity of Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 405-10, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark Warshawsky, 1988. "Annuity Prices and Saving Behavior in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions in the U.S. Economy, pages 53-84 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  20. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1993. "Employer Provided Health Insurance and Retirement Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "How Do the Elderly Form Expectations? An Analysis of Responses to New Information," NBER Working Papers 2719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1992. "Pension Plan Provisions and Retirement: Men & Women, Medicare, and Models," NBER Working Papers 4201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Hurd, Michael D, 1990. "Research on the Elderly: Economic Status, Retirement, and Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 565-637, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 1990. "But They Don't Want to Reduce Housing Equity," NBER Working Papers 2859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Alan B. Krueger & Jorn-Steffen Pischke, 1991. "The Effect of Social Security on Labor Supply: A Cohort Analysis of the Notch Generation," NBER Working Papers 3699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. John Rust, 1989. "Behavior of male workers at the end of the life-cycle: an empirical analysis of states and controls," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 6, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Andrews, Donald W K, 1988. "Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests for Econometric Models: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1419-53, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1992. "Three Models of Retirement: Computational Complexity Versus Predictive Validity," NBER Working Papers 3558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. John Rust, 1987. "A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior," NBER Working Papers 2470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1995. "Why are Retirement Rates So High at Age 65?," NBER Working Papers 5190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Ruhm, Christopher J, 1990. "Bridge Jobs and Partial Retirement," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(4), pages 482-501, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark Warshawsky, 1988. "Annuity Prices and Saving Behavior in the United States," NBER Working Papers 1683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Jonathan Gruber & Brigitte Madrian, 1993. "Health Insurance and Early Retirement: Evidence from the Availability of Continuation Coverage," NBER Working Papers 4594, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  35. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David A. Wise, 1994. "Aging and Labor Force Participation: A Review of Trends and Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Aging in the United States and Japan: Economic Trends, pages 7-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  36. MaCurdy, Thomas E, 1983. "A Simple Scheme for Estimating an Intertemporal Model of Labor Supply and Consumption in the Presence of Taxes and Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(2), pages 265-89, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Alan S. Blinder & Roger H. Gordon & Donald E. Wise, 1981. "Reconsidering the Work Disincentive Effects of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 0562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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