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Automated model linkages: the example of CAPRI

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  • Britz, Wolfgang

Abstract

Increasing demand for policy impact assessment regarding social, economic and environmental aspects asks for combined application of different models and tools. The paper discusses concepts and challenges in linking models, taking CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) model as an example. CAPRI combines different economic models, spatial downscaling and interfaces to bio-physical components. 250 non-linear regional programming models with econometrically estimated costs functions cover the EU-27, Norway and Western Balkans. They are consistently linked to a spatial globally closed trade model, covering 60 countries / country blocks and 50 primary and secondary agricultural products. The link is based on sequential calibration: the market models prices drive the programming models whereas its supply and feed demand curves are calibrated to the programming models’ results, iteratively repeated to convergence. CAPRI integrates projection results from other model systems in the baseline generation and calibrates the supply models to econometric estimations or the supply response from other models as in SEAMLESS. The spatial down-scaling component breaks down the regional EU-27 results regarding cropping shares, crop yields, animal stocking densities and fertilizer application rates to about 140 000 1x1 km pixel cluster and links these results to a statistical meta model of the bio-physical model DNDC.

Suggested Citation

  • Britz, Wolfgang, 2008. "Automated model linkages: the example of CAPRI," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-5.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:97707
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.97707
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    1. Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen P. & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Edward & Woma, 2006. "FAPRI 2006 U.S. And World Agricultural Outlook," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12597, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
      • Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddi, 2006. "FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook," FAPRI Staff Reports 7319, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
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    1. Gocht, Alexander & Britz, Wolfgang & Ciaian, Pavel & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "EU-wide Distributional Effects of EU Direct Payments Harmonization analyzed with CAPRI," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114624, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Deppermann, A. & Grethe, H. & Offermann, F., 2011. "Effekte einer EU-Agrarmarktliberalisierung auf Betriebsebene: Simulationen anhand eines europäischen Agrarsektormodells und eines Angebotsmodells für den deutschen Agrarsektor," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 46, March.
    3. Maja KOŽAR & Markus KEMPEN & Wolfgang BRITZ & Emil ERJAVEC, 2012. "Flattening and redistribution of the CAP direct payments for the EU27 regions," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 58(10), pages 443-453.
    4. Mittenzwei, Klaus & Britz, Wolfgang & Wieck, Christine, 2014. "Does the “green box” of the European Union distort global markets?," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, April.
    5. Blanco, María & Ramos, Fabien & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Martínez, Pilar & Fumagalli, Davide & Ceglar, Andrej & Fernández, Francisco J., 2017. "Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 52-66.
    6. Waldemar BOJAR & Leszek KNOPIK & Jacek ŻARSKI & Renata KUŚMIEREK-TOMASZEWSKA, 2015. "Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 61(11), pages 502-510.
    7. Britz, Wolfgang & van Ittersum, Martin K. & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M. & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Tools for Integrated Assessment in Agriculture. State of the Art and Challenges," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(2), pages 1-26, August.
    8. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    9. Wąs, Adam & Zawalińska, Katarzyna & Britz, Wolfgang, 2014. "Impact Of “Greening” The Common Agricultural Policy On Sustainability Of European Agriculture: From Perspective Of The Baltic Sea Countries," Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland, vol. 34(4), December.
    10. Gocht, Alexander & Britz, Wolfgang, 2011. "EU-wide farm type supply models in CAPRI--How to consistently disaggregate sector models into farm type models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 146-167, January.
    11. Himics, Mihaly & Britz, Wolfgang, 2013. "Trade Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements Under Tariff Rate Quota Regimes," 135th Seminar, August 28-30, 2013, Belgrade, Serbia 160383, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Martin Henseler & Ruth Delzeit & Marcel Adenäuer & Sarah Baum & Peter Kreins, 2020. "Nitrogen Tax and Set-Aside as Greenhouse Gas Abatement Policies Under Global Change Scenarios: A Case Study for Germany," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(2), pages 299-329, July.
    13. Heckelei, Thomas & Britz, Wolfgang & Zhang, Yinan, 2012. "Positive Mathematical Programming Approaches – Recent Developments in Literature and Applied Modelling," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-16, April.
    14. Britz, Wolfgang & Delzeit, Ruth, 2013. "The impact of German biogas production on European and global agricultural markets, land use and the environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1268-1275.
    15. María Blanco & Benjamin Van Doorslaer & Wolfgang Britz & Heinz-Peter Witzke, 2012. "Exploring the feasibility of integrating water issues into the CAPRI model," JRC Research Reports JRC77058, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Henseler, Martin & Dechow, Rene, 2014. "Simulation of regional nitrous oxide emissions from German agricultural mineral soils: A linkage between an agro-economic model and an empirical emission model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 70-82.
    17. Ruth Delzeit & Roberto Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel , 2020. "Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls," Post-Print hal-03128285, HAL.
    18. Gocht, Alexander & Britz, Wolfgang, 2010. "Eu-Wide Farm Types Supply In Capri - How To Consistently Disaggregate Sector Models Into Farm Type Model," 50th Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93960, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    19. Mittenzwei, Klaus & Britz, Wolfgang & Wieck, Christine, 2012. "Studying the effects of domestic support provisions on global agricultural trade: WTO and OECD policy indicators in the CAPRI model," Conference papers 332212, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Blanco, Maria & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Britz, Wolfgang, 2012. "Assessing agriculture-water relationships: a Pan-European multidimensional modelling approach," 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy 126031, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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