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Automated model linkages: the example of CAPRI

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  • Britz, Wolfgang

Abstract

Increasing demand for policy impact assessment regarding social, economic and environmental aspects asks for combined application of different models and tools. The paper discusses concepts and challenges in linking models, taking CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) model as an example. CAPRI combines different economic models, spatial downscaling and interfaces to bio-physical components. 250 non-linear regional programming models with econometrically estimated costs functions cover the EU-27, Norway and Western Balkans. They are consistently linked to a spatial globally closed trade model, covering 60 countries / country blocks and 50 primary and secondary agricultural products. The link is based on sequential calibration: the market models prices drive the programming models whereas its supply and feed demand curves are calibrated to the programming models’ results, iteratively repeated to convergence. CAPRI integrates projection results from other model systems in the baseline generation and calibrates the supply models to econometric estimations or the supply response from other models as in SEAMLESS. The spatial down-scaling component breaks down the regional EU-27 results regarding cropping shares, crop yields, animal stocking densities and fertilizer application rates to about 140 000 1x1 km pixel cluster and links these results to a statistical meta model of the bio-physical model DNDC.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97707
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics in its journal German Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 57 (2008)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:97707

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Related research

Keywords: model linkage; linking economic and environmental models; policy impact assessment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

References

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  1. Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddi, 2006. "FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 7319, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Blanco, Maria & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Britz, Wolfgang, 2012. "Assessing agriculture-water relationships: a Pan-European multidimensional modelling approach," 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy 126031, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Deppermann, Andre & Grethe, Harald & Offermann, Frank, 2010. "Effekte Einer Eu-Agrarmarktliberalisierung Auf Betriebsebene: Simulationen Anhand Eines Europäischen Agrarsektormodells Und Eines Angebotsmodells Für Den Deutschen Agrarsektor," 50st Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93958, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  3. Britz, Wolfgang & Delzeit, Ruth, 2013. "The impact of German biogas production on European and global agricultural markets, land use and the environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1268-1275.
  4. Gocht, Alexander & Britz, Wolfgang, 2010. "Eu-Wide Farm Types Supply In Capri - How To Consistently Disaggregate Sector Models Into Farm Type Model," 50st Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93960, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  5. Himics, Mihaly & Britz, Wolfgang, 2013. "Trade Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements Under Tariff Rate Quota Regimes," 135th Seminar, August 28-30, 2013, Belgrade, Serbia 160383, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Britz, Wolfgang & van Ittersum, Martin K. & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M. & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Tools for Integrated Assessment in Agriculture. State of the Art and Challenges," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 2, August.
  7. Gocht, Alexander & Britz, Wolfgang & Ciaian, Pavel & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "EU-wide Distributional Effects of EU Direct Payments Harmonization analyzed with CAPRI," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114624, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  8. Heckelei, Thomas & Britz, Wolfgang & Zhang, Yinan, 2012. "Positive Mathematical Programming Approaches – Recent Developments in Literature and Applied Modelling," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 1, April.
  9. Henseler, Martin & Dechow, Rene, 2014. "Simulation of regional nitrous oxide emissions from German agricultural mineral soils: A linkage between an agro-economic model and an empirical emission model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 70-82.

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