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Modelling Long-Term Commodities: The Development Of A Simulation Model For The South African Wine Industry Within A Partial Equilibrium Framework

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  • Cutts, Michela
  • Reynolds, Sanri
  • Meyer, Ferdinand H.
  • Vink, Nick

Abstract

Econometric demand and supply models of agricultural commodities and crops have been around for a long time with extensive research and adaptations being made in the grain and livestock sectors. This much attention has, however, not been afforded to long term commodities. This paper presents a partial equilibrium framework for modelling long term commodities using the South African wine industry as an example. The model structure and important assumptions are presented, after which the usefulness of the model is tested in the form of baseline projections and the analysis of a typical “what if” question. The wine model presented in this paper is housed and maintained in the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) at the Department of Agriculture, Western Cape and the Universities of Pretoria and Stellenbosch.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37324
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Association of Wine Economists in its series Working Papers with number 37324.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aawewp:37324

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Web page: http://www.wine-economics.org
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Related research

Keywords: wine market; South Africa; partial equilibrium model; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis;

References

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  1. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kaus, Phillip J. & Fang, Cheng & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Womack, Abner W. & Young, Robert E, 2000. "FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32045, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  2. Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Westhoff, Patrick C. & Binfield, Julian C.R. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2006. "Model closure and price formation under switching grain market regimes in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 45(4), December.
  3. Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen P. & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Edward & Woma, 2006. "FAPRI 2006 U.S. And World Agricultural Outlook," Staff General Research Papers 12597, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddi, 2006. "FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 7319, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  4. Lariviere, Eric & Larue, Bruno & Chalfant, Jim, 2000. "Modeling the demand for alcoholic beverages and advertising specifications," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 22(2), March.
  5. Lariviere, Eric & Larue, Bruno & Chalfant, Jim, 2000. "Modeling the demand for alcoholic beverages and advertising specifications," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 147-162, March.
  6. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & de Cara, Stephane & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fang, Cheng & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Isik, Murat & Matthey, Holger & Saak, Alexander E. , 2002. "FAPRI 2002 World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32051, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  7. repec:ias:cpaper:00-fsr2 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Strauss, P.G. & Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2008. "Facilitating decision-making in agriculture by using a system of models," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(3), September.

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