Model closure and price formation under switching grain market regimes in South Africa
AbstractThis paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce more reliable projections of the evolution of the sector under alternative shocks.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA) in its journal Agrekon.
Volume (Year): 45 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Crop Production/Industries; Marketing;
Other versions of this item:
- Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Westhoff, Patrick C. & Binfield, Julian C.R. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2006. "Model Closure and Price Formation Under Switching Grain Market Regimes in South Africa," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25432, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen P. & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Edward & Woma, 2007.
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- repec:ias:cpaper:00-fsr2 is not listed on IDEAS
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- Gebrehiwet, Yemane & Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2010. "Integrating Agricultural Input Expenditure into a South African Agricultural Sector’s Partial Equilibrium Model," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 97050, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE) & Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).
- Strauss, P.G. & Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2008. "Facilitating decision-making in agriculture by using a system of models," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(3), September.
- Cutts, Michela & Reynolds, Sanri & Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Vink, Nick, 2007. "Modelling Long-Term Commodities: The Development Of A Simulation Model For The South African Wine Industry Within A Partial Equilibrium Framework," Working Papers 37324, American Association of Wine Economists.
- McDonald, Scott & Punt, Cecilia & Rantho, Lillian & van Schoor, Melt, 2008. "Costs and benefits of higher tariffs on wheat imports to South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(1), March.
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