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Model closure and price formation under switching grain market regimes in South Africa

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  • Meyer, Ferdinand H.
  • Westhoff, Patrick C.
  • Binfield, Julian C.R.
  • Kirsten, Johann F.

Abstract

This paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce more reliable projections of the evolution of the sector under alternative shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA) in its journal Agrekon.

Volume (Year): 45 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:10139

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Web page: http://www.aeasa.org.za/
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Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing;

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  1. Barrett, Christopher B., 1999. "The effects of real exchange rate depreciation on stochastic producer prices in low-income agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 215-230, May.
  2. Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddi, 2007. "FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 7296, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  3. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & de Cara, Stephane & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fang, Cheng & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Isik, Murat & Matthey, Holger & Saak, Alexander E. , 2002. "FAPRI 2002 World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32051, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  4. repec:ias:cpaper:00-fsr2 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kaus, Phillip J. & Fang, Cheng & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Womack, Abner W. & Young, Robert E, 2000. "FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32045, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
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Cited by:
  1. Strauss, P.G. & Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2008. "Facilitating decision-making in agriculture by using a system of models," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(3), September.
  2. McDonald, Scott & Punt, Cecilia & Rantho, Lillian & van Schoor, Melt, 2008. "Costs and benefits of higher tariffs on wheat imports to South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(1), March.
  3. Cutts, Michela & Reynolds, Sanri & Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Vink, Nick, 2007. "Modelling Long-Term Commodities: The Development Of A Simulation Model For The South African Wine Industry Within A Partial Equilibrium Framework," Working Papers 37324, American Association of Wine Economists.
  4. Gebrehiwet, Yemane & Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2010. "Integrating Agricultural Input Expenditure into a South African Agricultural Sector’s Partial Equilibrium Model," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 97050, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE);Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).

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