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Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

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  • Jacinto F. Fabiosa
  • John C. Beghin
  • Fengxia Dong
  • JAmani Elobeid
  • Simla Tokgoz
  • Tun-Hsiang Yu

Abstract

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on world agriculture using the multimarket, multicommodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world prices and trade. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil and other countries, and compute shock multipliers for land allocation decisions for important crops and countries. The Brazilian ethanol expansion using sugarcane has fewer consequences on existing arable land allocation than the U.S. ethanol expansion does using corn feedstock.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Wisconsin Press in its journal Land Economics.

Volume (Year): 86 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 687-706

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Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:86:y:2010:iv:1:p:687-706

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References

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  1. Gallagher, Paul W. & Shapouri, Hosein & Price, Jeffrey & Schamel, Guenter & Brubaker, Heather, 2003. "Some long-run effects of growing markets and renewable fuel standards on additives markets and the US ethanol industry," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 585-608, September.
  2. Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovacik, Karen & Matthey, Holger & Saak, Alexander E. & Tokgoz, Simla & Chavez, Eddie C. , 2004. "FAPRI 2004 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32046, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  3. Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid, 2006. "Analysis of the Link between Ethanol, Energy, and Crop Markets, An," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 06-wp435, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  4. Silvia Secchi & Bruce A. Babcock, 2007. "Impact of High Crop Prices on Environmental Quality: A Case of Iowa and the Conservation Reserve Program," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 07-wp447, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  5. Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddi, 2007. "FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 7296, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  6. David Pearce, 2003. "The Social Cost of Carbon and its Policy Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 362-384.
  7. Uwe A. Schneider & Bruce A. McCarl, 2001. "Economic Potential of Biomass-Based Fuels for Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 01-wp280, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  8. Elobeid, Amani & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Hart, Chad E., 2007. "Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, The," Staff General Research Papers 12717, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  9. Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la & Walsh, Marie E. & Shapouri, Hosein & Slinsky, Stephen P., 2003. "The Economic Impacts of Bioenergy Crop Production on U.S. Crop Production," Agricultural Economics Reports 33997, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  10. Amani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz, 2006. "Removal of U.S. Ethanol Domestic and Trade Distortions: Impact on U.S. and Brazilian Ethanol Markets," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 06-wp427, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  11. Popp, Michael P. & Hogan, Robert J., Jr., 2007. "Assessment of two alternative switchgrass harvest and transport methods," Biofuels, Food and Feed Tradeoffs, Biofuels, Food and Feed Tradeoffs Conference, April 12-13, 2007, St, Louis, Missouri 48774, Farm Foundation.
  12. Gallagher, Paul W. & Otto, Daniel & Dikeman, Mike, 2000. "Effects of an Oxygen Requirement for Fuel in Midwest Ethanol Markets and Local Economies," Staff General Research Papers 5244, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  13. Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart & John C. Beghin, 2007. "Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 07-sr101, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  14. English, Burton C. & Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la & Walsh, Marie E. & Hellwinckel, Chad M. & Menard, R. Jamey, 2006. "Economic Competitiveness of Bioenergy Production and Effects on Agriculture of the Southern Region," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(02), August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang, 2010. "The Global Bioenergy Expansion: How Large Are the Food−Fuel Trade-Offs?," Staff General Research Papers 31603, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Okwo, Adaora & Thomas, Valerie M., 2014. "Biomass feedstock contracts: Role of land quality and yield variability in near term feasibility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-80.
  3. Castro, Eduardo Rodrigues de & Teixeira, Erly Cardoso & Valdes, Constanza, 2012. "Sugar Cane Expansion: Does It Contribute To Amazon Deforestation?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 131703, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Brown, Jesslyn F. & Pervez, Md Shahriar, 2014. "Merging remote sensing data and national agricultural statistics to model change in irrigated agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 28-40.
  5. Dumortier, Jerome & Hayes, Dermot J. & Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Dong, Fengxia & Du, Xiaodong & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Mulik, Kranti, 2010. "Modeling The Effects Of Pasture Expansion On Emissions From Land-Use Change," Proceedings Issues, 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart- Hohenheim, Germany 95944, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  6. Thomas Hertel & Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Uris Baldos, 2013. "Competition for land in the global bioeconomy," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 129-138, November.
  7. repec:ags:iaae12:126735 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Jane, Harrigan, 2011. "Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis," CEI Working Paper Series 2011-5, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  9. Sobowale, Folakemi & Dicks, Michael R. & Campiche, Jody L., 2011. "Impact of United States Corn-based Ethanol Production on Land Use," 2011 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2011, Corpus Christi, Texas 98854, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  10. Sobowale, Flakkeh & Dicks, Michael R. & Adam, Brian D. & Campiche, Jody L., 2012. "Impact of United States Corn-Based Ethanol Production on Land Use," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119800, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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