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Elargissement à l'Est et négociations commerciales internationales : quelle marge de manœuvre pour la PAC ?

Author

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  • Chantal Le Mouël

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

Abstract

Dans le prolongement de l'analyse de la Commission européenne préalable à la réforme de la Politique agricole commune (PAC) de l'Agenda 2000, un exercice de simulation propose ici deux dimensions supplémentaires : l'adhésion des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale à l'Union européenne d'une part, deux contextes d'environnement économique très contrastés d'autre part. Les résultats suggèrent que pour respecter ses engagements internationaux en matière d'exportations subventionnées en volume, dans le cadre d'un élargissement, l'Union européenne devra engager de nouveaux ajustements de la PAC à l'horizon 2010. Ces ajustements seraient toutefois d'ampleur variable selon la nature favorable ou moins favorable du contexte économique retenu dans la simulation. Selon ces simulations, qui n'ont aucun caractère prévisionnel, la PAC réformée en 1992, appliquée dans une Union européenne élargie aux pays d'Europe centrale et orientale, deviendrait incompatible avec les engagements internationaux à l'exportation de l'Union si on se place dans un contexte de rattrapage rapide de la production agricole de ces pays et de conjoncture défavorable des marchés mondiaux agricoles. L'Union élargie enregistrerait alors des dépassements importants de ses engagements à l'exportation en volume pour la quasi-totalité des produits, et les ajustements nécessaires de la PAC seraient substantiels. En revanche, ces ajustements pourraient rester limités dans la perspective d'un rattrapage lent de la production agricole des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale, associé à une conjoncture favorable des marchés mondiaux agricoles.

Suggested Citation

  • Chantal Le Mouël, 1999. "Elargissement à l'Est et négociations commerciales internationales : quelle marge de manœuvre pour la PAC ?," Post-Print hal-02364348, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02364348
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    References listed on IDEAS

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