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Effekte einer EU-Agrarmarktliberalisierung auf Betriebsebene: Simulationen anhand eines europäischen Agrarsektormodells und eines Angebotsmodells für den deutschen Agrarsektor

Author

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  • Deppermann, A.
  • Grethe, H.
  • Offermann, F.

Abstract

Analysen der Politikfolgeabschätzung stoßen häufig auf großes politisches und öffentliches Interesse und sind zugleich eine wissenschaftliche Herausforderung. Der Einsatz einzelner Modelle zur Politikfolgenabschätzung stößt oft dann an seine Grenzen, wenn wechselseitige Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher Aggregationsebenen Gegenstand der Betrachtung sind. In diesem Beitrag entwickeln wir eine konsistente Schnittstelle zwischen dem europäischen Agrarsektormodell ESIM (European Simulation Model) und dem Angebotsmodell für den deutschen Agrarsektor FARMIS (Farm Modelling Information System). Die Kopplung wird durch einen Iterationsprozess vorgenommen, der konsistente Ergebnisse der beiden Modelle sicherstellt. Vorausgehend wird eine detaillierte Analyse der unabhängig voneinander erzeugten Modellergebnisse durchgeführt. Ziel dabei ist es, einen möglichst hohen Grad an Analogie in den Modellreaktionen zu erreichen, gleichzeitig Unterschiede zu reflektieren und diese, wenn möglich, anzugleichen. Im Vergleich zu einem gemeinsamen Referenzszenario werden verschiedene Liberalisierungsszenarien insbesondere bezüglich der Auswirkungen auf die Einkommensverteilung deutscher Landwirte ausgewertet. In Bezug auf die Ergebnisse der gemeinsamen Szenarien kann geschlussfolgert werden, dass der Iterationsprozess nicht für alle Produkte von gleicher Bedeutung ist. Rückkopplungen ergeben sich in der Hauptsache für nicht handelbare Produkte und solche Produkte, für die der analysierte Mitgliedstaat ein großes Land ist und Mengenänderungen folglich Preisänderungen nach sich ziehen.
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Suggested Citation

  • Deppermann, A. & Grethe, H. & Offermann, F., 2011. "Effekte einer EU-Agrarmarktliberalisierung auf Betriebsebene: Simulationen anhand eines europäischen Agrarsektormodells und eines Angebotsmodells für den deutschen Agrarsektor," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 46, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewipr:262560
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.262560
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