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Why does the Euro fail? The DCCA approach

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  • Ferreira, Paulo
  • Dionísio, Andreia
  • Zebende, G.F.

Abstract

The present crisis in the Euro is one of the most serious crises reported in history. The fact that different countries that adopted the Euro have different conditions to support asymmetric shocks in their economies could explain some of the consequences currently affecting the Eurozone. In this paper we apply detrended cross-correlation analysis and its cross correlation coefficient to evaluate the degree of financial integration of the first set of countries to adopt the common currency. Since time series used in these studies are known to be non-stationary, DCCA is suited to study it. It is the first time this methodology has been applied to study financial integration. We conclude that the degree of financial integration is unequal in several countries using the common currency. The fact that countries like Greece, Ireland or Portugal are the ones facing most problems in verification of the parity used in this paper could help to explain the present instability in the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Zebende, G.F., 2016. "Why does the Euro fail? The DCCA approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 543-554.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:443:y:2016:i:c:p:543-554
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.10.013
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    9. Polanco-Martínez, J.M. & Fernández-Macho, J. & Neumann, M.B. & Faria, S.H., 2018. "A pre-crisis vs. crisis analysis of peripheral EU stock markets by means of wavelet transform and a nonlinear causality test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1211-1227.
    10. Ferreira, Paulo & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Uncovered interest rate parity through the lens of fractal methods: Evidence from the European Union," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 553(C).
    11. Paulo Ferreira, 2017. "Portuguese and Brazilian stock market integration: a non-linear and detrended approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(1), pages 49-63, April.
    12. Guedes, E.F. & Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Zebende, G.F., 2019. "An econophysics approach to study the effect of BREXIT referendum on European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1175-1182.
    13. Mirdala, Rajmund & Ruščáková, Anna, 2015. "On Origins and Implications of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 68859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Guedes, E.F. & Brito, A.A. & Oliveira Filho, F.M. & Fernandez, B.F. & de Castro, A.P.N. & da Silva Filho, A.M. & Zebende, G.F., 2018. "Statistical test for ΔρDCCA cross-correlation coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 501(C), pages 134-140.
    15. Guedes, E. & Dionísio, A. & Ferreira, P.J. & Zebende, G.F., 2017. "DCCA cross-correlation in blue-chips companies: A view of the 2008 financial crisis in the Eurozone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 38-47.
    16. da Silva Filho, A.M. & Zebende, G.F. & de Castro, A.P.N. & Guedes, E.F., 2021. "Statistical test for Multiple Detrended Cross-Correlation Coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 562(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial integration; Long-range correlation; Detrended cross-correlation analysis; Correlation coefficient;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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