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Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets

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  • Xiaodong Du and Lihong Lu McPhail

Abstract

Motivated by strong comovement and increasing volatility of energy and agricultural prices, we examine dynamic evolutions of ethanol, gasoline, and corn prices over the period of March 2005-March 2011. A structural change is found around March 2008 in the pairwise dynamic correlations between the prices in a multivariate GARCH model. A structural VAR (SVAR) model is then estimated on two subsamples, one before and one after the identified change point. Using the novel method of identification through heteroscedasticity, we exploit the time-varying price volatilities to fully identify the SVAR model. In the more recent period, ethanol, gasoline, and corn prices are found to be more closely linked with a strengthened corn-ethanol relation, which can be largely explained by the new developments of the biofuel industry and related policy instruments. Variance decomposition shows that for each market a significant and relatively large share of the price variation could be explained by the price changes in the other two markets. The results are robust to the inclusion of seasonal dummies and various representative macroeconomic and financial indicators.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): Volume 33 (2012)
Issue (Month): Number 2 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:33-2-08

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Cited by:
  1. McPhail, Lihong Lu & Du, Xiaodong & Muhammad, Andrew, 2012. "Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: The Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(03), August.
  2. Valentina G. Bruno & Bahattin Buyuksahin & Michel A. Robe, 2013. "The Financialization of Food?," Working Papers 13-39, Bank of Canada.
  3. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
  4. Brenda López Cabrera, & Franziska Schulz,, 2013. "Volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-042, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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