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Rules of Thumb versus Dynamic Programming

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Author Info
Martin Lettau
Harald Uhlig

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Abstract

This paper studies decisionmaking with rules of thumb in the context of dynamic decision problems and compares it to dynamic programming. A rule is a fixed mapping from a subset of states into actions. Rules are compared by averaging over past experiences. This can lead to favoring rules which are only applicable in good states. Correcting this good state bias requires solving the dynamic program. The authors provide a general framework and characterize the asymptotic properties. They apply it to provide a candidate explanation for the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 89 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 148-174
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:89:y:1999:i:1:p:148-174

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Discussion Papers 96-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  3. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hey, John D & Dardanoni, Valentino, 1987. "Optimal Consumption under Uncertainty: An Experimental Investigation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(390), pages 105-16, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Binmore, K. & Samuelson, L., 1990. "Evolutionary Stability In Repeated Games Played By Finite Automata," Working papers 90-29, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
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  6. Day, Richard H & Morley, Samuel A & Smith, Kenneth R, 1974. "Myopic Optimizing and Rules of Thumb in a Micro-Model of Industrial Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(1), pages 11-23, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ellison, Glenn & Fudenberg, Drew, 1993. "Rules of Thumb for Social Learning," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 612-43, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Working Papers 1450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kahneman, Daniel & Wakker, Peter P & Sarin, Rakesh, 1997. "Back to Bentham? Explorations of Experienced Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 375-405, May.
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  11. Arthur, W Brian, 1993. "On Designing Economic Agents That Behave Like Human Agents," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
  12. Rosenthal, Robert W., 1993. "Rules of thumb in games," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-13, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Binmore, Kenneth G. & Samuelson, Larry, 1992. "Evolutionary stability in repeated games played by finite automata," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 278-305, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. R. Glenn Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1994. "The Importance of Precautionary Motives in Explaining Individual and Aggregate Saving," NBER Working Papers 4516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Berk, Jonathan B & Hughson, Eric & Vandezande, Kirk, 1996. "The Price Is Right, but Are the Bids? An Investigation of Rational Decision Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 954-70, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Lusardi, Annamaria, 1996. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption: Evidence from Two Panel Data Sets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 81-90, January.
  19. Krusell, Per & Smith, Anthony Jr., 1996. "Rules of thumb in macroeconomic equilibrium A quantitative analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 527-558, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1989. "On Money as a Medium of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 927-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Stephen Johnson & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & William Samuelson, 1987. "Can People Compute? An Experimental Test of the Life Cycle Consumption Model," NBER Working Papers 2183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1990. "Equilibrium Modeling of Asset Prices: Rationality versus Rules of Thumb," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 115-25, January.
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  24. Moghadam, Reza & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1994. "Are Wages Forward Looking?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 403-24, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Marimon, Ramon & McGrattan, Ellen & Sargent, Thomas J., 1990. "Money as a medium of exchange in an economy with artificially intelligent agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 329-373, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Borgers, Tilman, 1996. "On the Relevance of Learning and Evolution to Economic Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1374-85, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Axel Borsch-Supan & Lothar Essig, 2003. "Household Saving in Germany: Results of the first SAVE study," NBER Working Papers 9902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 1999. "Economic Growth And Endogenous Fiscal Policy: In Search Of A Data Consistent General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 1999_18, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jan 1998. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Martin Shubik & Nicolaas J. Vriend, 1999. "A Behavioral Approach to a Strategic Market Game," Research in Economics 99-01-003e, Santa Fe Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Schunk, Daniel, 2005. "Search behaviour with reference point preferences:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-12, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  5. Juan D. Montoro-Pons, 2000. "Collective Action, Free Riding And Evolution," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 279, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Daniel Houser & Joachim Winter, 2002. "How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence From A Laboratory Experiment," MEA discussion paper series 02005, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Houser, Daniel & Winter, Joachim, 2000. "Time preference and decision rules in a price search experiment," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-34, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jim Malley & Hassan Molana, 2002. "The Life-Cycle-Permanent-Income Model: A Reinterpretation and Supporting Evidence," Working Papers 2002_17, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  9. Rodepeter, Ralf & Winter, Joachim, 1999. "Rules of thumb in life-cycle savings models," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-81, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Daniel Houser & Michael Keane & Kevin McCabe, 2002. "Behavior in a dynamic decision problem: An analysis of experimental evidence using a bayesian type classification algorithm," Experimental 0211001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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