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Forecasting oil price movements: Exploiting the information in the futures market

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Isabel Figuerola‐Ferretti & Alejandro Rodríguez & Eduardo Schwartz, 2021. "Oil price analysts' forecasts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1351-1374, September.
  2. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2020. "Forecasting commodity prices out-of-sample: Can technical indicators help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 666-683.
  3. Pedro Moreno & Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti & Antonio Muñoz, 2024. "Forecasting Oil Prices with Non-Linear Dynamic Regression Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-29, May.
  4. Arroyo Marioli,Francisco & Khadan,Jeetendra & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Yamazaki,Takefumi, 2023. "Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices : Literature Review and a Model Suite," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10611, The World Bank.
  5. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil under economic and statistical constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-608.
  6. Wen, Chufu & Zhu, Haoyang & Dai, Zhifeng, 2023. "Forecasting commodity prices returns: The role of partial least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  7. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2022. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A robust weighted least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  8. repec:aen:journl:ej34-4-05 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Nicholas Apergis, 2023. "Forecasting energy prices: Quantile‐based risk models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 17-33, January.
  10. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, May.
  11. Di Zhu & Yinghong Wang & Fenglin Zhang, 2022. "Energy Price Prediction Integrated with Singular Spectrum Analysis and Long Short-Term Memory Network against the Background of Carbon Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-20, October.
  12. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2019. "Futures-based forecasts: How useful are they for oil price volatility forecasting?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 639-649.
  13. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
  14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2014. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 78-97, February.
  15. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009. "Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04140866, HAL.
  16. Ziliang Yu & Jian Yang & Robert I. Webb, 2023. "Price discovery in China's crude oil futures markets: An emerging Asian benchmark?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 297-324, March.
  17. Clostermann, Jörg & Keis, Nikolaus & Seitz, Franz, 2010. "Short-term oil models before and during the financial market crisis," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 18, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
  18. Kertlly de Medeiros, Rennan & da Nóbrega Besarria, Cássio & Pitta de Jesus, Diego & Phillipe de Albuquerquemello, Vinicius, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices: New approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
  19. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Terrorist attacks and oil prices: Hypothesis and empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  20. Mustanen, Dmitri & Maaitah, Ahmad & Mishra, Tapas & Parhi, Mamata, 2022. "The power of investors’ optimism and pessimism in oil market forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  21. Naser, Hanan, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A data rich model using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-87.
  22. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
  23. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil prices," MPRA Paper 77531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Hao, Xianfeng & Zhao, Yuyang & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using robust regression models with regularization constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  25. Ramos & Pablo Negri & Martín Breitkopf & María Laura Ojeda, 2021. "From International to Regional Commodity Price Pass-through Using Self-Driven Recurrent Networks," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4513, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
  26. Bekiroglu, Korkut & Duru, Okan & Gulay, Emrah & Su, Rong & Lagoa, Constantino, 2018. "Predictive analytics of crude oil prices by utilizing the intelligent model search engine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2387-2397.
  27. Rubaszek Michal & Karolak Zuzanna & Kwas Marek & Uddin Gazi Salah, 2020. "The role of the threshold effect for the dynamics of futures and spot prices of energy commodities," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-20, December.
  28. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2018. "Forecasting oil prices: High-frequency financial data are indeed useful," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 388-402.
  29. You‐How Go & Wee‐Yeap Lau, 2023. "What do we know about informational efficiency? Three puzzles and the new direction forward," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1489-1525, September.
  30. Lin, Ling & Jiang, Yong & Xiao, Helu & Zhou, Zhongbao, 2020. "Crude oil price forecasting based on a novel hybrid long memory GARCH-M and wavelet analysis model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 543(C).
  31. Paraschiv, Florentina & Mudry, Pierre-Antoine & Andries, Alin Marius, 2015. "Stress-testing for portfolios of commodity futures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 9-18.
  32. Jiaying Peng & Zhenghui Li & Benjamin M. Drakeford, 2020. "Dynamic Characteristics of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation—From the Perspective of Crude Oil Price Influence Mechanism," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
  33. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2011. "What is driving oil futures prices? Fundamentals versus speculation," Working Paper Series 1371, European Central Bank.
  34. Michael T. Chng, 2010. "Comparing Different Economic Linkages Among Commodity Futures," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9‐10), pages 1348-1389, November.
  35. E. Mamatzakis, 2014. "Revealing asymmetries in the loss function of WTI oil futures market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 411-426, September.
  36. Liu, Jing & Ma, Feng & Tang, Yingkai & Zhang, Yaojie, 2019. "Geopolitical risk and oil volatility: A new insight," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  37. repec:aen:journl:ej39-5-filis is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Dbouk, Wassim & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2018. "Predicting daily oil prices: Linear and non-linear models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 149-165.
  39. Arash Sioofy Khoojine & Mahboubeh Shadabfar & Yousef Edrisi Tabriz, 2022. "A Mutual Information-Based Network Autoregressive Model for Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Open-High-Low-Close Prices," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-20, September.
  40. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Are VIX futures prices predictable? An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 543-560, April.
  41. Michail Filippidis & George Filis & Georgios Magkonis, 2024. "Evaluating Oil Price Forecasts: A Meta-analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(2), pages 71-89, March.
  42. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Valencia, Consuelo, 2021. "How good are analyst forecasts of oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  43. Cheng, Fangzheng & Li, Tian & Wei, Yi-ming & Fan, Tijun, 2019. "The VEC-NAR model for short-term forecasting of oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 656-667.
  44. Marek Kwas & Michał Rubaszek, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Looking for a Benchmark," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-13, June.
  45. Nademi, Arash & Nademi, Younes, 2018. "Forecasting crude oil prices by a semiparametric Markov switching model: OPEC, WTI, and Brent cases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 757-766.
  46. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Predictability of crude oil prices: An investor perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 193-205.
  47. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  48. Ai Han & Yanan He & Yongmiao Hong & Shouyang Wang, 2013. "Forecasting Interval-valued Crude Oil Prices via Autoregressive Conditional Interval Models," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
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