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Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models

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  1. Simon Schnürch & Torsten Kleinow & Ralf Korn, 2021. "Clustering-Based Extensions of the Common Age Effect Multi-Population Mortality Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-32, March.
  2. Hong Li & Yang Lu & Pintao Lyu, 2021. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting for Less Developed Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-21, August.
  3. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2017. "Coherent forecasts of mortality with compositional data analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(17), pages 527-566.
  4. Emanuele Aliverti & Stefano Mazzuco & Bruno Scarpa, 2022. "Dynamic modelling of mortality via mixtures of skewed distribution functions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(3), pages 1030-1048, July.
  5. Søren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Jim Oeppen & Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen, 2019. "Forecasting Causes of Death using Compositional Data Analysis: the Case of Cancer Deaths," CREATES Research Papers 2019-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  6. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Søren Kjærgaard & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2019. "The impact of the choice of life table statistics when forecasting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(43), pages 1235-1268.
  7. Qian Lu & Katja Hanewald & Xiaojun Wang, 2021. "Subnational Mortality Modelling: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model with Common Factors," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-21, November.
  8. Snorre Jallbjørn & Søren Fiig Jarner, 2022. "Sex Differential Dynamics in Coherent Mortality Models," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-26, September.
  9. Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
  10. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
  11. Bernard Baffour & James Raymer, 2019. "Estimating multiregional survivorship probabilities for sparse data: An application to immigrant populations in Australia, 1981–2011," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(18), pages 463-502.
  12. David Blake & Marco Morales & Enrico Biffis & Yijia Lin & Andreas Milidonis, 2017. "Special Edition: Longevity 10 – The Tenth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(S1), pages 515-532, April.
  13. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven, 2017. "Grouped multivariate and functional time series forecasting:An application to annuity pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 166-179.
  14. Zhang, Xuanming & Huang, Fei & Hui, Francis K.C. & Haberman, Steven, 2023. "Cause-of-death mortality forecasting using adaptive penalized tensor decompositions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 193-213.
  15. Hong Li & Yanlin Shi, 2021. "Mortality Forecasting with an Age-Coherent Sparse VAR Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, February.
  16. Adrian E. Raftery & Nevena Lalic & Patrick Gerland, 2014. "Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(27), pages 795-822.
  17. Feng, Lingbing & Shi, Yanlin & Chang, Le, 2021. "Forecasting mortality with a hyperbolic spatial temporal VAR model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 255-273.
  18. FLICI, Farid, 2016. "The future of longevity and life annuities pricing in Algeria: comparison of mortality models," SocArXiv 2tdgm, Center for Open Science.
  19. Phillip A. Jang & David S. Matteson, 2023. "Spatial correlation in weather forecast accuracy: a functional time series approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 1215-1229, September.
  20. Li, Jackie & Haberman, Steven, 2015. "On the effectiveness of natural hedging for insurance companies and pension plans," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 286-297.
  21. Deschermeier Philipp, 2014. "Prognose der Anzahl der Erwerbspersonen," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 58(1), pages 50-65, October.
  22. Syazreen Shair & Sachi Purcal & Nick Parr, 2017. "Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, March.
  23. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
  24. Rebecca F. Gleditsch & Adrian F. Rogne & Astri Syse & Michael Thomas, 2021. "The accuracy of Statistics Norway’s national population projections," Discussion Papers 948, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  25. Camerer, Colin F. & Ho, Teck-Hua, 2015. "Behavioral Game Theory Experiments and Modeling," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications,, Elsevier.
  26. Yuan Gao & Han Lin Shang, 2017. "Multivariate Functional Time Series Forecasting: Application to Age-Specific Mortality Rates," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, March.
  27. Yahia Salhi & Pierre-Emmanuel Thérond & Julien Tomas, 2016. "A Credibility Approach of the Makeham Mortality Law," Post-Print hal-01232683, HAL.
  28. Li, Hong & Lu, Yang, 2017. "Coherent Forecasting Of Mortality Rates: A Sparse Vector-Autoregression Approach," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 563-600, May.
  29. Li, Han & O’Hare, Colin, 2017. "Semi-parametric extensions of the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model: A one-dimensional kernel smoothing approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 166-176.
  30. Lenny Stoeldraijer & Coen van Duin & Leo van Wissen & Fanny Janssen, 2013. "Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(13), pages 323-354.
  31. Ahmadi, Seyed Saeed & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2014. "Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models: A modified time-transformation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 194-221.
  32. Hunt, Andrew & Blake, David, 2018. "Identifiability, cointegration and the gravity model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 360-368.
  33. de Jong, Piet & Tickle, Leonie & Xu, Jianhui, 2016. "Coherent modeling of male and female mortality using Lee–Carter in a complex number framework," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 130-137.
  34. Jackie Li & Leonie Tickle & Nick Parr, 2016. "A multi-population evaluation of the Poisson common factor model for projecting mortality jointly for both sexes," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 333-360, December.
  35. Søren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher & Jim Oeppen & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb, 2019. "Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2019-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  36. Flici, Farid, 2020. "Population projections using R, including graphical dynamic presentations," MPRA Paper 119599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2022. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality," SocArXiv 8u34d, Center for Open Science.
  38. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2023. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1033-1049.
  39. Tim J. Boonen & Hong Li, 2017. "Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(5), pages 1921-1946, October.
  40. Wang, Pengjie & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Vahid, Farshid, 2023. "Multi-population mortality projection: The augmented common factor model with structural breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 450-469.
  41. Flici, Farrid, 2016. "Projection des taux de mortalité par âges pour la population algérienne [Forecasting The Age Specific Mortality Rates For The Algerian Population]," MPRA Paper 98784, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2016.
  42. Wang, Hong & Koo, Bonsoo & O'Hare, Colin, 2016. "Retirement planning in the light of changing demographics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 749-763.
  43. Shang, Han Lin & Smith, Peter W.F. & Bijak, Jakub & Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz, 2016. "A multilevel functional data method for forecasting population, with an application to the United Kingdom," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 629-649.
  44. Francesco Billari & Rebecca Graziani & Eugenio Melilli, 2014. "Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1933-1954, October.
  45. Rob J Hyndman & Yijun Zeng & Han Lin Shang, 2020. "Forecasting the Old-Age Dependency Ratio to Determine a Sustainable Pension Age," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 31/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  46. Francesca Perla & Salvatore Scognamiglio, 2023. "Locally-coherent multi-population mortality modelling via neural networks," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 46(1), pages 157-176, June.
  47. Kenneth Wong & Jackie Li & Sixian Tang, 2020. "A modified common factor model for modelling mortality jointly for both sexes," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 181-212, June.
  48. Rizzi, Silvia & Kjærgaard, Søren & Bergeron Boucher, Marie-Pier & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune & Vaupel, James W., 2021. "Killing off cohorts: Forecasting mortality of non-extinct cohorts with the penalized composite link model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 95-104.
  49. Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman, 2016. "Grouped functional time series forecasting: An application to age-specific mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  50. Gleditsch Rebecca Folkman & Syse Astri & Thomas Michael J., 2021. "Fertility Projections in a European Context: A Survey of Current Practices among Statistical Agencies," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(3), pages 547-568, September.
  51. Vanella, Patrizio & Deschermeier, Philipp, 2018. "A Probabilistic Cohort-Component Model for Population Forecasting - The Case of Germany," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-638, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  52. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-01232683 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Nhan Huynh & Mike Ludkovski, 2021. "Joint Models for Cause-of-Death Mortality in Multiple Populations," Papers 2111.06631, arXiv.org.
  54. Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier & Vázquez-Castillo, Paola & Missov, Trifon, 2022. "A modal age at death approach to forecasting mortality," SocArXiv 5zr2k, Center for Open Science.
  55. Jarner, Søren F. & Jallbjørn, Snorre, 2020. "Pitfalls and merits of cointegration-based mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 80-93.
  56. Cuixia Liu & Yanlin Shi, 2023. "Extensions of the Lee–Carter model to project the data‐driven rotation of age‐specific mortality decline and forecast coherent mortality rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 813-834, July.
  57. Hong Li & Johnny Siu-Hang Li, 2017. "Optimizing the Lee-Carter Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(3), pages 1073-1095, June.
  58. Vanella, Patrizio & Deschermeier, Philipp, 2017. "Ein stochastisches Prognosemodell internationaler Migration in Deutschland," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-605, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  59. Katrien Antonio & Anastasios Bardoutsos & Wilbert Ouburg, 2015. "Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear models for mortality projections with multiple populations," Working Papers Department of Accountancy, Finance and Insurance (AFI), Leuven 485564, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Accountancy, Finance and Insurance (AFI), Leuven.
  60. Yigang Wei & Zhichao Wang & Huiwen Wang & Yan Li & Zhenyu Jiang, 2019. "Predicting population age structures of China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on compositional data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, April.
  61. Ainhoa-Elena Léger & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "What Can We Learn from the Functional Clustering of Mortality Data? An Application to the Human Mortality Database," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 769-798, November.
  62. Christina Bohk-Ewald & Marcus Ebeling & Roland Rau, 2017. "Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1559-1577, August.
  63. Ricarda Duerst & Jonas Schöley & Christina Bohk-Ewald, 2023. "A validation workflow for mortality forecasting," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-020, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  64. Pascariu, Marius D. & Canudas-Romo, Vladimir & Vaupel, James W., 2018. "The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 339-350.
  65. Hunt, Andrew & Blake, David, 2015. "Modelling longevity bonds: Analysing the Swiss Re Kortis bond," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 12-29.
  66. Li, Hong & Shi, Yanlin, 2021. "Forecasting mortality with international linkages: A global vector-autoregression approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 59-75.
  67. Péter Vékás, 2020. "Rotation of the age pattern of mortality improvements in the European Union," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(3), pages 1031-1048, September.
  68. Li, Hong & Porth, Lysa & Tan, Ken Seng & Zhu, Wenjun, 2021. "Improved index insurance design and yield estimation using a dynamic factor forecasting approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 208-221.
  69. Samuel H. Cox & Yijia Lin & Ruilin Tian & Luis F. Zuluaga, 2013. "Mortality Portfolio Risk Management," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(4), pages 853-890, December.
  70. Tickle Leonie & Booth Heather, 2014. "The Longevity Prospects of Australian Seniors: An Evaluation of Forecast Method and Outcome," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, July.
  71. Sedar Olmez & Akhil Ahmed & Keith Kam & Zhe Feng & Alan Tua, 2023. "Exploring the Dynamics of the Specialty Insurance Market Using a Novel Discrete Event Simulation Framework: a Lloyd's of London Case Study," Papers 2307.05581, arXiv.org.
  72. Farid Flici & Frédéric Planchet, 2019. "Experience Prospective Life-Tables for the Algerian Retirees," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-21, April.
  73. Dorina Lazar & Anuta Buiga & Adela Deaconu, 2016. "Common Stochastic Trends in European Mortality Levels: Testing and Consequences for Modeling Longevity Risk in Insurance," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 152-168, June.
  74. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven & Xu, Ruofan, 2022. "Multi-population modelling and forecasting life-table death counts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 239-253.
  75. Chen, An & Li, Hong & Schultze, Mark, 2022. "Collective longevity swap: A novel longevity risk transfer solution and its economic pricing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 227-249.
  76. Carlo Giovanni Camarda, 2019. "Smooth constrained mortality forecasting," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(38), pages 1091-1130.
  77. Nico Keilman & Dinh Q. Pham & Astri Syse, 2018. "Mortality shifts and mortality compression. The case of Norway, 1900-2060," Discussion Papers 884, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  78. de Jong, Piet & Tickle, Leonie & Xu, Jianhui, 2020. "A more meaningful parameterization of the Lee–Carter model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-8.
  79. FLICI, Farid & SENOUCI, Khadidja & HANNANI, Yasmine, 2017. "Tables de mortalité d’expérience incorporant une échelle de projection : adaptation aux cas des retraités en Algérie [Experience life tables incorporating a projection scale : adaptation to the cas," MPRA Paper 91918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  80. Benjamin Seligman & Gabi Greenberg & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2016. "Convergence in male and female life expectancy: Direction, age pattern, and causes," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(38), pages 1063-1074.
  81. Rachel WINGENBACH & Jong-Min KIM & Hojin JUNG, 2020. "Living Longer in High Longevity Risk," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 47-86, March.
  82. Flici, Farid, 2020. "Muti-Scenarios Population Projection for Algeria using R," MPRA Paper 119600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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