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Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence?

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  1. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Ueckerdt, Falko & Carrara, Samuel & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & Després, Jacques & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Johnson, Nils & Kitous, Alban & Scholz, Yvonne & Sullivan, Patrick & Ludere, 2017. "System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 583-599.
  2. Madsen, Dorte Nørgaard & Hansen, Jan Petter, 2019. "Outlook of solar energy in Europe based on economic growth characteristics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
  3. Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2011. "When starting with the most expensive option makes sense : use and misuse of marginal abatement cost curves," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5803, The World Bank.
  4. Luderer, Gunnar & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Carrara, Samuel & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Johnson, Nils & Mima, Silvana & Arent, Douglas, 2017. "Assessment of wind and solar power in global low-carbon energy scenarios: An introduction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 542-551.
  5. Audoly, Richard & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Guivarch, Céline & Pfeiffer, Alexander, 2018. "Pathways toward zero-carbon electricity required for climate stabilization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 884-901.
  6. Cotterman, Turner & Small, Mitchell J. & Wilson, Stephen & Abdulla, Ahmed & Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle, 2021. "Applying risk tolerance and socio-technical dynamics for more realistic energy transition pathways," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
  7. Luís M. Fazendeiro & Sofia G. Simões, 2021. "Historical Variation of IEA Energy and CO 2 Emission Projections: Implications for Future Energy Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-27, July.
  8. Femke J. M. M. Nijsse & Jean-Francois Mercure & Nadia Ameli & Francesca Larosa & Sumit Kothari & Jamie Rickman & Pim Vercoulen & Hector Pollitt, 2023. "The momentum of the solar energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
  9. Li, Pei-Hao & Keppo, Ilkka & Strachan, Neil, 2018. "Incorporating homeowners' preferences of heating technologies in the UK TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 716-727.
  10. Govorukha, Kristina & Mayer, Philip & Rübbelke, Dirk & Vögele, Stefan, 2020. "Economic disruptions in long-term energy scenarios – Implications for designing energy policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
  11. Ajay Gambhir & Laurent Drouet & David McCollum & Tamaryn Napp & Dan Bernie & Adam Hawkes & Oliver Fricko & Petr Havlik & Keywan Riahi & Valentina Bosetti & Jason Lowe, 2017. "Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, January.
  12. Kriegler, Elmar & Riahi, Keywan & Bauer, Nico & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Petermann, Nils & Bosetti, Valentina & Marcucci, Adriana & Otto, Sander & Paroussos, Leonidas & Rao-Skirbekk, Shilpa & Currás,, 2015. "A short note on integrated assessment modeling approaches: Rejoinder to the review of “Making or breaking climate targets — The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy”," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 273-276.
  13. Eom, Jiyong & Edmonds, Jae & Krey, Volker & Johnson, Nils & Longden, Thomas & Luderer, Gunnar & Riahi, Keywan & Van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2015. "The impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 73-88.
  14. Cotterman, Turner, 2019. "Why Rapid and Deep Decarbonization isn’t Simple: Linking Bottom-up Socio-technical Decision-making Insights with Top-down Macroeconomic Analyses," Conference papers 333088, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  15. Zhang, Shuwei & Bauer, Nico & Yin, Guangzhi & Xie, Xi, 2020. "Technology learning and diffusion at the global and local scales: A modeling exercise in the REMIND model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  16. repec:hal:ciredw:hal-00916328 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Ajay Gambhir & Isabela Butnar & Pei-Hao Li & Pete Smith & Neil Strachan, 2019. "A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, May.
  18. Minwoo Hyun & Aleh Cherp & Jessica Jewell & Yeong Jae Kim & Jiyong Eom, 2021. "Feasibility trade-offs in decarbonisation of power sector with high coal dependence: A case of Korea," Papers 2111.02872, arXiv.org.
  19. Tamaryn Napp & Dan Bernie & Rebecca Thomas & Jason Lowe & Adam Hawkes & Ajay Gambhir, 2017. "Exploring the Feasibility of Low-Carbon Scenarios Using Historical Energy Transitions Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-36, January.
  20. Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stephane & de Gouvello Christophe, 2014. "Long-term mitigation strategies and marginal abatement cost curves : a case study on Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6808, The World Bank.
  21. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
  22. Hanwoong Kim & Haewon McJeon & Dawoon Jung & Hanju Lee & Candelaria Bergero & Jiyong Eom, 2021. "Integrated Assessment Modeling of Korea 2050 Carbon Neutrality Technology Pathways," Papers 2111.01598, arXiv.org.
  23. Cartelle Barros, Juan José & Lara Coira, Manuel & de la Cruz López, María Pilar & del Caño Gochi, Alfredo, 2016. "Probabilistic life-cycle cost analysis for renewable and non-renewable power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 774-787.
  24. Davidsson, Simon & Grandell, Leena & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Höök, Mikael, 2014. "Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 767-776.
  25. Ana Luiza Fontenelle & Erik Nilsson & Ieda Geriberto Hidalgo & Cintia B. Uvo & Drielli Peyerl, 2022. "Temporal Understanding of the Water–Energy Nexus: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
  26. Gregory Nemet & Erin Baker & Bob Barron & Samuel Harms, 2015. "Characterizing the effects of policy instruments on the future costs of carbon capture for coal power plants," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 155-168, November.
  27. Gross, Robert & Hanna, Richard & Gambhir, Ajay & Heptonstall, Philip & Speirs, Jamie, 2018. "How long does innovation and commercialisation in the energy sectors take? Historical case studies of the timescale from invention to widespread commercialisation in energy supply and end use technolo," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 682-699.
  28. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00916328 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Adrien Vogt-Schilb & St�phane Hallegatte & Christophe de Gouvello, 2015. "Marginal abatement cost curves and the quality of emission reductions: a case study on Brazil," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 703-723, November.
  30. Morris, Jennifer F. & Reilly, John M. & Chen, Y.-H. Henry, 2019. "Advanced technologies in energy-economy models for climate change assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 476-490.
  31. Mercure, J.-F. & Pollitt, H. & Chewpreecha, U. & Salas, P. & Foley, A.M. & Holden, P.B. & Edwards, N.R., 2014. "The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 686-700.
  32. Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stéphane, 2014. "Marginal abatement cost curves and the optimal timing of mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 645-653.
  33. Kim, Yeong Jae & Soh, Moonwon & Cho, Seong-Hoon, 2022. "Identifying optimal financial budget distributions for the low-carbon energy transition between emerging and developed countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
  34. Ding, Lili & Zhao, Zhongchao & Wang, Lei, 2022. "Probability density forecasts for natural gas demand in China: Do mixed-frequency dynamic factors matter?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
  35. Cohen, Francois & Pfeiffer, Alexander, 2018. "The Impact of Negative Emissions Technologies and Natural Climate Solutions on Power-Sector Asset Stranding," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-02, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
  36. Kriegler, Elmar & Riahi, Keywan & Bauer, Nico & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Petermann, Nils & Bosetti, Valentina & Marcucci, Adriana & Otto, Sander & Paroussos, Leonidas & Rao, Shilpa & Arroyo Currás, T, 2015. "Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 24-44.
  37. Zimm, Caroline, 2021. "Improving the understanding of electric vehicle technology and policy diffusion across countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 54-66.
  38. Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2016. "Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 182-193.
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