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Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Liangfei Qiu & Yili (Kevin) Hong & Andrew Whinston, 2022. "Special Issue of Production and Operations Management “Social Technologies in Operations”," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(2), pages 868-869, February.
  2. Vincenz Frey & Arnout van de Rijt, 2021. "Social Influence Undermines the Wisdom of the Crowd in Sequential Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4273-4286, July.
  3. Goldstein, Itay & Xiong, Yan & Yang, Liyan, 2025. "Information sharing in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  4. Peeters, Thomas, 2018. "Testing the Wisdom of Crowds in the field: Transfermarkt valuations and international soccer results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 17-29.
  5. Deck, Cary & Jun, Tae In & Razzolini, Laura & Reid, Tavoy, 2024. "Information aggregation with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
  6. Agrawal, Ashwini & Hacamo, Isaac & Hu, Zhongchen, 2021. "Information dispersion across employees and stock returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106491, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Pavel Atanasov & Phillip Rescober & Eric Stone & Samuel A. Swift & Emile Servan-Schreiber & Philip Tetlock & Lyle Ungar & Barbara Mellers, 2017. "Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 691-706, March.
  8. Agrawal, Ashwini & Hacamo, Isaac & Hu, Zhongchen, 2020. "Information dispersion across employees and stock returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118922, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Athos V. C. Carvalho & Douglas Silveira & Regis A. Ely & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2023. "A logarithmic market scoring rule agent-based model to evaluate prediction markets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 1303-1343, September.
  10. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Inefficiencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2016-01, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
  11. Lionel Page & Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "How Much Information Is Incorporated into Financial Asset Prices? Experimental Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4412-4449.
  12. John McCoy & Drazen Prelec, 2024. "A Bayesian Hierarchical Model of Crowd Wisdom Based on Predicting Opinions of Others," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(9), pages 5931-5948, September.
  13. Peeters, R.J.A.P. & Wolk, K.L., 2015. "Forecasting with Colonel Blotto," Research Memorandum 025, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
  14. Ivo Blohm & Christoph Riedl & Johann Füller & Jan Marco Leimeister, 2016. "Rate or Trade? Identifying Winning Ideas in Open Idea Sourcing," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 27-48, March.
  15. Michael Goedde-Menke & Enrico Diecidue & Andreas Jacobs & Thomas Langer, 2026. "Group Discussions Improve Competence Calibration: Making Self-Perceived Competence Valuable When Harnessing the Wisdom of Crowds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 72(7), pages 5823-5842, July.
  16. Jens Witkowski & Rupert Freeman & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan & David M. Pennock & Andreas Krause, 2023. "Incentive-Compatible Forecasting Competitions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1354-1374, March.
  17. Jason Dana & Pavel Atanasov & Philip Tetlock & Barbara Mellers, 2019. "Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just askingâ€," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(2), pages 135-147, March.
  18. Majid Karimi & Stanko Dimitrov, 2018. "On the Road to Making Science of “Art”: Risk Bias in Market Scoring Rules," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 72-89, June.
  19. Ahrash Dianat & Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "Correction to: Improving decisions with market information: an experiment on corporate prediction markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 1074-1074, September.
  20. Boris Maciejovsky & David V. Budescu, 2020. "Too Much Trust in Group Decisions: Uncovering Hidden Profiles by Groups and Markets," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(6), pages 1497-1514, November.
  21. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & Kyle Hampton & Erik O. Kimbrough, 2023. "When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3697-3729, June.
  22. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2022. "Manipulation and (Mis)trust in Prediction Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6716-6732, September.
  23. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Ine!ciencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Working Papers 2016-002, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
  24. Heraud, Florian & Page, Lionel, 2024. "Does the left-digit bias affect prices in financial markets?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 20-29.
  25. Karimi, Majid & Zaerpour, Nima, 2022. "Put your money where your forecast is: Supply chain collaborative forecasting with cost-function-based prediction markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1035-1049.
  26. Niklas Valentin Lehmann, 2023. "Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts," Papers 2312.09081, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
  27. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
  28. Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "When Can Decision Makers Learn from Financial Market Prices?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1523-1552, September.
  29. Ho Cheung Brian Lee & Jan Stallaert & Ming Fan, 2020. "Anomalies in Probability Estimates for Event Forecasting on Prediction Markets," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(9), pages 2077-2095, September.
  30. Brown, Alasdair & Yang, Fuyu, 2019. "The wisdom of large and small crowds: Evidence from repeated natural experiments in sports betting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 288-296.
  31. Hong Luo & Jeffrey Macher & Michael Wahlen, 2021. "Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 6358-6377, October.
  32. Joshua Becker & Abdullah Almaatouq & EmH{o}ke-'Agnes Horv'at, 2020. "Network Structures of Collective Intelligence: The Contingent Benefits of Group Discussion," Papers 2009.07202, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
  33. Hongzhou Chen & Xiaolin Duan & Abdulmotaleb El Saddik & Wei Cai, 2024. "Political Leanings in Web3 Betting: Decoding the Interplay of Political and Profitable Motives," Papers 2407.14844, arXiv.org.
  34. Boleslavsky, Raphael & Kelly, David L. & Taylor, Curtis R., 2017. "Selloffs, bailouts, and feedback: Can asset markets inform policy?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 294-343.
  35. Joachim R. Groeger, 2016. "The Informational Content of the Limit Order Book: An Empirical Study of Prediction Markets," Papers 1609.03471, arXiv.org.
  36. Gorny, Paul M. & Groos, Eva & Strobel, Christina, 2024. "Do Personalized AI Predictions Change Subsequent Decision-Outcomes? The Impact of Human Oversight," MPRA Paper 121065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2018. "Forecasting With Social Media: Evidence From Tweets On Soccer Matches," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1748-1763, July.
  38. Peeters, R.J.A.P. & Wolk, K.L., 2014. "Eliciting and aggregating individual expectations: An experimental study," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
  39. Siemroth, Christoph, 2019. "The informational content of prices when policy makers react to financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 240-274.
  40. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Predicting catastrophe risk: Evidence from catastrophe bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  41. Atanasov, Pavel & Witkowski, Jens & Mellers, Barbara & Tetlock, Philip, 2025. "Crowd prediction systems: Markets, polls, and elite forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 580-595.
  42. Jianjun Gao & Zizhuo Wang & Weiping Wu & Dian Yu, 2025. "Price Interpretability of Prediction Markets: A Convergence Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 73(1), pages 157-177, January.
  43. Xiaoyan Cheng & Ming Yuan, 2026. "Can employee disclosures of future business outlook predict the firm’s cessation as a going concern?," International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 138-155, March.
  44. Jon Atwell & Marlon Twyman II, 2023. "Metawisdom of the Crowd: Experimental Evidence of Crowd Accuracy Through Diverse Choices of Decision Aids," Papers 2308.15451, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
  45. Majid Karimi & Stanko Dimitrov, 2024. "To Subsidize Or Not to Subsidize: A Comparison of Market Scoring Rules and Continuous Double Auctions for Price Discovery," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 801-823, April.
  46. Liangfei Qiu & Subodha Kumar, 2017. "Understanding Voluntary Knowledge Provision and Content Contribution Through a Social-Media-Based Prediction Market: A Field Experiment," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 529-546, September.
  47. Clintin P. Davis-Stober & David V. Budescu & Stephen B. Broomell & Jason Dana, 2015. "The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 130-143.
  48. Spyros Galanis & Sergei Mikhalishchev, 2024. "Information Aggregation with Costly Information Acquisition," Papers 2406.07186, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
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