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Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 205-226.
  2. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01411824, HAL.
  3. Holmes, Mark J. & Iregui, Ana María & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "The effects of FX-interventions on forecasters disagreement: A mixed data sampling view," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  4. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Filipozzi, Fabio & Staehr, Karsten, 2015. "Do foreign exchange forecasters believe in Uncovered Interest Parity?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 92-95.
  5. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Directional analysis of fiscal sustainability: Revisiting Domar's debt sustainability condition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 189-201.
  6. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd?," Discussion Papers 318, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  7. Koske, Isabell & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Exchange rate expectations: The role of person specific forward looking variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 221-223, December.
  8. Jan Christoph Ruelke & Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel, 2011. "Do Professional Forecasters Trust in Taylor-Type Rules? - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Poll," Post-Print hal-00743770, HAL.
  9. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  10. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis, 2012. "Directional forecasting in financial time series using support vector machines: The USD/Euro exchange rate," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 5-2012, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
  11. Miah, Fazlul & Khalifa, Ahmed Ali & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 574-590.
  12. Chortareas, Georgios & Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2012. "Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 209-231.
  13. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2013. "A note on the anti-herding instinct of interest rate forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 665-673, October.
  14. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
  15. F. Pancotto & G. Pignataro & D. Raggi, 2014. "Higher order beliefs and the dynamics of exchange rates," Working Papers wp957, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  16. Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," MPRA Paper 15607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 224-232, June.
  18. Ince, Onur & Molodtsova, Tanya, 2017. "Rationality and forecasting accuracy of exchange rate expectations: Evidence from survey-based forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 131-151.
  19. Ruelke, Jan C. & Frenkel, Michael R. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "Expectations on the yen/dollar exchange rate - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 355-368, September.
  20. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rulke & Georg Stadtmann, 2011. "Do professional economists' forecasts reflect Okun's law? Some evidence for the G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(11), pages 1365-1373.
  21. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2008. "Infation Targeting matters! - Novel evidence from 'ex ante' Taylor rules in emerging markets," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 08-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  22. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  23. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2008. "'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 08-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  24. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. ""Ex-ante" Taylor rules and expectation forming in emerging markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 230-244, June.
  25. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, November.
  26. Hamid Baghestani, 2022. "Mortgage rate predictability and consumer home-buying assessments," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 593-603, July.
  27. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Two currencies, one model? Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 588-596, October.
  28. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2009. "Expectations, Taylor Rules, and Credibility – Evidence from Four Small Open European Economies with Independent Central Banks," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 09-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  29. Francesca Pancotto & Giuseppe Pignataro & Davide Raggi, 2015. "Social Learning and Higher Order Beliefs: A Structural Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics," LEM Papers Series 2015/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  30. Kladívko, Kamil & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Do market participants’ forecasts of financial variables outperform the random-walk benchmark?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
  31. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2017. "Direct Evidence on Sticky Information from the Revision Behavior of Professional Forecasters," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(2), pages 637-653, October.
  32. Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Neumann, Federico, 2020. "Can we beat the Random Walk? The case of survey-based exchange rate forecasts in Chile," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
  33. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141591, HAL.
  34. Kamil Kladívko & Pär Österholm, 2024. "Analysts versus the random walk in financial forecasting: evidence from the Czech National Bank’s Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(17), pages 2077-2088, April.
  35. Chin-Hong Puah & Shirly Siew-Ling Wong & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2013. "Testing rational expectations hypothesis in the manufacturing sector in Malaysia," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 303-316, April.
  36. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2020. "How Did Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect Economic Forecasts?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 206-220, January.
  37. Kiss, Tamás & Kladívko, Kamil & Silfverberg, Oliwer & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Market participants or the random walk – who forecasts better? Evidence from micro-level survey data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  38. Frenkel, Michael & Mauch, Matthias & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2020. "Do forecasters of major exchange rates herd?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 214-221.
  39. Kunze, Frederik & Wegener, Christoph & Bizer, Kilian & Spiwoks, Markus, 2017. "Forecasting European interest rates in times of financial crisis – What insights do we get from international survey forecasts?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 192-205.
  40. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2013. "Do professional forecasters trust in Taylor-type rules? -- Evidence from the Wall Street Journal poll," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 829-838, March.
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