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Forecasting with the term structure: The role of no-arbitrage restrictions

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
  2. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2023. "Does Real‐Time Macroeconomic Information Help to Predict Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2027-2059, December.
  3. Daniela Kubudi & José Valentim Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Presidential Address: How Much “Rationality” Is There in Bond‐Market Risk Premiums?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1611-1654, August.
  5. Tommaso Tornese, 2023. "A Euro Area Term Structure Model with Time Varying Exposures," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23199, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  6. Christoph Berninger & Almond Stöcker & David Rügamer, 2022. "A Bayesian time‐varying autoregressive model for improved short‐term and long‐term prediction," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 181-200, January.
  7. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  8. Feiyan Zhang & Dewen Chen, 2019. "The short-term spillover effects of the Fed on Chinese financial market The overshooting model or the portfolio balance theory," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(5), pages 1-5.
  9. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel, 2014. "Smooth Dynamic Factor Analysis With Application To The Us Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 65-90, January.
  10. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
  11. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
  12. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
  13. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
  14. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  15. Carlos Castro-Iragorri & Juan Felipe Peña & Cristhian Rodríguez, 2021. "A Segmented and Observable Yield Curve for Colombia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(2), pages 179-200.
  16. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
  17. Jiazi Chen & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2022. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints: The Role of the Demographic Age Structure," Working Papers 2022-06-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  18. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
  19. Cao, Shuo & Crump, Richard K. & ,, 2020. "Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 15122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
  21. Raviv, Eran, 2015. "Prediction bias correction for dynamic term structure models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 112-115.
  22. Richard K Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2025. "Deconstructing the Yield Curve," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 38(2), pages 381-421.
  23. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2019. "Bond and option prices with permanent shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 272-290.
  24. Engle, Robert & Roussellet, Guillaume & Siriwardane, Emil, 2017. "Scenario generation for long run interest rate risk assessment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 333-347.
  25. Gaus, Eric & Sinha, Arunima, 2018. "What does the yield curve imply about investor expectations?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 248-265.
  26. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.
  27. Joseph P Byrne & Shuo Cao, 2024. "Decomposing Uncertainty in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 428-449.
  28. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
  29. Mirko Abbritti & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2016. "Term Structure Persistence," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 331-352.
  30. Christensen, Bent Jesper & van der Wel, Michel, 2019. "An asset pricing approach to testing general term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 165-191.
  31. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  32. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
  33. João F. Caldeira & Guilherme V. Moura & , Fabricio Tourrucôo, 2016. "Forecasting the yield curve with the arbitrage-free dynamic Nelson-Siegel model: Brazilian evidence," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 17(2), pages 221-237.
  34. Joslin, Scott & Le, Anh & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2013. "Why Gaussian macro-finance term structure models are (nearly) unconstrained factor-VARs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 604-622.
  35. repec:erh:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:77-99 is not listed on IDEAS
  36. Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
  37. Duffee, Gregory, 2013. "Forecasting Interest Rates," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 385-426, Elsevier.
  38. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, February.
  39. Koopman, Siem Jan & van der Wel, Michel, 2013. "Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 676-694.
  40. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
  41. Fausto Vieira & Fernando Chague, Marcelo Fernandes, 2016. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with forward-looking indicators for the yield curve in the US," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2016_31, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  42. Scott Joslin & Anh Le, 2021. "Interest Rate Volatility and No-Arbitrage Affine Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7391-7416, December.
  43. Håvard Hungnes, 2016. "Fractionality and co-fractionality between Government Bond yields," Discussion Papers 838, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  44. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-71, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  45. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  46. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2024. "An affine model for short rates when monetary policy is path dependent," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 151-201, July.
  47. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "How Germany benefits the most from its Eurozone membership," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1074-1088.
  48. Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "Bond Risk Premia and Restrictions on Risk Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, October.
  49. repec:wyi:wpaper:002047 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2012. "Identification and estimation of Gaussian affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 315-331.
  51. Chen, Jiazi & Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin, 2025. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints: The role of the functional demographic age distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 153-174.
  52. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
  53. Gregory R. Duffee, 2011. "Information in (and not in) the Term Structure," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 2895-2934.
  54. repec:erh:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:78-100 is not listed on IDEAS
  55. Shin, Minchul & Zhong, Molin, 2017. "Does realized volatility help bond yield density prediction?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 373-389.
  56. Konstantinos Bisiotis & Stelios Psarakis & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Affine Term Structure Models: Applications in Portfolio Optimization and Change Point Detection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-33, November.
  57. Wali ULLAH & Khadija Malik BARI, 2018. "The Term Structure of Government Bond Yields in an Emerging Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-28, September.
  58. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
  59. Fernandes, Marcelo & Vieira, Fausto, 2019. "A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with forward-looking macroeconomic factors for the yield curve in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
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