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The good, the bad and the impaired: A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Karen Á. Vignisdóttir, 2012. "Households’ position in the financial crisis in Iceland. Analysis based on a nationwide household-level database," Economics wp59, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  2. Rory McElligott & Martin O'Brien, 2014. "The evolution of loan level data in Ireland," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Porto Workshop on "Integrated management of micro-databases", volume 37, pages 18-23, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Kelly, Robert & O'Toole, Conor, 2016. "Lending Conditions and Loan Default: What Can We Learn From UK Buy-to-Let Loans?," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
  4. McCann, Fergal & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2012. "Determinants of SME Loan Default: The Importance of Borrower-Level Heterogeneity," Research Technical Papers 06/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
  5. O'Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2020. "Review of the Rebuilding Ireland Home Loan scheme," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS104.
  6. Rebecca Williams, 2017. "Business cycle review: 2008 to present day," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 80, pages 1-22, March.
  7. Tsiropoulos, Vasilis, 2018. "A Vulnerability Analysis for Mortgaged Irish Households," Financial Stability Notes 2/FS/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
  8. Gaffney, Edward & McCann, Fergal, 2018. "The cyclicality in SICR: mortgage modelling under IFRS 9," Research Technical Papers 16/RT/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
  9. Lozej, Matija & Onorante, Luca & Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2023. "Countercyclical capital regulation in a small open economy DSGE model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 1230-1267, July.
  10. Victor Medina-Olivares & Wangzhen Xia & Stefan Lessmann & Nadja Klein, 2026. "Semi-structured multi-state delinquency model for mortgage default," Papers 2603.26309, arXiv.org.
  11. Gaffney, Edward & Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal, 2014. "A transitions-based framework for estimating expected credit losses," Research Technical Papers 16/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
  12. Lydon, Reamonn, 2013. "Do households with debt problems spend less?," Economic Letters 02/EL/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
  13. McCann, Fergal & Ryan, Ellen, 2016. "Originating Loan to Value ratios and the resilience of mortgage portfolios," Economic Letters 10/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
  14. Reamonn Lyndon & Yvonne McCarthy, 2013. "What Lies Beneath? Understanding Recent Trends in Irish Mortgage Arrears," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 117-150.
  15. Gaffney, Edward & McCann, Fergal, 2019. "The cyclicality in SICR: mortgage modelling under IFRS 9," ESRB Working Paper Series 92, European Systemic Risk Board.
  16. McGuinness, Anne, 2011. "The Distribution of Property Level Mortgage Arrears," Economic Letters 06/EL/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
  17. González, Marta Ramos & Ureña, Antonio Partal & Fernández-Aguado, Pilar Gómez, 2023. "Forecasting for regulatory credit loss derived from the COVID-19 pandemic: A machine learning approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  18. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal, 2016. "Some defaults are deeper than others: Understanding long-term mortgage arrears," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 15-27.
  19. O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Repayment capacity, debt service ratios and mortgage default: An exploration in crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  20. Kelly, Jane & Mazza, Elena, 2019. "Mortgage Repayment Affordability across the Income Distribution," Financial Stability Notes 15/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
  21. Arno Botha & Conrad Beyers & Pieter de Villiers, 2019. "A procedure for loss-optimising default definitions across simulated credit risk scenarios," Papers 1907.12615, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
  22. Robert Kelly & Kieran McQuinn, 2014. "On the Hook for Impaired Bank Lending: Do Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages Affect the Net Cost of a Fiscal Stimulus?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 95-128, September.
  23. Arno Botha & Tanja Verster & Roland Breedt, 2025. "Modelling the term-structure of default risk under IFRS 9 within a multistate regression framework," Papers 2502.14479, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
  24. Arno Botha & Conrad Beyers & Pieter de Villiers, 2020. "The loss optimisation of loan recovery decision times using forecast cash flows," Papers 2010.05601, arXiv.org.
  25. Kelly, Robert & O’Toole, Conor, 2018. "Mortgage default, lending conditions and macroprudential policy: Loan-level evidence from UK buy-to-lets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 322-335.
  26. Arno Botha & Tanja Verster, 2025. "Approaches for modelling the term-structure of default risk under IFRS 9: A tutorial using discrete-time survival analysis," Papers 2507.15441, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
  27. Bocchio, Cecilia & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2023. "The impact of macroeconomic scenarios on recurrent delinquency: A stress testing framework of multi-state models for mortgages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1655-1677.
  28. Kelly, Robert & McQuinn, Kieran, 2013. "On the hook for impaired bank lending: Do sovereign-bank inter-linkages affect the fiscal multiplier?," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
  29. Kelly, Jane & Le Blanc, Julia & Lydon, Reamonn, 2018. "Pockets of risk in European Housing Markets: then and now," Research Technical Papers 12/RT/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
  30. Dimitrios Laliotis & Alejandro Buesa & Miha Leber & Javier Población, 2020. "An agent-based model for the assessment of LTV caps," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 1721-1748, October.
  31. Martina Lawless & Fergal McCann, 2013. "Determinants of Default: Evidence from a Sector-level Panel of Irish SME Loans," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(4), pages 473-488.
  32. Slaymaker, Rachel & O'Toole, Conor & McQuinn, Kieran & Fahy, Mike, 2018. "Monetary policy normalisation and mortgage arrears in a recovering economy: The case of the Irish residential market," Papers WP613, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  33. Morell, Joe & Rice, Jonathan & Shaw, Frances, 2022. "A Framework for Macroprudential Stress Testing," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
  34. Richard Chamboko & Jorge M. Bravo, 2016. "On the modelling of prognosis from delinquency to normal performance on retail consumer loans," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(4), pages 264-287, December.
  35. McCann, Fergal, 2014. "Modelling default transitions in the UK mortgage market," Research Technical Papers 18/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
  36. David Byrne & Robert Kelly & Conor O'Toole, 2022. "How Does Monetary Policy Pass‐Through Affect Mortgage Default? Evidence from the Irish Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2081-2101, October.
  37. Pedersen, Michael, 2018. "Credit risk and monetary pass-through—Evidence from Chile," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 144-158.
  38. Donnery, Sharon & Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Greaney, Darren & McCann, Fergal & O'Keeffe, Micheal, 2018. "Resolving Non-Performing Loans in Ireland: 2010-2018," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 54-70, April.
  39. Tsiropoulos, Vasilis, 2018. "A Vulnerability Analysis for Mortgaged Irish Households," Financial Stability Notes 02-18, Central Bank of Ireland.
  40. Merike Kukk, 2023. "What are the triggers for arrears on debt over a business cycle? Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2811-2833, July.
  41. Hallissey, Niamh & Kelly, Robert & O'Malley, Terry, 2014. "Macro-prudential Tools and Credit Risk of Property Lending at Irish banks," Economic Letters 10/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
  42. McCann, Fergal, 2017. "Resolving a Non-Performing Loan crisis: The ongoing case of the Irish mortgage market," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
  43. Michael Pedersen, 2016. "Pass-Through, Expectations, and Risks. What Affects Chilean Banks’ Interest Rates?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 780, Central Bank of Chile.
  44. Joyce, John & McCann, Fergal, 2016. "Model-based estimates of the resilience of mortgages at origination," Economic Letters 09/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
  45. Tiago Pinheiro & Carolina Nunes, 2025. "Estimating individuals’ default risk in Portugal," Working Papers w202510, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  46. Kelly, Robert & O'Malley, Terence & O'Toole, Conor, 2015. "Designing Macro-prudential Policy in Mortgage Lending: Do First Time Buyers Default Less?," Research Technical Papers 02/RT/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
  47. Richard Chamboko & Jorge Miguel Bravo, 2020. "A Multi-State Approach to Modelling Intermediate Events and Multiple Mortgage Loan Outcomes," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-29, June.
  48. Calabrese, Raffaella & Crook, Jonathan, 2020. "Spatial contagion in mortgage defaults: A spatial dynamic survival model with time and space varying coefficients," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 749-761.
  49. Arno Botha & Conrad Beyers & Pieter de Villiers, 2020. "Simulation-based optimisation of the timing of loan recovery across different portfolios," Papers 2009.11064, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
  50. Gross, Marco & Población, Javier, 2017. "Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 510-528.
  51. Mark Cassidy & Niamh Hallissey, 2016. "The Introduction of Macroprudential Measures for the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(2), pages 271-297.
  52. Kelly, Jane & Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2014. "Interest-only mortgages in Ireland," Economic Letters 05/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
  53. Richard Waldron & Declan Redmond, 2016. "Stress in Suburbia: Counting the Costs of Ireland's Property Crash and Mortgage Arrears Crisis," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 107(4), pages 484-501, September.
  54. Peter Lindner & Aleksandra Riedl, 2026. "What drives mortgage default in Europe? The role of liquidity, equity and debt enforcement (Peter Lindner, Aleksandra Riedl)," Working Papers 279, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  55. Caselli, Stefano & Corbetta, Guido & Cucinelli, Doriana & Rossolini, Monica, 2021. "A survival analysis of public guaranteed loans: Does financial intermediary matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  56. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Nonbank Sector Stability Analyses," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/317, International Monetary Fund.
  57. Tobias Neumann, 2018. "Mortgages: estimating default correlation and forecasting default risk," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 708, Bank of England.
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