Modelling methodology and forecast failure

Citations

Cited by:

1. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
2. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2012. "Modelling the impact of aggregate financial shocks external to the Chinese economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
3. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
   • David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
   • Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.
   • Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
   • David Hendry & Michael P. Clements & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
4. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
   • David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
   • Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 0082, European Central Bank.
   • Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
   • David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
5. WAN, Shui-Ki & WANG, Shin-Huei & WOO, Chi-Keung, 2012. "Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012039, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
6. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
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   • Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
7. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
8. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2012. "Modelling the impact of aggregate financial shocks external to the Chinese economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
9. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Predicting stock returns in the presence of COVID-19 pandemic: The role of health news," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
10. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 637-661, October.
    • Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010. "New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 7877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
11. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
12. David Hendry & Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Model Identification and Non-unique Structure," Economics Papers 2002-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
13. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2016. "Economic Forecasting," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10740.
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14. Rishabh Choudhary & Chetan Ghate & Md Arbaj Meman, 2023. "Forecasting Core Inflation in India: A Four-Step Approach," IEG Working Papers 461, Institute of Economic Growth.
15. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
16. G. Solomon Osho, 2019. "A General Framework for Time Series Forecasting Model Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-ARIMA and Transfer Functions," International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(6), pages 1-23, November.
17. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine & Sebudde, Rachel, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10739, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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18. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
19. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_025 is not listed on IDEAS
21. Tannura, Michael A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2008. "Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 37501, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
22. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
23. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
24. Carrera, Cesar & Ledesma, Alan, 2015. "Proyección de la inflación agregada con modelos de vectores autorregresivos bayesianos," Working Papers 2015-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
25. Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Evaluating a Central Bank’s Recent Forecast Failure," Memorandum 22/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
26. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
27. Cesar Carrera & Alan Ledesma, 2015. "Aggregate Inflation Forecast with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 50, Peruvian Economic Association.
28. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2007. "Automatic Leading Indicators (ALIs) versus Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs): Comparison of Inflation and GDP growth Forecasting," EcoMod2007 23900072, EcoMod.
29. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
30. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2014. "Testing for structural stability of factor augmented forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 100-118.
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31. Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & Michael P. Clements & Jeremy Smith, 2003. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 359-375.
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32. Heather M Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "VARs, Cointegration and Common Cycle Restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
33. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.