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Reformen im Niedriglohnsektor: Eine integrierte CGE-Mikrosimulationsstudie der Arbeitsangebots- und Beschäftigungseffekte

  • Franz, Wolfgang
  • Guertzgen, Nicole
  • Schubert, Stefanie
  • Clauss, Markus

Ziel dieses Beitrags ist die Quantifizierung der mit der Einführung des Arbeitslosengeldes II verbundenen Arbeitsangebots- und Beschäftigungseffekte. Zusätzlich wird ein Reformszenario simuliert, welches die Anreizstruktur im Niedriglohnbereich verbessern soll. Methodisch wird ein Mikrosimulationsmodell mit einem allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodell kombiniert. Dieses Vorgehen vereint die Vorteile der Mikrosimulation durch die detaillierte Berücksichtigung der Haushalte auf Basis der Daten des Sozioökonomischen Panels mit den Vorteilen eines allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells. So werden neben den Erstrundeneffekten auch Rückkopplungseffekte aufgrund von Preisänderungen mit eingeschlossen. Für die Hartz IV-Reform lässt sich auf Basis der Simulationsergebnisse ein geringfügiger Beschäftigungsgewinn in Höhe von 45.000 Personen quantifizieren. Demgegenüber errechnet sich für das alternative Szenario, welches eine Absenkung der Regelsätze sowie der Transferentzugsquote vorsieht, ein Beschäftigungsgewinn von 190.000 Personen.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 07-085.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7097
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  1. Arntz, Melanie & Clauss, Markus & Kraus, Margit & Schnabel, Reinhold & Spermann, Alexander & Wiemers, Jürgen, 2007. "Arbeitsangebotseffekte und Verteilungswirkungen der Hartz-IV-Reform," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200710, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  2. Melanie Arntz & Stefan Boeters & Nicole Gürtzgen & Stefanie Schubert, 2006. "Analysing Welfare Reform in a Microsimulation-AGE Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 109, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2003. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  4. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  5. Immervoll, Herwig & Kleven, Henrik & Kreiner, Claus Thustrup & Saez, Emmanuel, 2004. "Welfare Reform in European Countries: A Micro-Simulation Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Arntz, Melanie & Boeters, Stefan & Gürtzgen, Nicole & Schubert, Stefanie, 2008. "Analysing welfare reform in a microsimulation-AGE model: The value of disaggregation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 422-439, May.
  7. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695 Elsevier.
  8. Koskela, Erkki & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1996. "Tax progression is good for employment in popular models of trade union behaviour," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 65-80, August.
  9. Stefan Boeters & Reinhold Schnabel & Nicole Gürtzgen, 2006. "Reforming Social Welfare in Germany: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 363-388, November.
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